Polydata

@Flat-Badger

#1,18493

0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397

726d· 3022 markets · 14889 tradesVol: $29,448,5502026-07-20T06:04
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

93
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 96%20/20
Profit Factor 343.94x15/15
Sharpe 0.4308/15
Sortino 107.36310/10
EV $+2.35610/10
HHI 8510/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Flat-Badger is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1184 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $165,667.07. Over 1024 days, they executed 14,889 trades across 397 markets, generating substantial total volume of nearly $29.5 million. Their portfolio value currently stands at $203,777, reflecting consistent growth and an upward equity trend. With a Smart Score of 93/100, Flat-Badger is classified as an elite trader, combining both manual and automated trading techniques (Bot Score 55/100).

Flat-Badger’s trading style is characterized by a preference for diverse markets, avoiding weather-related categories, and maintaining a balanced risk profile. Their win rate of 64.3% suggests consistent success, though the low profit factor of 0.12 indicates relatively small profits per trade compared to losses. The trader exhibits a tactical approach with a 38% sell rate and notable badges such as Sniper and DCA Master, implying a mix of precision entries and dollar-cost averaging. Flat-Badger’s Sharpe ratio of 0.43 points to moderate risk-adjusted returns, and zero days of max drawdown duration suggest strong capital preservation.

The key strength of Flat-Badger lies in their disciplined trading and steady upward equity growth, supported by a long win streak and elite Smart Score. However, the low profit factor and semi-automated strategy introduce some concerns about trade efficiency and reliance on bot-assisted decisions. Overall, Flat-Badger demonstrates a solid combination of volume, consistency, and risk management, making them a noteworthy participant in the Polymarket ecosystem.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 96%
Profitable
PnL $+165,667
DCA Master
avg 23.4 entries/market
Win Streak
117 wins in a row
Whale
$6,269,865
Consistent
103/107 days
High Roller
$6,123/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,626,583$-19,224Vol: $14,775,398
🎭 CULTURE#48$116,821Vol: $8,514,044
⚽ SPORTS#5,176$10,235Vol: $1,723,384
📈 ECONOMICS#323$21,119Vol: $1,321,830
💰 FINANCE#679$7,971Vol: $1,003,964
💻 TECH#101$15,775Vol: $805,752
₿ CRYPTO#8,556$5,590Vol: $591,158
🌤️ WEATHER#356$5,487Vol: $367,681
📢 MENTIONS#596$2,677Vol: $216,955

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$165,667
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$29,448,550
Total Redeem
$849,334
Portfolio
$203,777
Predictions
3022
total markets
Trades
9270B / 5619S
Daily Volume
$6,123
Account Age
726d
since Jul 24, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$388
Vol: $4,386
Week
$388
Vol: $38,784
Month
$11,527
Vol: $729,760
All Time
$165,667
Vol: $29,448,550

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
97%
216W / 7L events
Realized PnL
$449,061
Win Rate
64%
202W / 112L
Profit Factor
0.12x
Avg Win
$1,585
Avg Loss
$-23,760

Top Winners

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? $35,845
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?$27,596
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$20,010
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$14,804
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?$13,886
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater$12,615
Maduro out in 2025?$12,250
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidentia$8,255
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?$8,182
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between$8,115

Top Losers

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$-104,995
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$-97,609
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?$-97,606
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? $-94,312
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?$-87,945
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?$-84,817
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?$-74,437
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$-72,419
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$-62,315
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?$-61,017

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.430
Sortino
107.363
HHI
85
Diversified
EV per $1
$2.356
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
2.4%
Top-5 markets
9.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
36.5
Active
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
32.5m
between trades
Night Trading
30%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.44
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 162s — typical for humanSize CV 2.44 — diverse, typical for human30% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.05 — human randomness36 trades/day — suspiciously high330 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
23.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
81 entries
<=2
109 entries
<=5
166 entries
<=10
208 entries
<=20
273 entries
<=50
352 entries
>50
45 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.5%
Mid (20-55c)0.5%
High (>55c)98%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 24.6%

Los Angeles$211
Spacey$11
New York City$-78,134
Other$-2,263,075

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
242

Single bracket

<=1
167 brackets
<=2
214 brackets
<=3
226 brackets
<=4
234 brackets
<=5
237 brackets
<=8
240 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
6/7/2025, 2:15:16 AM1 trades$3590 min
6/9/2025, 10:07:51 PM1 trades$3590 min
7/15/2025, 5:28:15 AM1 trades$9000 min
7/15/2025, 7:17:47 AM1 trades$450 min
7/15/2025, 8:09:18 AM1 trades$10 min
7/15/2025, 9:39:33 AM1 trades$940 min
7/15/2025, 10:08:29 AM1 trades$90 min
7/15/2025, 10:40:21 AM2 trades$1783 min
7/15/2025, 11:15:21 AM1 trades$90 min
7/15/2025, 12:17:29 PM1 trades$280 min
7/15/2025, 1:08:35 PM1 trades$4710 min
7/16/2025, 10:12:20 AM1 trades$1,7090 min
7/19/2025, 8:52:00 AM1 trades$7900 min
7/19/2025, 9:38:52 AM1 trades$370 min
7/19/2025, 10:41:22 AM1 trades$100 min
7/19/2025, 11:41:02 AM1 trades$100 min
7/19/2025, 12:56:10 PM1 trades$940 min
7/19/2025, 1:46:04 PM1 trades$5190 min
7/19/2025, 2:38:24 PM1 trades$10 min
7/19/2025, 4:45:08 PM1 trades$4200 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-09
09-01
12-10
03-01
06-16
12-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
37.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 23.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event