Polydata
Data is 4 days old — refreshing in background...

@Flickering-Salary

#2,907,22464

0xc58df0b98437f613e20916c242403e0a6c009373

724d· 1368 markets · 8516 tradesVol: $40,541,5722026-06-23T16:04
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

64
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 41%5/20
Profit Factor 2.08x15/15
Sharpe 0.2585/15
Sortino 0.2953/10
EV $+1.04710/10
HHI 11510/10
Profit Days 55%6/10
DD/Peak 22%10/10

Summary

Flickering-Salary is a highly active trader on Polymarket, with 8,516 trades executed across 409 markets over 711 days. Despite a high volume of $40.5 million, their net PnL stands at negative $654,693, placing them at #2,907,224 on the global leaderboard. Their portfolio value is $61,845 with a Sharpe ratio of 0.26, indicating modest risk-adjusted returns. The trader holds a Smart Score of 64, suggesting generally good trading decisions, and a Profit Factor of 16.35, reflecting strong win-to-loss ratios.

The trading style of Flickering-Salary is characterized by a contrarian approach, supported by badges like "Contrarian" and "Diamond Hands." They maintain a very high win rate of 91.7% and a low sell percentage of 4%, showing a preference for holding positions and dollar-cost averaging. The semi-automated strategy blends bot and manual inputs, as indicated by a Bot Score of 55. Their activity avoids weather markets entirely, focusing instead on other event types, with no significant drawdown durations, suggesting timely exits or portfolio adjustments.

Strengths for Flickering-Salary include exceptional consistency and a disciplined, long-term holding pattern, which contributes to their impressive win streaks and low drawdowns. However, the overall equity trend is downward, with substantial unrealized losses despite high volume, signaling potential risk from overexposure or unfavorable market conditions. The combination of a high win rate and negative net PnL may reflect small gains offset by occasional large losses, posing challenges for sustained profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Contrarian
67% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
4% sell
DCA Master
avg 19.9 entries/market
Win Streak
19 wins in a row
Whale
$2,973,074
High Roller
$4,182/day
Cool Head
DD 22%

Categories

2
SPORTS#1,742,682$-637,618Vol: $37,634,855
🏛️ POLITICS#1,606,338$-35,148Vol: $679,824

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-654,693
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$40,541,572
Total Redeem
$1,099,577
Portfolio
$61,846
Predictions
1368
total markets
Trades
8148B / 368S
Daily Volume
$4,182
Account Age
724d
since Jul 3, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-164,963
Vol: $112,520
Week
$-558
Vol: $112,520
Month
$-112,016
Vol: $2,527,475
All Time
$-654,693
Vol: $40,541,572

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
44%
240W / 301L events
Realized PnL
$4,562,076
Win Rate
92%
44W / 4L
Profit Factor
16.35x
Avg Win
$12,784
Avg Loss
$-8,599

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $279,862 (53% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?$146,667
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main C$95,442
Spurs vs. Thunder$37,754
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, M$31,053
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)$22,945
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar$20,326
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi$19,426
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?$18,633
Will FC Baník Ostrava win on 2026-05-02?$17,526
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterw$16,333

Top Losers

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?$-33,086
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev$-716
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins$-361
Bruins vs. Lightning$-231

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.258
Sortino
0.294
HHI
115
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.047
Kelly %
87.4%
Half-Kelly
43.7%
Top-1 market
3.8%
Top-5 markets
17%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
27.3
Active
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
16s
between trades
Avg Gap
18.4m
between trades
Night Trading
27%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.95
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.4

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 16s — typical for humanSize CV 6.95 — diverse, typical for human27% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.10 — human randomness27 trades/day — suspiciously high616 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
19.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
81 entries
<=2
115 entries
<=5
180 entries
<=10
244 entries
<=20
299 entries
<=50
377 entries
>50
32 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)15.4%
Mid (20-55c)65.6%
High (>55c)19.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 40.5%

Other$507,206
Madrid$20,891
Toronto$0
Paris$0
Milan$0
Miami$0
Hong Kong$0
Seattle$0
Dallas$0
Chicago$0
Los Angeles$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
344

Single bracket

<=1
295 brackets
<=2
335 brackets
<=3
339 brackets
<=4
343 brackets
<=5
343 brackets
<=8
344 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
8/15/2025, 2:56:58 PM7 trades$5711 min
8/15/2025, 3:14:00 PM4 trades$162 min
8/15/2025, 3:21:26 PM1 trades$10 min
8/15/2025, 3:26:50 PM8 trades$10,5925 min
8/16/2025, 12:02:54 AM4 trades$12,4787 min
8/16/2025, 4:31:22 PM6 trades$7,3351 min
8/16/2025, 4:38:06 PM1 trades$1080 min
8/16/2025, 4:45:22 PM4 trades$5386 min
8/16/2025, 5:50:52 PM2 trades$27,2001 min
8/16/2025, 6:18:08 PM7 trades$5,32312 min
8/16/2025, 6:35:24 PM6 trades$1,05412 min
8/16/2025, 6:58:02 PM1 trades$5770 min
8/16/2025, 7:06:48 PM1 trades$870 min
8/16/2025, 7:28:00 PM2 trades$125 min
8/16/2025, 7:39:46 PM1 trades$2350 min
8/16/2025, 7:47:06 PM1 trades$9180 min
8/16/2025, 7:53:48 PM13 trades$2,20615 min
8/16/2025, 10:30:08 PM13 trades$18,00819 min
8/21/2025, 5:13:19 PM1 trades$1940 min
8/21/2025, 5:23:45 PM1 trades$520 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-22
08-25
12-02
02-08
04-05
06-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 19.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event