Polydata
Flimsy-Shop

@Flimsy-Shop

#1,77236

0x843a6da3886cf889435cf0920659a00a68db8070

726d· 1037 markets · 19902 tradesVol: $12,923,133 @default7172026-07-18T03:19
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

36
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 0.44x0/15
HHI 25810/10
Profit Days 53%6/10
DD/Peak 32170%0/10

Summary

Flimsy-Shop is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1772 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 798 days, they have executed nearly 20,000 trades across 302 different markets, generating a net profit of approximately $106,000 from a total volume exceeding $12.9 million. Despite the substantial trading activity, Flimsy-Shop’s overall performance metrics such as a below-average Smart Score of 36/100 and a negative Sharpe Ratio of -0.11 suggest challenges in consistent risk-adjusted returns.

The trader’s strategy appears diversified across many markets, focusing on a balanced risk profile with a win rate just above 50% and a profit factor below 1 (0.44), indicating more losses than gains in dollar terms per trade. Flimsy-Shop shows a preference for active trading with an equity trend that is slowly upward but employs a contrarian style combined with elements of dollar-cost averaging and occasional sniper-like precision. The sell percentage of 31% suggests a relatively patient holding approach, while the absence of weather market trades points to a focus on other categories within Polymarket.

Flimsy-Shop’s strengths lie in their high trade volume and broad market participation, which supports an upward equity trend despite suboptimal risk metrics. However, the low profit factor and negative Sharpe Ratio highlight potential issues with managing downside risk and trade quality. The presence of badges like “Contrarian” and “Lottery Player” suggests a willingness to take speculative bets that may increase volatility in returns. Overall, while Flimsy-Shop demonstrates persistence and some profitable outcomes, their performance may be vulnerable to adverse market conditions and inconsistent trade execution.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+105,962
Lottery Player
43% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
60% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 45.5 entries/market
Win Streak
49 wins in a row
Whale
$2,333,512
High Roller
$2,924/day

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#855$59,134Vol: $6,841,966
🎭 CULTURE#430$17,885Vol: $3,579,950
CRYPTO#3,803$12,221Vol: $926,545
📈 ECONOMICS#542$10,955Vol: $853,427
💻 TECH#1,208$1,188Vol: $173,188
📢 MENTIONS#678$2,243Vol: $147,169
SPORTS#1,751,266$-319Vol: $139,911
💰 FINANCE#7,984$396Vol: $93,039
🌤️ WEATHER#866$2,085Vol: $89,241

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$105,962
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$12,923,133
Total Redeem
$260,749
Portfolio
$210
Predictions
1037
total markets
Trades
13729B / 6173S
Daily Volume
$2,924
Account Age
726d
since Jul 24, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $0
Week
$-26
Vol: $0
Month
$-35
Vol: $0
All Time
$105,962
Vol: $12,923,133

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
174W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$469,785
Win Rate
51%
147W / 141L
Profit Factor
0.44x
Avg Win
$3,569
Avg Loss
$-8,434

Top Winners

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$208,470
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination$183,598
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$45,434
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?$7,353
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?$6,756
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 20?$6,442
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?$6,043
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?$5,681
Will Biden pardon SBF?$4,261
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential $4,252

Top Losers

Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$-176,529
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?$-174,388
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$-96,617
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?$-69,302
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?$-55,449
US military action against Iran before August?$-46,162
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? $-30,283
US military action against Iran before July?$-25,912
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$-22,346
US military action against Iran by Sunday?$-20,035

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.113
Sortino
-0.094
HHI
258
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.285
Kelly %
21.9%
Half-Kelly
11.0%
Top-1 market
7.9%
Top-5 markets
29.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
33.2
Active
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
23.2m
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.74
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.0

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 166s — typical for humanSize CV 3.74 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.92 — human randomness33 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
45.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
51 entries
<=2
74 entries
<=5
110 entries
<=10
145 entries
<=20
192 entries
<=50
239 entries
>50
63 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)43.4%
Mid (20-55c)18.6%
High (>55c)38%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 42.5%

Up or Down$6,442
Alaska$761
New York City$-3,600
Other$-668,131

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
232

Single bracket

<=1
199 brackets
<=2
216 brackets
<=3
224 brackets
<=4
227 brackets
<=5
228 brackets
<=8
231 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/24/2024, 11:44:11 AM1 trades$130 min
10/24/2024, 4:16:19 PM1 trades$60 min
10/24/2024, 8:25:29 PM1 trades$270 min
10/26/2024, 4:12:41 AM1 trades$120 min
10/26/2024, 5:07:43 AM1 trades$160 min
10/26/2024, 5:16:37 AM2 trades$81 min
10/26/2024, 5:23:23 AM1 trades$40 min
10/26/2024, 5:31:39 AM1 trades$20 min
10/26/2024, 5:38:25 AM1 trades$00 min
10/26/2024, 6:12:13 AM1 trades$360 min
10/26/2024, 7:18:54 AM1 trades$70 min
10/26/2024, 7:30:04 AM1 trades$60 min
10/26/2024, 8:31:19 AM1 trades$900 min
10/26/2024, 8:36:33 AM4 trades$345 min
10/26/2024, 11:45:30 AM1 trades$120 min
10/26/2024, 12:18:16 PM2 trades$162 min
10/26/2024, 3:45:35 PM1 trades$280 min
10/26/2024, 4:46:30 PM1 trades$430 min
10/26/2024, 4:59:05 PM4 trades$152 min
10/26/2024, 5:08:53 PM2 trades$102 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-24
01-20
04-10
06-24
08-21
12-10
04-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 45.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event