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Foolish-Contrail

@Foolish-Contrail

#12783

0x1cc16713196d456f86fa9c7387dd326a7f73b8df

713d· 942 markets · 7759 tradesVol: $21,211,5602026-06-29T12:56
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

83
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 91%20/20
Profit Factor 4.81x15/15
Sharpe 0.2525/15
Sortino 0.3564/10
EV $+2.53410/10
HHI 26610/10
Profit Days 92%10/10
DD/Peak 14%10/10

Summary

Foolish-Contrail is a well-established trader on Polymarket, ranked #127 globally with a net profit of over $1.16 million. They have maintained consistent activity over 872 days, executing 7,759 trades across 235 markets and accumulating a total volume exceeding $21 million. Their portfolio value stands at $174,000, reflecting steady growth, supported by a solid smart score of 83 out of 100, indicating strong trading skills and decision-making.

This trader favors a contrarian style, as suggested by badges like "Contrarian" and "Sniper," and appears to engage in high-frequency trading with relatively quick turnaround given zero max drawdown duration days. While Foolish-Contrail holds a moderate win rate of 42.9%, their profit factor of 1.13 shows a slight edge in profitability. They do not participate in weather markets, focusing instead on other event types, and tend to sell 28% of their holdings, suggesting a balanced approach between holding and exiting positions. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.25 indicates modest risk-adjusted returns.

Foolish-Contrail's strengths lie in their consistent upward equity trend and ability to generate profits over a long period, supported by a notable win streak badge. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and modest profit factor imply that profitability comes with moderate risk exposure. Additionally, the low bot score suggests human decision-making, which can be both an advantage in adaptability and a risk if emotions influence trades. Overall, Foolish-Contrail demonstrates solid performance with room for improvement in risk management.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 91%
Profitable
PnL $+1,163,600
Lottery Player
34% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
59% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
Whale
$3,725,714
Consistent
110/119 days
High Roller
$4,273/day
Cool Head
DD 14%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#36$965,521Vol: $14,590,846
📈 ECONOMICS#155$39,499Vol: $2,424,123
🎭 CULTURE#159$45,003Vol: $1,312,475
CRYPTO#6,742$6,964Vol: $961,908
📢 MENTIONS#5$128,714Vol: $859,400
💰 FINANCE#913$5,612Vol: $360,171
💻 TECH#244,603$-21,576Vol: $348,715
SPORTS#1,759,938$-4,875Vol: $261,767
🌤️ WEATHER#285,512$-1,530Vol: $19,705

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,163,600
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$21,211,560
Total Redeem
$710,084
Portfolio
$174,083
Predictions
942
total markets
Trades
5578B / 2181S
Daily Volume
$4,273
Account Age
713d
since Jul 19, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-186
Vol: $30,000
Week
$-186
Vol: $30,000
Month
$567,780
Vol: $1,479,446
All Time
$1,163,600
Vol: $21,211,560

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
94%
190W / 12L events
Realized PnL
$1,560,828
Win Rate
43%
91W / 121L
Profit Factor
1.13x
Avg Win
$15,253
Avg Loss
$-10,123

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $939,048 (575.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$522,818
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$216,269
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$199,961
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?$48,187
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$45,221
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$37,585
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$28,255
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$22,885
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?$21,992
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?$20,008

Top Losers

US forces enter Iran by April 30?$-200,026
US government shutdown Saturday?$-171,216
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?$-110,893
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?$-100,808
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$-93,845
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?$-63,004
Will there be a US Government shutdown? $-42,855
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?$-30,999
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?$-27,106
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration spee$-21,809

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.253
Sortino
0.356
HHI
267
Diversified
EV per $1
$2.534
Kelly %
3.8%
Half-Kelly
1.9%
Top-1 market
7.5%
Top-5 markets
27.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
11.0
Active
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
44.8m
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.00
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 110s — typical for humanSize CV 6.00 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.98 — human randomness11 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
23.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
42 entries
<=2
69 entries
<=5
125 entries
<=10
154 entries
<=20
179 entries
<=50
208 entries
>50
25 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)34.3%
Mid (20-55c)30.7%
High (>55c)35%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 51.6%

Other$163,174
Warsh$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
179

Single bracket

<=1
146 brackets
<=2
168 brackets
<=3
176 brackets
<=4
176 brackets
<=5
176 brackets
<=8
179 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
7/22/2024, 8:07:48 AM1 trades$7560 min
7/22/2024, 2:11:09 PM1 trades$1180 min
7/22/2024, 3:16:15 PM2 trades$985 min
7/23/2024, 5:48:34 AM1 trades$1610 min
7/24/2024, 9:32:28 AM1 trades$5970 min
7/29/2024, 6:33:15 AM1 trades$2280 min
8/12/2024, 6:29:57 PM1 trades$4050 min
8/14/2024, 5:49:47 PM1 trades$6300 min
8/20/2024, 8:11:19 PM1 trades$1220 min
8/21/2024, 7:45:56 AM1 trades$20 min
8/22/2024, 3:03:04 AM1 trades$1120 min
8/23/2024, 6:49:12 AM1 trades$2190 min
8/26/2024, 5:53:41 AM1 trades$2130 min
9/1/2024, 3:52:09 PM1 trades$2100 min
9/3/2024, 6:04:49 AM1 trades$8400 min
9/11/2024, 5:57:12 AM2 trades$1734 min
9/11/2024, 6:12:33 AM1 trades$780 min
9/11/2024, 6:30:07 AM1 trades$7070 min
9/11/2024, 6:46:25 AM1 trades$9750 min
9/11/2024, 8:53:21 AM1 trades$2130 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
09-18
10-27
12-31
02-19
12-10
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
28.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 23.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event