Polydata
Foolish-Contrail

@Foolish-Contrail

#13784

0x1cc16713196d456f86fa9c7387dd326a7f73b8df

715d· 943 markets · 9673 tradesVol: $21,266,3322026-07-02T21:25
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

84
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 91%20/20
Profit Factor 5.93x15/15
Sharpe 0.2204/15
Sortino 0.4725/10
EV $+3.51510/10
HHI 24510/10
Profit Days 92%10/10
DD/Peak 10%10/10

Summary

Foolish-Contrail is a seasoned trader on Polymarket, ranked 137th globally by net profit with a net PnL of over $1.15 million. Over 872 days, they have executed 9,673 trades across 250 different markets, accumulating a total volume exceeding $21 million. Their Smart Score of 84 out of 100 reflects very good trading skill, supported by a profit factor of 1.60 and an upward equity trend. Despite a moderate win rate of 45.8%, Foolish-Contrail has maintained consistent profitability and a portfolio value of approximately $124,000.

The trader’s strategy appears diversified and contrarian, as indicated by badges like “Contrarian” and “DCA Master.” Foolish-Contrail tends to engage in high-volume trading with a relatively low sell percentage (24%), suggesting a preference for holding positions rather than frequent flipping. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.22 points to modest risk-adjusted returns, and the lack of drawdown duration implies effective risk management. The absence of weather market trades signals focus on other event categories, while the "Sniper" badge hints at precise timing in entering or exiting positions.

Foolish-Contrail’s main strengths lie in their ability to generate steady profits across many markets with disciplined risk control and a contrarian edge. However, their moderate win rate and relatively low Sharpe ratio suggest room for improvement in risk-adjusted performance. Additionally, the low Bot Score indicates manual trading, which might limit scalability. Overall, Foolish-Contrail demonstrates skilled, human-driven trading on Polymarket with consistent upward equity growth but moderate volatility exposure.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

10
Sniper
Win Rate 91%
Profitable
PnL $+1,157,761
Lottery Player
44% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
70% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 29.9 entries/market
Win Streak
12 wins in a row
Whale
$3,932,441
Consistent
110/119 days
High Roller
$4,510/day
Cool Head
DD 10%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#36$965,407Vol: $14,590,846
📈 ECONOMICS#157$39,499Vol: $2,424,123
🎭 CULTURE#174$41,610Vol: $1,317,697
CRYPTO#6,764$6,964Vol: $961,908
📢 MENTIONS#5$128,714Vol: $859,400
💰 FINANCE#921$5,612Vol: $360,171
💻 TECH#247,297$-21,576Vol: $348,715
SPORTS#1,782,070$-7,207Vol: $311,317
🌤️ WEATHER#286,908$-1,530Vol: $19,705

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,157,761
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$21,266,332
Total Redeem
$1,199,228
Portfolio
$124,484
Predictions
943
total markets
Trades
7378B / 2295S
Daily Volume
$4,510
Account Age
715d
since Jul 19, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-503
Vol: $0
Week
$-6,025
Vol: $84,772
Month
$-5,381
Vol: $43,222
All Time
$1,157,761
Vol: $21,266,332

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
94%
191W / 12L events
Realized PnL
$1,981,076
Win Rate
46%
99W / 117L
Profit Factor
1.6x
Avg Win
$16,275
Avg Loss
$-8,602

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $939,048 (155.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$522,818
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$216,269
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?$199,961
US forces enter Iran by April 30?$99,974
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$88,688
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?$48,199
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$45,221
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$37,585
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$28,255
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?$22,885

Top Losers

US government shutdown Saturday?$-171,216
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?$-110,893
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?$-100,808
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$-93,845
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?$-56,398
Will there be a US Government shutdown? $-39,149
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?$-36,272
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?$-30,999
Bernie Sanders votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?$-27,106
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? $-19,414

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.220
Sortino
0.472
HHI
245
Diversified
EV per $1
$3.515
Kelly %
7.5%
Half-Kelly
3.7%
Top-1 market
7.1%
Top-5 markets
25.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
13.6
Active
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
38.5m
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.59
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 94s — typical for humanSize CV 6.59 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.98 — human randomness14 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
29.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
49 entries
<=2
74 entries
<=5
130 entries
<=10
163 entries
<=20
191 entries
<=50
217 entries
>50
30 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)44.1%
Mid (20-55c)29.8%
High (>55c)26.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 54.4%

Other$604,802
Warsh$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
187

Single bracket

<=1
150 brackets
<=2
173 brackets
<=3
183 brackets
<=4
184 brackets
<=5
185 brackets
<=8
187 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
7/22/2024, 8:07:48 AM1 trades$7560 min
7/22/2024, 2:11:09 PM1 trades$1180 min
7/22/2024, 3:16:15 PM2 trades$985 min
7/23/2024, 5:48:34 AM1 trades$1610 min
7/24/2024, 9:32:28 AM1 trades$5970 min
7/29/2024, 6:33:15 AM1 trades$2280 min
8/12/2024, 6:29:57 PM1 trades$4050 min
8/14/2024, 5:49:47 PM1 trades$6300 min
8/20/2024, 8:11:19 PM1 trades$1220 min
8/21/2024, 7:45:56 AM1 trades$20 min
8/22/2024, 3:03:04 AM1 trades$1120 min
8/23/2024, 6:49:12 AM1 trades$2190 min
8/26/2024, 5:53:41 AM1 trades$2130 min
9/1/2024, 3:52:09 PM1 trades$2100 min
9/3/2024, 6:04:49 AM1 trades$8400 min
9/11/2024, 5:57:12 AM2 trades$1734 min
9/11/2024, 6:12:33 AM1 trades$780 min
9/11/2024, 6:30:07 AM1 trades$7070 min
9/11/2024, 6:46:25 AM1 trades$9750 min
9/11/2024, 8:53:21 AM1 trades$2130 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
09-18
10-27
12-31
02-19
12-10
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
23.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 29.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event