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@Forthright-Orchid

#2,725,40496

0x1dd63a243da7c85c56fd88dd81a77fc144378577

176d· 1512 markets · 2649 tradesVol: $657,610 @Yokesh_K2026-05-18T07:36
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 95%20/20
Profit Factor 4.21x15/15
Sharpe 0.57011/15
Sortino 1.08610/10
EV $+0.50410/10
HHI 4310/10
Profit Days 78%10/10
DD/Peak 6%10/10

Summary

Forthright-Orchid is a highly active trader on Polymarket, with 2,649 trades executed over 400 days across 815 markets. Despite a substantial trading volume of $657,610, their net PnL stands at -$19,127.41, placing them at rank #2,725,404 on the global leaderboard. Their portfolio value remains stable around $1.12, supported by a strong Smart Score of 96 out of 100, indicating elite trading skills, although the Bot Score suggests they are likely a human trader using a fast interface.

The trader demonstrates a preference for a wide variety of markets rather than focusing on specific sectors, as shown by their 815 markets traded and zero activity in weather markets. Forthright-Orchid’s win rate of 83.1% and profit factor of 4.21 indicate a disciplined, risk-aware approach with a tendency to enter and exit positions quickly, evidenced by zero days of max drawdown duration and a low sell percentage of 16%. Their portfolio’s flat equity trend and moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.57 suggest a cautious, consistent trading style focused on steady outcomes rather than high volatility gains.

Forthright-Orchid’s main strengths lie in their consistency and disciplined risk management, reflected by badges such as Sniper, Contrarian, and Consistent. These traits enable them to maintain a stable equity trend despite the negative net PnL. However, the sizeable negative PnL combined with a low portfolio value highlights potential concerns about capital allocation or market timing. Their likely human status may contribute to slower adaptation in highly dynamic Polymarket environments compared to algorithmic traders.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 95%
Contrarian
73% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
44 wins in a row
Whale
$110,170
Consistent
47/60 days
Cool Head
DD 6%

Categories

8
CRYPTO#1,513,859$-12,588Vol: $397,865
SPORTS#1,644,584$-6,946Vol: $244,388
🌤️ WEATHER#244,811$-54Vol: $6,540
📈 ECONOMICS#596,845$-28Vol: $4,207
🏛️ POLITICS#29,010$400Vol: $1,795
💻 TECH#205,650$-11Vol: $1,223
💰 FINANCE#16,006$101Vol: $1,192
🎭 CULTURE#506,892$-1Vol: $400

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-19,127
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$657,610
Total Redeem
$4,421
Portfolio
$1
Predictions
1512
total markets
Trades
2217B / 432S
Daily Volume
$275
Account Age
176d
since Nov 26, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$8
Vol: $829
Week
$8
Vol: $1,000
Month
$-217
Vol: $35,601
All Time
$-19,127
Vol: $657,610

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
95%
248W / 14L events
Realized PnL
$49,632
Win Rate
83%
241W / 49L
Profit Factor
4.21x
Avg Win
$170
Avg Loss
$-199

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $3,685 (11.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Wizards vs. Nuggets$1,239
Duke Blue Devils vs. Louisville Cardinals$1,226
International ODI: India vs New Zealand (Game 3)$1,220
Brisbane International: Marie Bouzkova vs Paula Badosa$1,078
Cavaliers vs. 76ers$989
ASB Classic: Eliot Spizzirri vs Fabian Marozsan$861
Brisbane International: Kamil Majchrzak vs Reilly Opelka$817
Santiago: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Gonzalo Bueno$757
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$731
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$713

Top Losers

Jazz vs. Mavericks$-1,247
Big Bash League: Perth Scorchers vs Melbourne Renegades (Game 1)$-986
Ethereum Up or Down - December 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$-528
Open Sud de France: Titouan Droguet vs Aleksandar Kovacevic$-463
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$-428
India T20 Series: India vs South Africa (Game 2)$-346
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$-346
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$-337
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$-315
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$-313

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.570
Sortino
1.086
HHI
43
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.504
Kelly %
71.2%
Half-Kelly
35.6%
Top-1 market
1.7%
Top-5 markets
7.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
15.3
Active
Markets / Day
4.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
30.3m
between trades
Night Trading
10%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.13
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.2

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 158s — typical for humanSize CV 2.13 — diverse, typical for human10% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.05 — human randomness15 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.7
Moderate DCA
<=1
465 entries
<=2
604 entries
<=5
732 entries
<=10
775 entries
<=20
808 entries
<=50
815 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)17%
Mid (20-55c)64.7%
High (>55c)18.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 73.4%

Other$31,209
Miami$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
807

Single bracket

<=1
799 brackets
<=2
807 brackets
<=3
807 brackets
<=4
807 brackets
<=5
807 brackets
<=8
807 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/26/2025, 9:29:45 AM2 trades$21 min
11/26/2025, 9:50:01 AM2 trades$165 min
11/26/2025, 11:17:15 AM5 trades$438 min
11/26/2025, 11:48:47 AM4 trades$562 min
11/26/2025, 12:02:09 PM6 trades$3156 min
11/26/2025, 12:26:19 PM1 trades$10 min
11/26/2025, 3:36:53 PM1 trades$200 min
11/26/2025, 4:50:03 PM2 trades$443 min
11/26/2025, 4:59:23 PM1 trades$60 min
11/26/2025, 6:32:19 PM1 trades$400 min
11/27/2025, 2:45:29 AM1 trades$420 min
11/28/2025, 2:16:23 AM3 trades$492 min
11/28/2025, 2:46:03 AM3 trades$610 min
11/29/2025, 10:04:09 PM2 trades$602 min
11/29/2025, 11:03:12 PM4 trades$1355 min
11/29/2025, 11:30:22 PM3 trades$1252 min
11/29/2025, 11:45:04 PM1 trades$1320 min
11/30/2025, 12:24:00 AM1 trades$1000 min
11/30/2025, 12:30:22 AM1 trades$3420 min
11/30/2025, 12:44:51 AM4 trades$7334 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-26
12-16
01-17
02-16
03-23
04-24

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
16.3% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event