Polydata
Glass-Cupcake

@Glass-Cupcake

#17,70676

0xad5057e6947081649c263a538d58899117e63122

207d· 1013 markets · 3453 tradesVol: $614,085 @moon111882026-07-30T12:29
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

76
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 45%7/20
Profit Factor 3.22x15/15
Sharpe 0.54410/15
Sortino 0.5075/10
EV $+2.12810/10
HHI 8398/10
Profit Days 84%10/10
DD/Peak 6%10/10

Summary

Glass-Cupcake is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #17706 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $7,902.10. Over 129 days, they executed 3,453 trades across 395 markets, accumulating a total volume of $614,085. Their smart score of 76/100 indicates strong overall performance, supported by a high win rate of 83.3% and a profit factor nearing 8, which demonstrates consistent profitability.

The trading style of Glass-Cupcake leans heavily towards weather markets, accounting for 96% of their activity, suggesting a specialized niche focus. Their risk profile appears balanced with a Sharpe ratio of 0.54 and zero days of maximum drawdown duration, alongside a low sell percentage of 8%, implying a tendency to hold positions long-term. The semi-bot score of 55/100 indicates a hybrid approach combining automated and manual trades. Their badges reflect a mix of contrarian and dollar-cost averaging strategies, indicating disciplined and patient market engagement.

Glass-Cupcake's key strengths include a strong win rate and stable equity trend, which points to consistent risk management and profitability. However, their reliance on a narrow market segment like weather could pose diversification risks. The relatively modest portfolio value compared to total volume suggests cautious capital deployment. Overall, Glass-Cupcake demonstrates a disciplined and specialized trading approach on Polymarket, with potential vulnerability to market-specific shocks.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+7,902
Lottery Player
87% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
96% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
8% sell
DCA Master
avg 8.1 entries/market
Weather Pro
96% weather
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Consistent
108/128 days
Cool Head
DD 6%

Categories

4
🌤️ WEATHER#236$8,016Vol: $593,324
CRYPTO#1,249,856$-19Vol: $13,848
SPORTS#1,643,146$-77Vol: $6,639
🎭 CULTURE#439,083$-0Vol: $100

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$7,902
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$614,085
Total Redeem
$23,282
Portfolio
$330
Predictions
1013
total markets
Trades
3191B / 262S
Daily Volume
$233
Account Age
207d
since Jan 3, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$89
Vol: $5,371
Week
$-29
Vol: $42,578
Month
$1,673
Vol: $169,221
All Time
$7,902
Vol: $614,085

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
60%
156W / 103L events
Realized PnL
$15,988
Win Rate
83%
30W / 6L
Profit Factor
7.98x
Avg Win
$54
Avg Loss
$-34

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $605 (42.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 17?$229
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 6?$211
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25?$165
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 7?$165
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24?$128
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 17?$121
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 1?$101
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 24?$97
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 5?$74
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 28?$74

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24?$-74
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 6?$-65
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 5?$-40
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 26?$-18
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 6?$-4
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 26?$-3

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.544
Sortino
0.507
HHI
839
Moderate
EV per $1
$2.128
Kelly %
77.4%
Half-Kelly
38.7%
Top-1 market
23.3%
Top-5 markets
52.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
37.3
Active
Markets / Day
4.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
33.7m
between trades
Night Trading
33%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
14.49
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 91s — typical for humanSize CV 14.49 — diverse, typical for human33% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.10 — human randomness37 trades/day — suspiciously high608 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
8.1
Active DCA
<=1
95 entries
<=2
138 entries
<=5
232 entries
<=10
299 entries
<=20
370 entries
<=50
391 entries
>50
4 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)86.5%
Mid (20-55c)10%
High (>55c)3.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 85.9%

Hong Kong$1,060
Shenzhen$230
Guangzhou$74
Other$35
Tel Aviv$25
Warsaw$7
Seoul$0
Tokyo$0
Paris$0
Taipei$0
Ankara$0
Shanghai$0
Chongqing$0
London$0
Wellington$0
Amsterdam$0
Wuhan$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.1
Events covered
184

Moderate coverage

<=1
84 brackets
<=2
127 brackets
<=3
148 brackets
<=4
170 brackets
<=5
181 brackets
<=8
184 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/28/2026, 10:00:10 PM1 trades$00 min
4/28/2026, 11:24:56 PM1 trades$00 min
4/29/2026, 2:58:42 AM1 trades$00 min
4/29/2026, 9:54:10 AM4 trades$50 min
4/29/2026, 11:25:24 AM1 trades$70 min
4/29/2026, 3:27:38 PM1 trades$20 min
5/1/2026, 5:09:48 AM1 trades$40 min
5/3/2026, 5:01:28 AM2 trades$241 min
5/3/2026, 9:24:12 AM3 trades$10 min
5/3/2026, 11:30:18 AM1 trades$30 min
5/3/2026, 11:55:44 AM1 trades$180 min
5/3/2026, 4:16:28 PM4 trades$272 min
5/3/2026, 5:21:50 PM1 trades$30 min
5/4/2026, 12:45:58 AM3 trades$31 min
5/4/2026, 1:09:44 AM1 trades$140 min
5/4/2026, 3:57:30 AM1 trades$50 min
5/4/2026, 4:12:22 AM4 trades$32 min
5/4/2026, 2:57:12 PM1 trades$20 min
5/4/2026, 10:17:06 PM1 trades$30 min
5/5/2026, 12:24:42 AM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-15
05-08
05-29
06-19
07-10
07-30
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
95.9% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
7.6% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 8.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.1 br/event