Polydata
Golden-Unemployment

@Golden-Unemployment

#3,80394

0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da

292d· 789 markets · 3115 tradesVol: $2,167,7592026-07-12T11:01
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

94
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 74%20/20
Profit Factor 8.88x15/15
Sharpe 0.4939/15
Sortino 6.25810/10
EV $+1.86910/10
HHI 17810/10
Profit Days 82%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Golden-Unemployment is an active Polymarket trader with a strong track record, currently ranked #3803 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 608 days, they have executed 3,115 trades across 269 markets, generating a net profit of $44,361.87 on a total volume exceeding $2.1 million. Their win rate is an impressive 85.7%, supported by a profit factor of 1.73, indicating consistent profitability. Despite a modest Sharpe ratio of 0.49, their portfolio value remains stable around $32,724, reflecting disciplined risk management.

This trader favors a diverse range of markets, avoiding weather-related contracts entirely. Golden-Unemployment exhibits a balanced risk profile, employing a mix of sniper-like precision and contrarian moves, as suggested by their badges. Their sell percentage at 23% implies a willingness to hold positions, possibly engaging in dollar-cost averaging strategies. Timing appears deliberate, with a flat equity trend and zero days of max drawdown duration, highlighting effective entry and exit points without prolonged losses.

Golden-Unemployment's key strengths lie in their high win rate, disciplined trading style, and ability to maintain steady performance over time. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and flat equity trend suggest limited upside volatility, which could indicate conservative returns. Additionally, the bot score implies fast human decision-making rather than algorithmic trading, which may impact scalability and consistency under varying market conditions. Overall, Golden-Unemployment demonstrates solid expertise within Polymarket’s dynamic environment.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 74%
Profitable
PnL $+44,362
Lottery Player
47% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
69% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 8.9 entries/market
Win Streak
30 wins in a row
Whale
$203,217
Consistent
62/76 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

8
💰 FINANCE#200$20,890Vol: $1,110,436
💻 TECH#98$15,976Vol: $610,990
🏛️ POLITICS#4,924$7,057Vol: $396,633
📈 ECONOMICS#17,148$49Vol: $24,586
🎭 CULTURE#8,586$431Vol: $10,457
SPORTS#1,753,424$-459Vol: $5,556
📢 MENTIONS#2,343$450Vol: $3,371
CRYPTO#1,288,286$-28Vol: $2,385

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$44,362
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,167,759
Total Redeem
$50,590
Portfolio
$32,724
Predictions
789
total markets
Trades
2386B / 729S
Daily Volume
$334
Account Age
292d
since Sep 22, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$76
Vol: $5,052
Week
$4,554
Vol: $5,052
Month
$4,538
Vol: $267,814
All Time
$44,362
Vol: $2,167,759

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
78%
156W / 45L events
Realized PnL
$71,065
Win Rate
86%
102W / 17L
Profit Factor
1.73x
Avg Win
$287
Avg Loss
$-995

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $6,440 (52.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$3,404
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 20$1,626
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?$1,410
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$1,214
Anthropic IPO before 2027?$1,207
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?$1,195
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?$1,171
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14$1,027
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?$1,000
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26?$861

Top Losers

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at lea$-7,021
Will the next model released by DeepSeek debut at a score of at l$-2,260
Claude 4.7 released by March 15?$-2,241
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at lea$-1,762
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$-822
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?$-745
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?$-715
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?$-492
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 20$-293
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by May 31, 202$-219

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.493
Sortino
6.258
HHI
178
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.869
Kelly %
56.5%
Half-Kelly
28.2%
Top-1 market
5.2%
Top-5 markets
21%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
13.8
Active
Markets / Day
1.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
8.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.1h
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.76
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 518s — typical for humanSize CV 2.76 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.05 — human randomness14 trades/day — very active405 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
8.9
Active DCA
<=1
68 entries
<=2
105 entries
<=5
163 entries
<=10
202 entries
<=20
241 entries
<=50
262 entries
>50
7 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)47.4%
Mid (20-55c)24.1%
High (>55c)28.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 72.5%

Other$12,364

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2
Events covered
135

Moderate coverage

<=1
71 brackets
<=2
103 brackets
<=3
118 brackets
<=4
127 brackets
<=5
131 brackets
<=8
134 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/29/2025, 10:24:31 AM1 trades$90 min
12/1/2025, 8:40:00 PM1 trades$10 min
12/12/2025, 9:25:11 PM1 trades$530 min
12/20/2025, 5:20:33 PM1 trades$80 min
12/29/2025, 7:28:07 AM1 trades$10 min
1/3/2026, 3:34:15 PM1 trades$40 min
1/3/2026, 10:51:35 PM1 trades$4060 min
1/3/2026, 11:14:57 PM1 trades$330 min
1/3/2026, 11:28:47 PM1 trades$200 min
1/3/2026, 11:46:21 PM1 trades$100 min
1/4/2026, 12:28:03 AM1 trades$50 min
1/4/2026, 2:40:15 AM1 trades$670 min
1/4/2026, 12:07:33 PM1 trades$00 min
1/4/2026, 12:25:31 PM1 trades$2780 min
1/4/2026, 12:53:19 PM1 trades$140 min
1/4/2026, 3:53:45 PM1 trades$260 min
1/4/2026, 4:33:07 PM1 trades$2560 min
1/5/2026, 8:13:23 PM1 trades$30 min
1/6/2026, 2:40:19 AM1 trades$840 min
1/6/2026, 7:51:19 AM1 trades$590 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-31
05-16
06-05
06-29
07-12
07-15
01-03

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
23.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 8.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2 br/event