Polydata

@Grave-Blazer

#2,408,24610

0x768c1df4d38f4ca4fdb26bec755a6b8be40f1b22

66d· 91 markets · 166 tradesVol: $5,7872026-07-02T18:47
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 21%0/20
Profit Factor 0.75x0/15
HHI 23010/10
Profit Days 24%0/10

Summary

Grave-Blazer is a relatively inactive trader on Polymarket with a modest footprint, ranking #2,408,246 globally on the PnL leaderboard. Despite trading 166 times across 90 different markets over 285 days, their net PnL stands at negative $82.24, reflecting losses rather than gains. Their total trading volume amounts to $5,787, indicating cautious capital deployment. The trader’s portfolio value is currently zero, and their Sharpe ratio is negative at -0.14, signaling overall unfavorable risk-adjusted returns.

In terms of strategy, Grave-Blazer appears to favor a contrarian style, as suggested by their badge, with a low win rate of 38.8% but a profit factor of 2.30, which implies that winning trades produce larger returns than losses. The trader avoids weather markets entirely and executes manual trades with a sell percentage of 25%, indicating some level of risk management. Their activity does not suggest significant timing precision, and a downward equity trend points to difficulties in maintaining profitable positions consistently.

Grave-Blazer’s strengths lie in their ability to extract outsized profits from fewer winning trades, which is a positive sign for potential upside. However, the negative net PnL, low smart score, and downward equity trajectory highlight considerable risks and inexperience. Their contrarian approach can be rewarding but also exposes them to prolonged drawdowns, especially given their current lack of profitable consistency on Polymarket.

Badges

3
Lottery Player
66% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
96% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
5 wins in a row

Categories

2
SPORTS#1,580,188$-78Vol: $5,120
CRYPTO#984,401$-4Vol: $667

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-82
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$5,787
Total Redeem
$45
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
91
total markets
Trades
125B / 41S
Daily Volume
$2
Account Age
66d
since Apr 30, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-3
Vol: $0
Week
$-21
Vol: $778
Month
$-16
Vol: $392
All Time
$-82
Vol: $5,787

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
23%
19W / 62L events
Realized PnL
$141
Win Rate
39%
19W / 30L
Profit Factor
2.3x
Avg Win
$13
Avg Loss
$-4

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $98 (68.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?$52
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?$25
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5$20
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5$20
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5$19
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5$17
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 2.5$16
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5$15
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia$14
Japan vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5$13

Top Losers

Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?$-19
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?$-13
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?$-13
Lakers vs. Thunder$-8
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5$-6
Exact Score: Everton FC 0 - 0 Manchester City FC?$-5
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC?$-5
RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5$-4
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5$-3
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01?$-3

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.142
Sortino
-0.281
HHI
230
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.368
Kelly %
17.9%
Half-Kelly
8.9%
Top-1 market
5.6%
Top-5 markets
23.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.7
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.4
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
10.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.1h
between trades
Night Trading
2%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.02
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.5

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 647s — typical for humanSize CV 1.02 — diverse, typical for human2% at night — normal sleep pattern21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.53 — semi-mechanical

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.4
Single entry
<=1
68 entries
<=2
83 entries
<=5
89 entries
<=10
90 entries
<=20
90 entries
<=50
90 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)65.6%
Mid (20-55c)30.4%
High (>55c)4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 39.3%

Other$155
Paris$5
Singapore$0
Hong Kong$0
Milan$-0
Madrid$-17

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
81

Single bracket

<=1
72 brackets
<=2
81 brackets
<=3
81 brackets
<=4
81 brackets
<=5
81 brackets
<=8
81 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/30/2026, 2:49:56 PM1 trades$40 min
5/1/2026, 3:00:02 PM2 trades$72 min
5/2/2026, 7:26:04 AM1 trades$130 min
5/2/2026, 7:32:34 AM1 trades$30 min
5/2/2026, 7:38:22 AM1 trades$30 min
5/3/2026, 6:07:02 AM1 trades$20 min
5/3/2026, 6:20:32 AM2 trades$144 min
5/4/2026, 7:13:28 AM2 trades$113 min
5/4/2026, 2:08:38 PM2 trades$31 min
5/4/2026, 2:18:48 PM2 trades$31 min
5/4/2026, 3:36:30 PM3 trades$77 min
5/4/2026, 3:59:48 PM2 trades$74 min
5/5/2026, 10:05:50 AM1 trades$30 min
5/5/2026, 12:47:58 PM1 trades$160 min
5/5/2026, 8:48:04 PM1 trades$30 min
5/5/2026, 9:04:42 PM1 trades$30 min
5/5/2026, 9:10:00 PM3 trades$87 min
5/6/2026, 8:41:56 AM1 trades$20 min
5/6/2026, 12:20:58 PM2 trades$102 min
5/6/2026, 9:41:07 PM2 trades$103 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-21
05-06
05-14
05-31
06-13
06-20
07-02

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
24.7% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event