Polydata
Gregarious-Moccasins

@Gregarious-Moccasins

#41,90882

0x072473e0259a38bb1179e5c5d8c4290171ec9091

226d· 338 markets · 877 tradesVol: $782,8032026-07-21T15:30
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

82
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 49%10/20
Profit Factor 4.11x15/15
Sharpe 0.55010/15
Sortino 2.71410/10
EV $+28.89410/10
HHI 5210/10
Profit Days 59%7/10
DD/Peak 4%10/10

Summary

Gregarious-Moccasins is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having completed 877 trades across 335 different markets over 206 days. Ranked #41908 on the global PnL leaderboard, they have achieved a net profit of $2,597.73 with a total trading volume of $782,803. Their portfolio value currently stands at $1,414.74, and their smart score of 82/100 reflects very good trading performance. Despite a win rate just below 50%, Gregarious-Moccasins maintains a strong profit factor of 4.37, indicating effective risk-reward management.

This trader’s strategy appears diversified, as evidenced by participation in a wide range of markets, though only 1% of trades are in weather-related events. Gregarious-Moccasins exhibits a contrarian style, supported by the “Contrarian” badge, and tends to hold positions with low sell frequency at 10%. The Sharpe ratio of 0.55 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns, while the absence of drawdown duration indicates disciplined risk control. Their trading pattern shows an upward equity trend, implying consistent gains over time.

Key strengths for Gregarious-Moccasins include a high profit factor and steady upward portfolio growth, which demonstrate sound trade selection and risk management. However, the win rate near 50% and relatively low Sharpe ratio highlight potential vulnerability to volatility. The “Likely Human” bot score suggests discretionary trading rather than algorithmic, which could be both a strength in adaptability and a risk if emotional biases arise. Overall, Gregarious-Moccasins presents a balanced profile with room for refinement.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+2,598
Contrarian
90% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
11 wins in a row
Whale
$259,052
High Roller
$1,258/day
Cool Head
DD 4%

Categories

4
SPORTS#51,476$596Vol: $767,696
CRYPTO#1,067,153$-6Vol: $1,768
🏛️ POLITICS#1,266,342$-10Vol: $909
🌤️ WEATHER#16,131$20Vol: $840

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,598
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$782,803
Total Redeem
$246,529
Portfolio
$1,415
Predictions
338
total markets
Trades
788B / 89S
Daily Volume
$1,258
Account Age
226d
since Dec 7, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-19
Vol: $3,876
Week
$2,721
Vol: $12,015
Month
$10,189
Vol: $99,956
All Time
$2,598
Vol: $782,803

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
49%
122W / 126L events
Realized PnL
$122,152
Win Rate
50%
122W / 124L
Profit Factor
4.37x
Avg Win
$1,296
Avg Loss
$-292

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $14,653 (12% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10?$5,448
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26?$4,628
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-27?$4,577
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23?$4,547
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17?$4,355
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-11?$4,036
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?$4,010
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?$3,640
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-05?$3,439
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi$3,395

Top Losers

France vs. Sweden: France O/U 1.5$-749
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-22?$-737
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-03-02?$-734
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-30?$-732
Miami Open: Martin Landaluce vs Jiri Lehecka$-721
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03?$-715
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17?$-710
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31?$-704
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07?$-701
Thunder vs. Timberwolves$-654

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.550
Sortino
2.715
HHI
52
Diversified
EV per $1
$28.894
Kelly %
21.9%
Half-Kelly
10.9%
Top-1 market
1.4%
Top-5 markets
5.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
6:00 UTC
Median Gap
21.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
4.8h
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.48
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1292s — typical for humanSize CV 1.48 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.97 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 6:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.4
Moderate DCA
<=1
116 entries
<=2
224 entries
<=5
331 entries
<=10
334 entries
<=20
334 entries
<=50
334 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1%
Mid (20-55c)93.7%
High (>55c)5.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 2.6%

Other$94,996
Paris$11,420
Madrid$5,302
Miami$3,778
Milan$3,758
Beijing$2,684
London$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
325

Single bracket

<=1
317 brackets
<=2
323 brackets
<=3
325 brackets
<=4
325 brackets
<=5
325 brackets
<=8
325 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/27/2025, 11:01:17 AM1 trades$80 min
12/28/2025, 12:21:29 PM1 trades$200 min
12/28/2025, 10:10:13 PM1 trades$630 min
12/30/2025, 6:15:37 AM1 trades$1100 min
12/30/2025, 10:28:53 PM1 trades$3940 min
12/30/2025, 10:47:49 PM2 trades$2022 min
12/31/2025, 8:57:37 AM2 trades$313 min
1/1/2026, 6:14:53 AM1 trades$1350 min
1/1/2026, 3:15:49 PM1 trades$110 min
1/1/2026, 7:54:53 PM1 trades$3940 min
1/1/2026, 8:09:47 PM1 trades$1290 min
1/1/2026, 8:26:47 PM1 trades$80 min
1/2/2026, 2:05:35 AM1 trades$1610 min
1/2/2026, 9:41:33 PM1 trades$00 min
1/2/2026, 9:47:57 PM1 trades$20 min
1/3/2026, 3:32:05 AM1 trades$40 min
1/3/2026, 3:51:43 AM1 trades$1470 min
1/3/2026, 4:07:03 PM1 trades$90 min
1/3/2026, 4:18:05 PM2 trades$55 min
1/3/2026, 6:31:17 PM1 trades$1530 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-27
01-20
02-14
03-18
04-27
06-13
07-19
07-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
1.2% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
10.1% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event