Polydata

@Grizzled-Refusal-Hyena

#2,879,27410

0x3e4cb35cb7bedc93b15838d056a68b4299135695

6d· 576 markets · 2940 tradesVol: $265,2902026-06-30T09:42
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

10
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 18%0/20
Profit Factor 0.10x0/15
HHI 2210/10
Profit Days 0%0/10

Summary

Grizzled-Refusal-Hyena is a highly active trader on Polymarket, with 2,940 trades across 517 markets over 27 days. Despite a substantial total volume of $265,290, their net PnL stands at negative $2,190.91, placing them at rank #2,879,274 on the global profit and loss leaderboard. The trader holds a portfolio valued at $863.21 and has a low Smart Score of 10, indicating a beginner level of trading sophistication.

This trader employs an automated trading bot, as suggested by their 80/100 Bot Score, and favors frequent trading with a low sell percentage of 6%. Grizzled-Refusal-Hyena’s win rate is exceptionally high at 97.8%, paired with a very strong profit factor of 91.73, but these figures are contradicted by a negative Sharpe ratio (-1.08) and declining equity trend, indicating inefficiency in converting wins into profits. The trader appears to use dollar-cost averaging strategies and holds positions for extended periods, as reflected in their Diamond Hands and DCA Master badges.

Key strengths of Grizzled-Refusal-Hyena include disciplined automated execution and consistency in trade outcomes. However, the significant net loss and negative Sharpe ratio highlight risks in their risk management or market selection approach. The downward portfolio trend and beginner Smart Score suggest the need for strategy refinement to improve profitability and reduce drawdowns on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Diamond Hands
6% sell
DCA Master
avg 5.4 entries/market
Bot
Score 80/100
Win Streak
83 wins in a row
Whale
$106,013
High Roller
$3,926/day

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,506,291$-292Vol: $251,757
SPORTS#1,748,034$-1,899Vol: $13,534

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-2,191
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$265,290
Total Redeem
$84,108
Portfolio
$863
Predictions
576
total markets
Trades
2770B / 170S
Daily Volume
$3,926
Account Age
6d
since Jun 23, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-613
Vol: $40,576
Week
$-1,645
Vol: $141,016
Month
$-2,191
Vol: $265,290
All Time
$-2,191
Vol: $265,290

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
18%
62W / 288L events
Realized PnL
$6,049
Win Rate
98%
222W / 5L
Profit Factor
91.73x
Avg Win
$201
Avg Loss
$-97

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,468 (3.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5$553
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$514
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$401
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$398
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$390
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$388
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?$387
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET$372
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$344
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$327

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$-165
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$-143
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$-100
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$-58
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$-19

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-1.075
Sortino
-1.075
HHI
22
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.881
Kelly %
97.2%
Half-Kelly
48.6%
Top-1 market
0.6%
Top-5 markets
2.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
456.5
Very active
Markets / Day
80.3
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
3:00 UTC
Median Gap
22s
between trades
Avg Gap
3.4m
between trades
Night Trading
44%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.56
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
10 min
Avg Trades / Session
15.0

Bot Detection

#6
80
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 22s — typical for humanSize CV 1.56 — diverse, typical for human44% at night — bot never sleeps23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.30 — human randomness457 trades/day — automation80 markets/day — mass coverage545 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 3:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
5.4
Active DCA
<=1
144 entries
<=2
203 entries
<=5
334 entries
<=10
437 entries
<=20
508 entries
<=50
517 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.9%
Mid (20-55c)94.5%
High (>55c)4.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 50.7%

Other$44,040

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
512

Single bracket

<=1
507 brackets
<=2
512 brackets
<=3
512 brackets
<=4
512 brackets
<=5
512 brackets
<=8
512 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
6/23/2026, 11:01:29 PM2 trades$3080 min
6/24/2026, 5:27:55 PM3 trades$1530 min
6/24/2026, 5:34:28 PM3 trades$2552 min
6/24/2026, 5:44:50 PM12 trades$4228 min
6/24/2026, 6:00:28 PM11 trades$1932 min
6/24/2026, 6:24:53 PM1 trades$1480 min
6/24/2026, 6:29:55 PM1 trades$1560 min
6/24/2026, 6:35:01 PM3 trades$3302 min
6/24/2026, 6:43:31 PM2 trades$200 min
6/24/2026, 6:51:23 PM17 trades$47719 min
6/24/2026, 7:24:43 PM23 trades$30313 min
6/24/2026, 8:20:01 PM1 trades$1480 min
6/24/2026, 8:29:20 PM6 trades$2755 min
6/24/2026, 8:39:22 PM2 trades$1590 min
6/24/2026, 8:52:23 PM6 trades$1413 min
6/24/2026, 9:17:41 PM3 trades$6875 min
6/24/2026, 9:29:59 PM13 trades$1470 min
6/24/2026, 9:43:07 PM17 trades$56113 min
6/24/2026, 10:05:14 PM19 trades$1390 min
6/24/2026, 10:29:59 PM3 trades$1500 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-23
06-24
06-25
06-26
06-27
06-28
06-29
06-30
07-20

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
5.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 5.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event