Polydata
Grounded-Courage

@Grounded-Courage

#2,622,13163

0xff5a2ac7c19b2927254e69022de7516a84c1ab91

138d· 280 markets · 1135 tradesVol: $55,693 @aupwi2026-07-02T17:19
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

63
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 33%1/20
Profit Factor 2.37x15/15
Sharpe 0.3076/15
Sortino 0.4865/10
EV $+2.57310/10
HHI 15610/10
Profit Days 54%6/10
DD/Peak 13%10/10

Summary

Grounded-Courage is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 1,135 trades across 276 markets over 317 days. Despite a total trading volume of $55,693, their net PnL stands at -$206.83, placing them at rank #2,622,131 on the global leaderboard. Their Smart Score of 63/100 indicates a generally good grasp of trading dynamics, and their portfolio value remains low at $36.34. The Sharpe ratio of 0.31 suggests limited risk-adjusted returns, while their profit factor of 3.77 shows some efficiency in winning trades relative to losses.

The trading style of Grounded-Courage involves a contrarian approach, as indicated by their top badges, and they appear to favor lottery-style high-risk bets with a relatively low win rate of 28.2%. Their activity in weather markets is minimal (3%), and they tend to hold positions with a sell percentage of 37%. The flat equity trend and zero-day max drawdown duration imply stable but unspectacular performance, with a cautious but persistent trading rhythm. Overall, Grounded-Courage seems to engage in frequent trades but with a preference for high-variance outcomes.

Strengths of Grounded-Courage include a strong profit factor and a cool-headed approach during trading, which may help them manage losses effectively. However, their negative net PnL and low portfolio value highlight the risk of sustained underperformance. The low Bot Score suggests manual trading, possibly limiting scalability. Their contrarian and lottery-player tendencies carry inherent risks, potentially exposing them to significant downside despite occasional win streaks.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Lottery Player
42% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
65% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
Cool Head
DD 13%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,357,823$-21Vol: $17,126
₿ CRYPTO#70,621$157Vol: $9,489
⚽ SPORTS#1,598,046$-94Vol: $8,902
💰 FINANCE#619,668$-104Vol: $7,328
🎭 CULTURE#725,181$-25Vol: $1,714
🌤️ WEATHER#269,084$-61Vol: $1,106
📈 ECONOMICS#587,708$-10Vol: $860
💻 TECH#218,733$-12Vol: $720
📢 MENTIONS#140,533$-25Vol: $682

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-207
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$55,693
Total Redeem
$2,192
Portfolio
$36
Predictions
280
total markets
Trades
714B / 421S
Daily Volume
$41
Account Age
138d
since Feb 17, 2026

Periods

#2
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-207
Vol: $55,693

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
38%
59W / 96L events
Realized PnL
$775
Win Rate
28%
63W / 142L
Profit Factor
3.77x
Avg Win
$21
Avg Loss
$-2

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $323 (33.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$122
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$102
France vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 $99
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22?$77
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 L$75
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?$58
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$40
Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by March 31, 2026?$34

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-42
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?$-32
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$-30
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-23
Will Trump say "Roaring" or "Like a rock" during CNBC: Squawk Box$-18
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?$-9
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 30?$-9
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?$-7
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-6
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?$-6

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.307
Sortino
0.486
HHI
156
Diversified
EV per $1
$2.573
Kelly %
13.5%
Half-Kelly
6.8%
Top-1 market
6.6%
Top-5 markets
20.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
8.5
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.1
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
5:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.7h
between trades
Night Trading
38%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.66
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 162s — typical for humanSize CV 2.66 — diverse, typical for human38% at night — bot never sleeps19/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.93 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 5:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.6
Moderate DCA
<=1
153 entries
<=2
213 entries
<=5
249 entries
<=10
260 entries
<=20
276 entries
<=50
276 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)42.3%
Mid (20-55c)35.6%
High (>55c)22.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 40.4%

Other$913
Los Angeles$74
Hern$1
Seoul$1
Wuhan$0
Paris$0
New York City$0
Houston$-0
Dallas$-0
Madrid$-0
Denver$-0
Warsaw$-0
Shanghai$-0
Miami$-1
Murphy$-2
London$-3
Beijing$-9

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
200

Single bracket

<=1
174 brackets
<=2
186 brackets
<=3
195 brackets
<=4
199 brackets
<=5
199 brackets
<=8
199 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/18/2026, 2:16:19 AM1 trades$200 min
2/18/2026, 2:40:55 AM1 trades$10 min
2/18/2026, 2:50:16 AM1 trades$10 min
2/18/2026, 3:00:42 AM1 trades$10 min
2/19/2026, 3:16:56 PM4 trades$49 min
2/19/2026, 3:40:14 PM1 trades$10 min
2/19/2026, 3:45:34 PM9 trades$923 min
2/22/2026, 2:24:04 PM1 trades$30 min
2/23/2026, 2:00:12 PM3 trades$174 min
2/24/2026, 2:00:24 PM1 trades$50 min
2/24/2026, 2:15:22 PM1 trades$110 min
2/25/2026, 2:08:40 PM1 trades$150 min
2/25/2026, 2:15:10 PM1 trades$160 min
2/26/2026, 2:09:04 PM1 trades$50 min
2/26/2026, 2:14:06 PM1 trades$370 min
2/27/2026, 2:00:43 PM1 trades$50 min
2/27/2026, 2:12:25 PM3 trades$182 min
2/28/2026, 6:15:19 AM1 trades$170 min
2/28/2026, 6:56:11 AM1 trades$160 min
2/28/2026, 10:22:05 AM1 trades$160 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-07
03-26
04-29
05-27
06-11
07-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
3.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
37.1% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event