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Grounded-Courage

@Grounded-Courage

#2,448,86364

0xff5a2ac7c19b2927254e69022de7516a84c1ab91

135d· 253 markets · 1039 tradesVol: $53,490 @aupwi2026-06-15T02:03
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

64
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 31%1/20
Profit Factor 2.54x15/15
Sharpe 0.3426/15
Sortino 0.5736/10
EV $+4.57810/10
HHI 15910/10
Profit Days 54%6/10
DD/Peak 9%10/10

Summary

Grounded-Courage is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 1,039 trades over 317 days with a total volume of around $53,490. Despite this level of activity, their net PnL stands at a loss of $127.66, placing them at rank #2,448,863 on the global leaderboard. Their Smart Score is a respectable 64 out of 100, indicating decent trading skills and judgment, though their portfolio value is currently zero and their Sharpe ratio is low at 0.34.

This trader tends to engage in a diverse set of markets, having traded 233 different markets, with a small portion (3%) in weather-related markets. Grounded-Courage’s win rate is relatively low at 31%, but their profit factor is strong at 4.55, suggesting that their winning trades are significantly larger than their losing ones. Their trading style appears to be contrarian and risk-tolerant, as implied by their badges and a 38% sell rate, and they maintain a calm, steady approach without long drawdown periods.

Grounded-Courage’s key strength lies in their ability to generate high-value wins and maintain a stable equity trend despite a negative overall PnL. However, the low win rate combined with a flat portfolio value and frequent losses could be cause for concern. Their relatively low Bot Score suggests fast human trading rather than algorithmic strategies, which may impact consistency. Overall, Grounded-Courage demonstrates resilience and a cool-headed approach but faces challenges in achieving consistent profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Lottery Player
45% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
66% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
Cool Head
DD 9%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,345,992$-21Vol: $17,026
CRYPTO#56,416$236Vol: $9,100
SPORTS#1,521,309$-94Vol: $8,902
💰 FINANCE#606,267$-104Vol: $7,328
🎭 CULTURE#718,660$-25Vol: $1,714
🌤️ WEATHER#262,270$-61Vol: $1,106
📈 ECONOMICS#580,418$-10Vol: $860
💻 TECH#212,647$-12Vol: $720
📢 MENTIONS#138,535$-25Vol: $682

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-128
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$53,490
Total Redeem
$1,730
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
253
total markets
Trades
646B / 393S
Daily Volume
$31
Account Age
135d
since Feb 17, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-3
Vol: $860
Week
$-10
Vol: $860
Month
$-52
Vol: $15,346
All Time
$-128
Vol: $53,490

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
36%
54W / 97L events
Realized PnL
$681
Win Rate
31%
67W / 134L
Profit Factor
4.55x
Avg Win
$18
Avg Loss
$-2

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $299 (31.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$122
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$102
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 L$75
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$40
Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by March 31, 2026?$34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?$33
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$32
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$32

Top Losers

Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?$-32
Will Trump say "Roaring" or "Like a rock" during CNBC: Squawk Box$-18
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?$-9
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 30?$-9
Will Trump say "Largest inflation" or "Worst inflation" during CN$-8
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C$-8
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?$-7
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-7
Will Conagra Brands (CAG) beat quarterly earnings?$-7
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$-6

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.342
Sortino
0.573
HHI
159
Diversified
EV per $1
$4.578
Kelly %
17.3%
Half-Kelly
8.6%
Top-1 market
5.2%
Top-5 markets
21.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
8.9
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.0
Active Hours
19/24
Extended
Peak Hour
5:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.5h
between trades
Night Trading
40%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.24
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 138s — typical for humanSize CV 2.24 — diverse, typical for human40% at night — bot never sleeps19/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.94 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 5:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.8
Moderate DCA
<=1
119 entries
<=2
177 entries
<=5
207 entries
<=10
217 entries
<=20
233 entries
<=50
233 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)44.9%
Mid (20-55c)31.7%
High (>55c)23.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 42.2%

Other$894
Los Angeles$74
Hern$1
Seoul$1
Paris$0
Houston$-0
Dallas$-0
Madrid$-0
Denver$-0
Warsaw$-0
Shanghai$-0
Miami$-1
Murphy$-2
London$-3
Beijing$-9

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
179

Single bracket

<=1
156 brackets
<=2
165 brackets
<=3
175 brackets
<=4
178 brackets
<=5
178 brackets
<=8
178 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/18/2026, 2:16:19 AM1 trades$200 min
2/18/2026, 2:40:55 AM1 trades$10 min
2/18/2026, 2:50:16 AM1 trades$10 min
2/18/2026, 3:00:42 AM1 trades$10 min
2/19/2026, 3:16:56 PM4 trades$49 min
2/19/2026, 3:40:14 PM1 trades$10 min
2/19/2026, 3:45:34 PM9 trades$923 min
2/22/2026, 2:24:04 PM1 trades$30 min
2/23/2026, 2:00:12 PM3 trades$174 min
2/24/2026, 2:00:24 PM1 trades$50 min
2/24/2026, 2:15:22 PM1 trades$110 min
2/25/2026, 2:08:40 PM1 trades$150 min
2/25/2026, 2:15:10 PM1 trades$160 min
2/26/2026, 2:09:04 PM1 trades$50 min
2/26/2026, 2:14:06 PM1 trades$370 min
2/27/2026, 2:00:43 PM1 trades$50 min
2/27/2026, 2:12:25 PM3 trades$182 min
2/28/2026, 6:15:19 AM1 trades$170 min
2/28/2026, 6:56:11 AM1 trades$160 min
2/28/2026, 10:22:05 AM1 trades$160 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-06
03-22
04-16
05-22
06-05
08-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
37.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event