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Grounded-Courage

@Grounded-Courage

#2,410,35113

0xff5a2ac7c19b2927254e69022de7516a84c1ab91

93d· 182 markets · 925 tradesVol: $25,455 @aupwi2026-05-17T17:41
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

13
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 24%0/20
Profit Factor 0.72x0/15
HHI 11710/10
Profit Days 40%3/10
DD/Peak 212%0/10

Summary

Grounded-Courage is a relatively active trader on Polymarket, having executed 925 trades across 182 different markets over 317 days. Despite this high level of activity and a total trading volume of $25,455, their net profit and loss stands at a negative $192.51, placing them at rank #2,410,351 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their overall performance metrics, including a low Smart Score of 13/100 and a Sharpe Ratio of -0.13, indicate limited success in generating consistent returns.

The trading style of Grounded-Courage appears to be speculative and high-risk, with a win rate of only 23.2% and a profit factor below 1 at 0.88. They engage mostly in a contrarian approach, as suggested by their top badge, and show a slight preference for weather-related markets, which make up 4% of their trades. Their sell percentage of 36% suggests a moderate tendency to close positions rather than holding till resolution. The equity trend is downward, reflecting declining portfolio value over time and a lack of effective risk management.

Grounded-Courage’s main strength lies in their persistence and willingness to engage across a wide variety of markets on Polymarket. However, the consistent negative returns, low win rate, and poor risk-adjusted performance highlight significant concerns. The absence of a sustained drawdown period might indicate a reluctance or inability to hold positions through volatility. Overall, while they demonstrate active participation, the data points to a beginner-level trader struggling to achieve profitability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

2
Lottery Player
49% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
69% entries <$0.50

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,446,917$-117Vol: $8,238
💰 FINANCE#577,316$-80Vol: $6,018
CRYPTO#73,702$123Vol: $4,118
SPORTS#1,376,706$-35Vol: $2,891
🎭 CULTURE#693,511$-20Vol: $1,509
📈 ECONOMICS#563,736$-10Vol: $860
🌤️ WEATHER#229,898$-18Vol: $818
📢 MENTIONS#135,724$-25Vol: $682
💻 TECH#205,137$-11Vol: $320

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-193
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$25,455
Total Redeem
$610
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
182
total markets
Trades
592B / 333S
Daily Volume
$17
Account Age
93d
since Feb 17, 2026

Periods

#2
Week
$-22
Vol: $0
Month
$-5
Vol: $2,999
All Time
$-193
Vol: $25,455

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
26%
34W / 95L events
Realized PnL
$-165
Win Rate
23%
42W / 132L
Profit Factor
0.88x
Avg Win
$13
Avg Loss
$-5

Top Winners

Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by March 31, 2026?$34
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$32
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$30
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$30
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$30
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$28
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$25
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$24

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-59
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?$-32
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-25
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on April 30?$-23
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 16?$-20

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.134
Sortino
-0.167
HHI
117
Diversified
EV per $1
$-6.497
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4.1%
Top-5 markets
14%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
10.7
Active
Markets / Day
2.1
Active Hours
17/24
Extended
Peak Hour
5:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.3h
between trades
Night Trading
44%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.64
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 122s — typical for humanSize CV 1.64 — diverse, typical for human44% at night — bot never sleeps17/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 0.94 — human randomness11 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 5:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.3
Moderate DCA
<=1
80 entries
<=2
126 entries
<=5
154 entries
<=10
166 entries
<=20
182 entries
<=50
182 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)49.5%
Mid (20-55c)28.4%
High (>55c)22.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 61.2%

Hern$1
Houston$-0
Dallas$-0
Madrid$-0
Denver$-0
Warsaw$-0
Shanghai$-0
Miami$-1
Los Angeles$-1
Murphy$-2
Wuhan$-8
Beijing$-9
Other$-54

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
134

Single bracket

<=1
113 brackets
<=2
123 brackets
<=3
131 brackets
<=4
133 brackets
<=5
133 brackets
<=8
133 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/18/2026, 2:16:19 AM1 trades$200 min
2/18/2026, 2:40:55 AM1 trades$10 min
2/18/2026, 2:50:16 AM1 trades$10 min
2/18/2026, 3:00:42 AM1 trades$10 min
2/19/2026, 3:16:56 PM4 trades$49 min
2/19/2026, 3:40:14 PM1 trades$10 min
2/19/2026, 3:45:34 PM9 trades$923 min
2/22/2026, 2:24:04 PM1 trades$30 min
2/23/2026, 2:00:12 PM3 trades$174 min
2/24/2026, 2:00:24 PM1 trades$50 min
2/24/2026, 2:15:22 PM1 trades$110 min
2/25/2026, 2:08:40 PM1 trades$150 min
2/25/2026, 2:15:10 PM1 trades$160 min
2/26/2026, 2:09:04 PM1 trades$50 min
2/26/2026, 2:14:06 PM1 trades$370 min
2/27/2026, 2:00:43 PM1 trades$50 min
2/27/2026, 2:12:25 PM3 trades$182 min
2/28/2026, 6:15:19 AM1 trades$170 min
2/28/2026, 6:56:11 AM1 trades$160 min
2/28/2026, 10:22:05 AM1 trades$160 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
03-04
03-18
03-31
04-16
05-11
05-21
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
3.8% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
36% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event