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@Grubby-Stallion

#2,689,91740

0xf0ed1573125835c9eb716ab3695796d3dce06ae8

97d· 5995 markets · 2915 tradesVol: $572,7682026-06-24T23:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

40
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 0.28x0/15
HHI 1510/10
Profit Days 98%10/10
DD/Peak 127%0/10

Summary

Grubby-Stallion is an active trader on Polymarket with 2,915 trades across 1,021 markets over 58 days. Despite a high win rate of 81.2%, the trader currently holds a net loss of $443.62, placing them at rank #2,689,917 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their total trading volume is substantial at $572,768, but the portfolio value has declined to zero, reflecting a downward equity trend.

This trader focuses exclusively on weather markets, indicating a very specialized trading preference. Grubby-Stallion shows a semi-automated trading style with a Bot Score of 65/100, combining bot and manual inputs. Their zero sell percentage and badges like "Diamond Hands" suggest a hold strategy rather than frequent profit-taking. The Sharpe ratio of -0.03 and a profit factor of 0.28 indicate a risk profile that currently results in losses despite the high winning percentage.

Grubby-Stallion’s strength lies in their high volume and consistent engagement with weather markets, potentially leveraging niche expertise. However, the negative PnL, declining equity, and below-average Smart Score highlight risks in their strategy execution or market timing. Their all-in buy-and-hold style without selling may contribute to sustained drawdowns, posing challenges for profitable trading on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Weather Pro
100% weather
Win Streak
816 wins in a row
Whale
$73,302
Consistent
52/53 days
High Roller
$1,264/day

Categories

2
🌤️ WEATHER#280,846$-445Vol: $571,668
💰 FINANCE#111,664$2Vol: $1,100

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-444
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$572,768
Total Redeem
$56,112
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
5995
total markets
Trades
2911B / 4S
Daily Volume
$1,264
Account Age
97d
since Apr 5, 2026

Periods

#2
Month
$-390
Vol: $12,199
All Time
$-444
Vol: $572,768

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
232W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$324
Win Rate
81%
823W / 191L
Profit Factor
0.28x
Avg Win
$8
Avg Loss
$-120

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on May 26?$254
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 24?$226
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C or below on Jun$179
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on May $178
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 30?$172
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 24?$170
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or below on May 24?$132
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 26?$121
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 1?$121
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on May $114

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 95°F or below on$-400
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 24?$-375
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on April 19?$-345
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on April 26?$-300
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 9?$-300
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 26?$-300
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 86°F or higher on $-300
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on Apr$-266
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on Apr$-247
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 2?$-240

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.028
Sortino
-1599.298
HHI
15
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.225
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.5%
Top-5 markets
2.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
50.7
Very active
Markets / Day
17.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
5:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
24.9m
between trades
Night Trading
26%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.01
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 179s — typical for humanSize CV 1.01 — diverse, typical for human26% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.95 — human randomness51 trades/day — mass trading18 markets/day — mass coverage

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 5:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.9
Moderate DCA
<=1
418 entries
<=2
619 entries
<=5
877 entries
<=10
1003 entries
<=20
1021 entries
<=50
1021 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)100%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 18.9%

London$682
Madrid$656
Paris$266
San Francisco$208
Cape Town$192
Kuala Lumpur$49
Jeddah$38
Karachi$28
Miami$5
Other$1
Munich$1
Tel Aviv$1
Houston$-15
Lucknow$-70
Sao Paulo$-73
Shenzhen$-74
Denver$-80
Istanbul$-140

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2
Events covered
506

Moderate coverage

<=1
277 brackets
<=2
364 brackets
<=3
420 brackets
<=4
470 brackets
<=5
489 brackets
<=8
506 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/5/2026, 9:09:39 PM4 trades$1282 min
4/5/2026, 9:29:35 PM1 trades$70 min
4/5/2026, 9:54:53 PM8 trades$1659 min
4/5/2026, 10:43:29 PM2 trades$1500 min
4/5/2026, 10:58:37 PM3 trades$710 min
4/5/2026, 11:12:11 PM2 trades$265 min
4/6/2026, 11:10:01 AM3 trades$990 min
4/6/2026, 11:16:19 AM1 trades$60 min
4/6/2026, 11:22:49 AM1 trades$450 min
4/6/2026, 12:02:07 PM2 trades$900 min
4/6/2026, 1:24:37 PM9 trades$1503 min
4/6/2026, 3:45:55 PM3 trades$895 min
4/6/2026, 4:35:39 PM1 trades$300 min
4/7/2026, 11:23:29 PM2 trades$750 min
4/9/2026, 12:26:01 PM1 trades$270 min
4/9/2026, 12:54:21 PM1 trades$750 min
4/9/2026, 2:17:49 PM1 trades$480 min
4/9/2026, 4:42:49 PM1 trades$750 min
4/9/2026, 9:11:11 PM1 trades$10 min
4/9/2026, 9:16:23 PM1 trades$100 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-05
04-16
04-24
05-02
05-10
05-21
05-29

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
99.9% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0.1% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2 br/event