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@Grumpy-Pendant

#2,13364

0x551c8f09fffa54889974a101e2af2b92c13dfe91

135d· 3864 markets · 4064 tradesVol: $1,148,0352026-05-14T15:07
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

64
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 19%0/20
Profit Factor 2.32x15/15
Sharpe 0.3226/15
Sortino 1.05410/10
EV $+1.37610/10
HHI 5910/10
Profit Days 40%3/10
DD/Peak 6%10/10

Summary

Grumpy-Pendant is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #2133 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 137 days, they executed 4,064 trades across 1,602 markets, generating a net profit of $69,806.49 with a total traded volume exceeding $1.1 million. Their Smart Score of 64 indicates good trading performance, supported by a strong win rate of 85% and a profit factor above 6, although their Sharpe Ratio is relatively low at 0.32, reflecting moderate risk-adjusted returns.

The trading style of Grumpy-Pendant appears diversified, engaging in a broad range of markets while maintaining a contrarian approach, as evidenced by the 📉 Contrarian badge. Their risk profile is balanced but leans toward calculated risk-taking, given a low max drawdown duration of zero days and a 22% sell rate, suggesting selective profit-taking rather than frequent exits. Timing-wise, their equity trend is stable, indicating consistent performance without aggressive swings, and their semi-bot trading style implies a combination of automated and manual decision-making.

Grumpy-Pendant’s strengths lie in their high win rate, substantial profit factor, and ability to sustain a stable equity curve, making them a noteworthy trader on Polymarket. Potential risks include a relatively low Sharpe Ratio, which may signal vulnerability to volatility, and a bot score of 55, indicating some reliance on automation that could affect adaptability in rapidly changing markets. Overall, Grumpy-Pendant demonstrates solid trading skills but may face challenges in maximizing risk-adjusted gains.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+69,806
Contrarian
61% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
30 wins in a row
Whale
$219,426
High Roller
$1,602/day
Cool Head
DD 6%

Categories

2
SPORTS#842$69,833Vol: $1,142,099
CRYPTO#1,182,903$-26Vol: $5,936

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$69,806
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,148,035
Total Redeem
$160,840
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
3864
total markets
Trades
3167B / 897S
Daily Volume
$1,602
Account Age
135d
since Jan 6, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$1,914
Vol: $39,982
Week
$8,382
Vol: $143,567
Month
$12,954
Vol: $446,196
All Time
$69,806
Vol: $1,148,035

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
21%
223W / 839L events
Realized PnL
$118,049
Win Rate
85%
459W / 81L
Profit Factor
6.07x
Avg Win
$154
Avg Loss
$-143

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $11,882 (20.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?$4,820
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-26?$3,599
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5$3,462
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-01?$2,611
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5$2,606
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11?$1,573
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?$1,529
Will Millwall FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw?$1,458
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians$1,457
Flyers vs. Hurricanes$1,390

Top Losers

Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)$-2,535
Will Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw?$-1,198
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros$-727
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles$-705
Cavaliers vs. Raptors$-584
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10?$-502
Wild vs. Avalanche$-495
Will Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw?$-393
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?$-390
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17?$-370

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.322
Sortino
1.054
HHI
59
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.376
Kelly %
77.1%
Half-Kelly
38.6%
Top-1 market
2.2%
Top-5 markets
9.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
32.7
Active
Markets / Day
12.9
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
37.4m
between trades
Night Trading
40%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.03
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.9

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 88s — typical for humanSize CV 3.03 — diverse, typical for human40% at night — bot never sleeps21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.22 — human randomness33 trades/day — suspiciously high13 markets/day — mass coverage1328 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2
Single entry
<=1
853 entries
<=2
1239 entries
<=5
1540 entries
<=10
1595 entries
<=20
1602 entries
<=50
1602 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)16.2%
Mid (20-55c)53.7%
High (>55c)30.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 55.4%

Other$39,585
Madrid$9,649
Los Angeles$3,145
Chicago$2,256
Seattle$931
New York City$623
Miami$620
San Francisco$407
Dallas$329
Atlanta$294
Paris$293
Milan$265
Houston$240
Toronto$168
Austin$67

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
1165

Single bracket

<=1
841 brackets
<=2
1082 brackets
<=3
1143 brackets
<=4
1160 brackets
<=5
1164 brackets
<=8
1165 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/10/2026, 2:00:04 AM4 trades$113 min
1/10/2026, 2:36:34 AM1 trades$80 min
1/13/2026, 2:44:01 AM1 trades$20 min
1/13/2026, 4:05:47 AM2 trades$100 min
1/14/2026, 1:22:42 AM1 trades$10 min
1/14/2026, 1:57:46 AM1 trades$10 min
1/14/2026, 3:01:08 AM1 trades$70 min
1/14/2026, 4:40:54 AM1 trades$110 min
1/17/2026, 2:43:44 AM2 trades$130 min
1/17/2026, 6:19:22 PM1 trades$40 min
1/17/2026, 9:24:24 PM1 trades$30 min
1/18/2026, 2:46:54 AM2 trades$150 min
1/18/2026, 8:06:58 PM2 trades$40 min
1/18/2026, 9:16:36 PM1 trades$60 min
1/18/2026, 9:28:00 PM1 trades$70 min
1/19/2026, 1:59:14 AM1 trades$20 min
1/19/2026, 2:45:20 AM1 trades$440 min
1/19/2026, 2:53:00 AM1 trades$60 min
1/19/2026, 2:58:54 AM1 trades$630 min
1/19/2026, 3:12:30 AM1 trades$900 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-04
02-06
03-01
03-21
04-10
04-30
05-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
22.1% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event