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@Grumpy-Pendant

#89156

0x551c8f09fffa54889974a101e2af2b92c13dfe91

172d· 5979 markets · 6061 tradesVol: $2,720,2422026-06-23T13:24
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

56
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 14%0/20
Profit Factor 1.90x14/15
Sharpe 0.2415/15
Sortino 0.5295/10
EV $+0.93810/10
HHI 12510/10
Profit Days 38%2/10
DD/Peak 17%10/10

Summary

Grumpy-Pendant is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #891 globally by net profit. Over 176 days, they have executed 6,061 trades across 2,047 markets, generating a net PnL of $206,344 on a total volume exceeding $2.7 million. Their portfolio value remains stable at around $540, reflecting a consistent but low-risk capital base. With a Smart Score of 56 and a semi-automated trading style indicated by a Bot Score of 65, Grumpy-Pendant combines manual insight with algorithmic support.

The trader favors a high-volume, low-margin approach, evident from their large number of trades and markets. With an 81.6% win rate and a profit factor of 4.23, Grumpy-Pendant demonstrates a conservative risk profile, aiming for steady gains rather than speculative bets. Their sell percentage of 20% suggests a preference for holding positions rather than frequent flipping. The absence of weather markets in their portfolio indicates a focus on other event types, while their timing appears disciplined, supported by a zero-day max drawdown duration and a flat equity trend.

Grumpy-Pendant’s key strengths lie in their consistent profitability and high win rate, alongside a contrarian edge that may help exploit market inefficiencies. However, their low Sharpe ratio of 0.24 points to modest risk-adjusted returns, and the flat equity trend highlights limited portfolio growth. The reliance on a semi-bot system introduces automation benefits but also potential algorithmic risks. Overall, Grumpy-Pendant’s Polymarket activity reflects steady, risk-managed trading with room to enhance capital deployment.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+206,344
Contrarian
64% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
27 wins in a row
Whale
$456,928
High Roller
$2,596/day
Cool Head
DD 17%

Categories

2
SPORTS#386$206,370Vol: $2,714,266
CRYPTO#1,249,436$-26Vol: $5,936

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$206,344
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,720,242
Total Redeem
$351,222
Portfolio
$540
Predictions
5979
total markets
Trades
4855B / 1206S
Daily Volume
$2,596
Account Age
172d
since Jan 6, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$15,869
Vol: $99,826
Week
$17,466
Vol: $278,545
Month
$82,500
Vol: $1,075,511
All Time
$206,344
Vol: $2,720,242

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
15%
230W / 1263L events
Realized PnL
$203,902
Win Rate
82%
292W / 66L
Profit Factor
4.23x
Avg Win
$505
Avg Loss
$-528

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $43,345 (38.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?$27,922
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?$7,770
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5$7,653
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?$7,575
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?$7,198
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?$5,514
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?$4,975
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?$4,820
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?$4,332
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)$3,819

Top Losers

Spread: Spain (-4.5)$-8,043
Knicks vs. Spurs$-3,545
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5$-2,389
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?$-2,086
Spread: Austria (-1.5)$-1,798
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5$-1,606
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5$-1,589
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5$-1,491
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians$-1,430
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5$-1,290

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.241
Sortino
0.529
HHI
125
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.938
Kelly %
68.9%
Half-Kelly
34.4%
Top-1 market
6.8%
Top-5 markets
18.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
36.9
Active
Markets / Day
12.5
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
58s
between trades
Avg Gap
39.9m
between trades
Night Trading
40%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.97
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.9

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 58s — typical for humanSize CV 3.97 — diverse, typical for human40% at night — bot never sleeps22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.27 — human randomness37 trades/day — suspiciously high12 markets/day — mass coverage1949 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.4
Moderate DCA
<=1
1082 entries
<=2
1569 entries
<=5
1926 entries
<=10
2007 entries
<=20
2032 entries
<=50
2044 entries
>50
3 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)17.1%
Mid (20-55c)54.2%
High (>55c)28.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 57.4%

Other$105,400
Madrid$4,820
Toronto$1,506
Chicago$389
Miami$234
Atlanta$131
Houston$118
San Francisco$22
Paris$0
Milan$0
New York City$0
Seattle$0
Dallas$0
Austin$0
Los Angeles$-45

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.4
Events covered
1425

Single bracket

<=1
1038 brackets
<=2
1301 brackets
<=3
1370 brackets
<=4
1395 brackets
<=5
1408 brackets
<=8
1425 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/10/2026, 2:00:04 AM4 trades$113 min
1/10/2026, 2:36:34 AM1 trades$80 min
1/13/2026, 2:44:01 AM1 trades$20 min
1/13/2026, 4:05:47 AM2 trades$100 min
1/14/2026, 1:22:42 AM1 trades$10 min
1/14/2026, 1:57:46 AM1 trades$10 min
1/14/2026, 3:01:08 AM1 trades$70 min
1/14/2026, 4:40:54 AM1 trades$110 min
1/17/2026, 2:43:44 AM2 trades$130 min
1/17/2026, 6:19:22 PM1 trades$40 min
1/17/2026, 9:24:24 PM1 trades$30 min
1/18/2026, 2:46:54 AM2 trades$150 min
1/18/2026, 8:06:58 PM2 trades$40 min
1/18/2026, 9:16:36 PM1 trades$60 min
1/18/2026, 9:28:00 PM1 trades$70 min
1/19/2026, 1:59:14 AM1 trades$20 min
1/19/2026, 2:45:20 AM1 trades$440 min
1/19/2026, 2:53:00 AM1 trades$60 min
1/19/2026, 2:58:54 AM1 trades$630 min
1/19/2026, 3:12:30 AM1 trades$900 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-04
02-12
03-13
04-08
05-04
05-30
06-25
06-27

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
19.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.4 br/event