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@Hard-To-Find-Arrest

#2,744,69096

0xd4a4946003fa9345df1ad83e63c587dc81aa9cc0

268d· 1077 markets · 1174 tradesVol: $74,124 @NVamsick2026-06-24T11:29
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 8.50x15/15
Sharpe 0.56911/15
Sortino 3.52510/10
EV $+0.38410/10
HHI 9310/10
Profit Days 91%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Hard-To-Find-Arrest is a moderately active manual trader on Polymarket, with 1,174 trades across 682 markets over 225 days. Despite a high volume of $74,124, their net PnL stands at negative $744.89, placing them at rank #2,744,690 globally. Their Smart Score is an impressive 96/100, reflecting elite trading skill, though their portfolio value is currently zero, indicating no open positions.

This trader favors a low-risk profile, as evidenced by a 93.4% win rate and a profit factor of 8.50, suggesting efficient trade selection. Their activity shows a patient, consistent approach with a low sell percentage (17%) and no exposure to weather markets. Hard-To-Find-Arrest’s Sharpe ratio of 0.57 and zero max drawdown duration imply stable equity with limited volatility. The use of manual trading, supported by a low Bot Score (15/100), aligns with a disciplined, human-driven strategy characterized by precision and cool-headedness.

Hard-To-Find-Arrest’s strengths lie in consistency and risk management, demonstrated by a stable equity trend and multiple badges highlighting accuracy and composure. However, the negative net PnL raises concerns about profitability despite high win rates. This disparity suggests that while trades frequently succeed, gains may be small or offset by occasional losses, a dynamic traders should consider when evaluating their overall performance on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Win Streak
160 wins in a row
Consistent
43/47 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

6
CRYPTO#1,528,432$-578Vol: $60,838
🎭 CULTURE#760,975$-85Vol: $6,394
💰 FINANCE#606,690$-84Vol: $3,035
SPORTS#1,412,419$-24Vol: $1,409
🌤️ WEATHER#181,301$-1Vol: $71
🏛️ POLITICS#1,120,378$-5Vol: $8

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-745
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$74,124
Total Redeem
$8,391
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1077
total markets
Trades
974B / 200S
Daily Volume
$44
Account Age
268d
since Oct 10, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $38
Month
$-8
Vol: $163
All Time
$-745
Vol: $74,124

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
248W / 5L events
Realized PnL
$2,512
Win Rate
93%
413W / 29L
Profit Factor
8.5x
Avg Win
$8
Avg Loss
$-13

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $230 (7.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2$116
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$60
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$53
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$51
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$44
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$39

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$-63
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 2$-62
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$-40
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-29
XRP Up or Down - November 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$-24
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 2$-19
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$-18
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$-13
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$-11
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$-10

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.569
Sortino
3.525
HHI
93
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.384
Kelly %
90.4%
Half-Kelly
45.2%
Top-1 market
3.8%
Top-5 markets
15.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
3.0
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
41.2m
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.00
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 112s — typical for humanSize CV 2.00 — diverse, typical for human13% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.92 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.6
Single entry
<=1
372 entries
<=2
538 entries
<=5
606 entries
<=10
610 entries
<=20
611 entries
<=50
611 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.6%
Mid (20-55c)11.4%
High (>55c)85%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 54%

Other$2,911
Beijing$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
673

Single bracket

<=1
669 brackets
<=2
671 brackets
<=3
672 brackets
<=4
672 brackets
<=5
672 brackets
<=8
673 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/8/2025, 9:24:31 AM1 trades$50 min
11/23/2025, 4:55:35 AM3 trades$181 min
11/23/2025, 8:01:57 AM2 trades$192 min
11/24/2025, 4:25:51 PM3 trades$1553 min
11/24/2025, 8:30:49 PM1 trades$200 min
11/25/2025, 2:47:13 AM1 trades$1000 min
11/25/2025, 4:16:21 AM1 trades$1040 min
11/25/2025, 4:46:31 AM2 trades$1931 min
11/25/2025, 5:48:09 AM2 trades$771 min
11/25/2025, 6:32:21 AM2 trades$400 min
11/25/2025, 6:45:07 AM2 trades$570 min
11/25/2025, 7:01:27 AM1 trades$1000 min
11/25/2025, 8:18:09 AM2 trades$391 min
11/25/2025, 11:26:31 AM2 trades$1102 min
11/25/2025, 1:49:21 PM1 trades$170 min
11/25/2025, 2:11:19 PM1 trades$1000 min
11/26/2025, 3:52:33 AM3 trades$2406 min
11/26/2025, 4:11:21 AM1 trades$200 min
11/26/2025, 4:23:47 AM1 trades$500 min
11/26/2025, 5:06:59 AM1 trades$200 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-25
12-03
02-15
03-18
04-13
05-23
05-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0.1% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
17% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event