Polydata

@Hard-To-Find-Arrest

#2,599,23597

0xd4a4946003fa9345df1ad83e63c587dc81aa9cc0

224d· 837 markets · 1025 tradesVol: $68,409 @NVamsick2026-05-22T04:30
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

97
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 4.36x15/15
Sharpe 0.69413/15
Sortino 1.67910/10
EV $+0.1709/10
HHI 9910/10
Profit Days 94%10/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Hard-To-Find-Arrest is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having executed 1,025 trades across 552 markets over 189 days. Despite a high volume of $68,409, their net PnL stands at -$830.77, placing them at rank #2,599,235 globally. Their portfolio value is currently zero, but they maintain a strong win rate of 91.8% and a profit factor of 4.36, reflecting effective trade selection. The trader’s Smart Score is an elite 97/100, indicating high skill, though their Bot Score of 15/100 confirms manual trading activity.

This trader prefers a diverse range of markets, though none are focused on weather. Hard-To-Find-Arrest exhibits a low-risk profile with a low sell percentage of 16% and an equity trend that remains stable, suggesting a cautious and consistent approach. Their Sharpe Ratio of 0.69 indicates moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the zero-day max drawdown duration points to effective risk management. The trader’s badges imply a style characterized by precision and composure, often capitalizing on winning streaks.

Hard-To-Find-Arrest’s key strengths include a high win rate and consistent performance, supported by their sniper-like timing and cool-headed decision-making. However, the negative net PnL despite strong metrics raises questions about the size or timing of losses relative to gains. Their flat equity trend and zero portfolio value may also signal challenges in capital deployment or trade sizing. Overall, while their strategy on Polymarket is disciplined, there are risks related to profitability sustainability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Win Streak
61 wins in a row
Consistent
32/34 days
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

5
CRYPTO#1,459,749$-675Vol: $57,461
🎭 CULTURE#743,092$-79Vol: $6,260
💰 FINANCE#584,403$-84Vol: $3,035
SPORTS#236,906$11Vol: $1,644
🏛️ POLITICS#1,096,026$-5Vol: $8

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-831
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$68,409
Total Redeem
$5,945
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
837
total markets
Trades
859B / 166S
Daily Volume
$52
Account Age
224d
since Oct 10, 2025

Periods

#2
Month
$-0
Vol: $144
All Time
$-831
Vol: $68,409

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
247W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$1,813
Win Rate
92%
323W / 29L
Profit Factor
4.36x
Avg Win
$5
Avg Loss
$-13

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $222 (17% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2$116
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$55
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$52
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$47
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$39
Valorant: Team Liquid Brazil vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5)$33
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$29
Ethereum Up or Down - November 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$28
XRP Up or Down - November 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$28
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$27

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$-63
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 2$-62
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$-40
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-29
XRP Up or Down - November 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$-24
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 2$-19
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$-18
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$-13
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$-11
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$-10

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.694
Sortino
1.679
HHI
99
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.170
Kelly %
84.1%
Half-Kelly
42.1%
Top-1 market
3.8%
Top-5 markets
15.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.9
Active Hours
22/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
30.6m
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.94
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 88s — typical for humanSize CV 1.94 — diverse, typical for human8% at night — normal sleep pattern22/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.86 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.6
Single entry
<=1
350 entries
<=2
492 entries
<=5
547 entries
<=10
551 entries
<=20
552 entries
<=50
552 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)3.5%
Mid (20-55c)12.7%
High (>55c)83.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 53.7%

Other$1,304

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
545

Single bracket

<=1
543 brackets
<=2
544 brackets
<=3
544 brackets
<=4
544 brackets
<=5
544 brackets
<=8
545 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/8/2025, 9:24:31 AM1 trades$50 min
11/23/2025, 4:55:35 AM3 trades$181 min
11/23/2025, 8:01:57 AM2 trades$192 min
11/24/2025, 4:25:51 PM3 trades$1553 min
11/24/2025, 5:09:05 PM1 trades$500 min
11/24/2025, 5:47:23 PM1 trades$1000 min
11/24/2025, 8:30:49 PM1 trades$200 min
11/25/2025, 2:47:13 AM1 trades$1000 min
11/25/2025, 2:52:51 AM1 trades$1000 min
11/25/2025, 4:16:21 AM1 trades$1040 min
11/25/2025, 4:46:31 AM2 trades$1931 min
11/25/2025, 5:48:09 AM2 trades$771 min
11/25/2025, 6:32:21 AM2 trades$400 min
11/25/2025, 6:45:07 AM2 trades$570 min
11/25/2025, 7:01:27 AM1 trades$1000 min
11/25/2025, 8:18:09 AM2 trades$391 min
11/25/2025, 8:35:21 AM1 trades$530 min
11/25/2025, 11:26:31 AM2 trades$1102 min
11/25/2025, 1:49:21 PM1 trades$170 min
11/25/2025, 1:54:43 PM1 trades$500 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-25
12-01
02-02
02-22
03-17
03-23
04-22

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
16.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event