Polydata

@Harmful-Confusion

#2,839,34081

0xb5065b103d9eab803aa430cc932c684d296ee7b2

73d· 4832 markets · 2265 tradesVol: $248,7132026-06-18T16:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

81
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 79%20/20
Profit Factor 12.10x15/15
Sharpe 0.3286/15
Sortino 0.3263/10
EV $+0.84610/10
HHI 1110/10
Profit Days 88%10/10
DD/Peak 37%7/10

Summary

Harmful-Confusion is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 2,265 trades executed across 977 markets over 73 days. Despite a high win rate of 91.4% and a strong profit factor of 12.10, their net PnL stands at -$3,160.14, placing them at rank #2,839,340 on the global leaderboard. Their portfolio value has declined to $55.50, reflecting an overall downward equity trend. The trader holds a Smart Score of 81/100, indicating strong trading skills, and a bot score of 65/100, suggesting a semi-automated trading approach.

Harmful-Confusion appears to favor a low-risk, high-frequency strategy, evidenced by a high number of trades and a very high win rate. They do not engage in selling positions, and their Sharpe ratio of 0.33 points to modest risk-adjusted returns. The absence of trades in weather markets indicates selective market preference. The trader's badges, including Sniper and Diamond Hands, imply a focus on precision and holding positions firmly. Their timing pattern suggests consistent activity without significant holding periods, supported by a max drawdown duration of zero days.

The key strength of Harmful-Confusion lies in their consistency and precision on Polymarket, with a solid ability to identify winning trades. However, the persistent negative net PnL and declining portfolio value highlight potential issues with position sizing or market selection. The semi-bot trading style may also limit adaptability in volatile environments. While their high win rate is impressive, the overall financial outcome suggests a need for strategy refinement to improve profitability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 79%
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
478 wins in a row
Consistent
28/32 days

Categories

1
CRYPTO#1,576,260$-3,160Vol: $248,713

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-3,160
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$248,713
Total Redeem
$24,953
Portfolio
$56
Predictions
4832
total markets
Trades
2265B / 0S
Daily Volume
$354
Account Age
73d
since Apr 6, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-846
Vol: $3,117
Week
$-531
Vol: $10,961
Month
$-32
Vol: $52,958
All Time
$-3,160
Vol: $248,713

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
79%
251W / 67L events
Realized PnL
$7,323
Win Rate
91%
478W / 45L
Profit Factor
12.1x
Avg Win
$26
Avg Loss
$-23

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $150 (1.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$50
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$50
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$50
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$49
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$49
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$49
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$49
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$49
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$49
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$49

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$-25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$-25

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.328
Sortino
0.326
HHI
11
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.846
Kelly %
82.8%
Half-Kelly
41.4%
Top-1 market
0.2%
Top-5 markets
1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
67.3
Very active
Markets / Day
29.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
15:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
21.8m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.98
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.1

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 277s — typical for humanSize CV 0.98 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.31 — human randomness67 trades/day — mass trading29 markets/day — mass coverage318 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 15:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.3
Moderate DCA
<=1
532 entries
<=2
649 entries
<=5
899 entries
<=10
975 entries
<=20
977 entries
<=50
977 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)100%
High (>55c)0%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 52.7%

Other$11,435

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
977

Single bracket

<=1
977 brackets
<=2
977 brackets
<=3
977 brackets
<=4
977 brackets
<=5
977 brackets
<=8
977 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/16/2026, 12:05:04 AM1 trades$180 min
5/16/2026, 1:50:08 AM1 trades$240 min
5/16/2026, 2:40:04 AM1 trades$200 min
5/16/2026, 5:55:02 AM1 trades$220 min
5/16/2026, 7:15:03 AM1 trades$200 min
5/16/2026, 7:20:04 AM1 trades$190 min
5/16/2026, 12:30:03 PM1 trades$180 min
5/16/2026, 1:25:03 PM1 trades$180 min
5/16/2026, 2:50:03 PM1 trades$190 min
5/16/2026, 3:40:02 PM1 trades$180 min
5/16/2026, 9:50:03 PM1 trades$200 min
5/16/2026, 11:25:04 PM1 trades$230 min
5/17/2026, 12:15:04 AM1 trades$250 min
5/17/2026, 1:30:03 AM1 trades$240 min
5/17/2026, 1:35:04 AM1 trades$240 min
5/17/2026, 2:30:04 AM1 trades$250 min
5/17/2026, 9:42:23 AM1 trades$250 min
5/18/2026, 2:14:59 AM5 trades$495 min
5/18/2026, 7:08:35 PM1 trades$250 min
5/18/2026, 7:17:58 PM1 trades$240 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-06
05-14
05-23
05-29
06-04
06-09
06-17
06-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event