Polydata
Harsh-Hay

@Harsh-Hay

#45,13896

0x58c352d6eb076d19e13cc927eb8d6bc86b96ac65

699d· 473 markets · 11091 tradesVol: $3,441,5822026-07-12T21:36
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 94%20/20
Profit Factor 12.41x15/15
Sharpe 0.78815/15
Sortino 0.5906/10
EV $+11.88810/10
HHI 8810/10
Profit Days 95%10/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Harsh-Hay is an experienced and highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #45138 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 566 days, they executed 11,091 trades across 223 markets, generating a net profit of $2,350.18 from a total trading volume exceeding $3.4 million. Their Smart Score of 96/100 places them in the elite category, reflecting consistent performance despite a moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.79 and a stable equity trend.

This trader favors a diverse range of markets, with no particular exposure to weather-related events. Harsh-Hay demonstrates a contrarian and sniper-style approach, leveraging high win rates of 93.2% and a remarkable profit factor of 52.85. Their trading is characterized by frequent entries and exits, with 30% of positions sold rather than held, suggesting a balanced risk profile that incorporates both short-term gains and strategic averaging down. The absence of drawdown duration indicates disciplined risk management and quick reaction to adverse moves.

Among Harsh-Hay’s strengths are their elite decision-making ability and high win rate, which contribute to steady profitability without significant equity erosion. However, the relatively low bot score suggests manual or semi-automated trading, which might limit scalability. Additionally, the flat portfolio value and equity trend imply limited capital growth, possibly due to conservative sizing or cash-outs. Overall, Harsh-Hay’s performance on Polymarket highlights a reliable yet cautious trading style that prioritizes consistent gains over aggressive expansion.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 94%
Profitable
PnL $+2,350
Lottery Player
99% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
100% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 35.1 entries/market
Win Streak
35 wins in a row
Consistent
152/160 days
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

2
CRYPTO#17,974$2,338Vol: $3,441,427
SPORTS#218,905$22Vol: $123

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,350
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,441,582
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
473
total markets
Trades
7783B / 3308S
Daily Volume
$9
Account Age
699d
since Aug 12, 2024

Periods

#2
Week
$11
Vol: $0
Month
$17
Vol: $35,218
All Time
$2,350
Vol: $3,441,582

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
95%
153W / 8L events
Realized PnL
$3,174
Win Rate
93%
179W / 13L
Profit Factor
52.85x
Avg Win
$19
Avg Loss
$-5

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $351 (10.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 28?$135
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 30?$119
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 15?$97
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 31?$77
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4?$73
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 16?$70
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 7?$64
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 27?$60
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3?$60
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 3?$60

Top Losers

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22?$-14
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 28?$-10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27?$-9
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 18?$-8
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27?$-7
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 20?$-4
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19?$-3
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 16?$-3
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 26?$-2
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.788
Sortino
0.590
HHI
88
Diversified
EV per $1
$11.888
Kelly %
91.5%
Half-Kelly
45.7%
Top-1 market
3.3%
Top-5 markets
11.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
45.8
Active
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
7:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
14.6m
between trades
Night Trading
12%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.65
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.5

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 64s — typical for humanSize CV 1.65 — diverse, typical for human12% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.94 — human randomness46 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 7:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
35.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
6 entries
<=2
14 entries
<=5
29 entries
<=10
52 entries
<=20
101 entries
<=50
177 entries
>50
45 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)99.2%
Mid (20-55c)0.8%
High (>55c)0%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 62.5%

Other$3,340
Up or Down$3

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.7
Events covered
131

Single bracket

<=1
68 brackets
<=2
109 brackets
<=3
125 brackets
<=4
130 brackets
<=5
131 brackets
<=8
131 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
11/10/2025, 5:45:11 AM1 trades$10 min
11/10/2025, 11:09:30 AM1 trades$10 min
11/12/2025, 10:47:13 AM1 trades$10 min
11/13/2025, 6:26:02 AM1 trades$10 min
11/13/2025, 5:52:46 PM1 trades$10 min
11/15/2025, 7:58:56 AM1 trades$00 min
11/15/2025, 8:12:34 AM1 trades$10 min
11/15/2025, 8:59:36 AM2 trades$24 min
11/24/2025, 6:34:09 PM2 trades$53 min
11/24/2025, 6:46:27 PM1 trades$20 min
11/24/2025, 7:47:59 PM2 trades$21 min
11/24/2025, 7:54:47 PM3 trades$24 min
11/25/2025, 5:11:11 AM3 trades$12 min
11/25/2025, 5:27:29 AM1 trades$10 min
11/25/2025, 5:53:29 AM2 trades$43 min
11/25/2025, 6:18:11 AM1 trades$10 min
11/25/2025, 6:37:09 AM1 trades$20 min
11/25/2025, 6:53:33 AM1 trades$10 min
11/25/2025, 7:16:07 AM1 trades$10 min
11/25/2025, 8:39:39 AM1 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-21
01-09
02-11
03-10
04-10
05-14
07-02

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
29.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 35.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.7 br/event