Polydata

@Heavy-Topsail

#1,55593

0x2d27e4d20f3b8a2ee3bc861d9b83752f338676d8

654d· 2309 markets · 158466 tradesVol: $415,245,376 @PolytraderApp2026-07-21T03:46
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

93
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 105.43x15/15
Sharpe 0.4088/15
Sortino 3544036.17510/10
EV $+37.98410/10
HHI 26810/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Heavy-Topsail is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1555 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $122,203.13. Over 894 days, they have executed 158,466 trades across 245 markets, accumulating a total volume exceeding $415 million. Despite the extensive activity, Heavy-Topsail’s portfolio value remains modest at $7,438.92, reflecting a consistent but cautious approach. Their win rate stands at 58.5%, and they hold an elite Smart Score of 93/100, indicating skilled market engagement.

Heavy-Topsail’s trading style is characterized by a blend of risk profiles, showing both contrarian and sniper-like precision, as represented by their badges. They focus on a wide range of markets but avoid weather markets entirely, preferring diversified opportunities. Their sell percentage is 41%, suggesting a balanced mix of holding and active position management. The trader’s Sharpe ratio of 0.41 and a profit factor of 0.14 show moderate risk-adjusted returns, while a max drawdown duration of zero days implies strong capital preservation and quick recovery periods. Heavy-Topsail operates with a semi-bot approach, combining automated and manual strategies.

The key strengths of Heavy-Topsail include consistent profitability, a high trade volume, and a stable equity trend, which demonstrates discipline and adaptability on Polymarket. However, the relatively low profit factor and modest Sharpe ratio highlight potential concerns about efficiency and risk management. Additionally, the flat portfolio growth suggests that while Heavy-Topsail is successful, scaling profits further or improving risk-adjusted returns could be challenging. Overall, Heavy-Topsail’s data reflects a seasoned trader with solid fundamentals and room for optimization.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Profitable
PnL $+122,203
Lottery Player
93% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
97% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 383.8 entries/market
Win Streak
19 wins in a row
Whale
$1,457,431
Consistent
80/80 days
High Roller
$1,630/day

Categories

9
SPORTS#1,169$60,629Vol: $216,234,416
🏛️ POLITICS#1,837$24,965Vol: $119,990,539
📈 ECONOMICS#610$9,615Vol: $36,741,492
🎭 CULTURE#946$8,563Vol: $26,105,176
CRYPTO#7,727$6,215Vol: $6,619,741
💰 FINANCE#2,439$1,877Vol: $4,694,019
💻 TECH#883$1,823Vol: $1,674,483
📢 MENTIONS#2,292$469Vol: $79,664
🌤️ WEATHER#228,888$-5Vol: $160

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$122,203
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$415,245,376
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$7,439
Predictions
2309
total markets
Trades
92885B / 65581S
Daily Volume
$1,630
Account Age
654d
since Oct 4, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $30
Week
$0
Vol: $34,452
Month
$179
Vol: $543,939
All Time
$122,203
Vol: $415,245,376

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
109W / 1L events
Realized PnL
$283,548
Win Rate
59%
141W / 100L
Profit Factor
0.14x
Avg Win
$393
Avg Loss
$-4,100

Top Winners

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meetin$7,123
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$4,999
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?$2,845
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or?$1,447
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated?$1,438
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$1,425
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?$1,091
Will the HBO documentary identify Adam Back as Satoshi?$994
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meetin$983
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025?$950

Top Losers

Pacers vs. Knicks$-38,509
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$-26,684
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?$-22,235
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?$-21,932
Knicks vs. Pacers$-20,984
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League?$-13,776
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?$-13,593
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan$-12,806
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?$-10,643
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?$-10,588

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.408
Sortino
inf
HHI
268
Diversified
EV per $1
$37.984
Kelly %
11.6%
Half-Kelly
5.8%
Top-1 market
7.7%
Top-5 markets
26.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
242.2
Very active
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
50s
between trades
Avg Gap
5.3m
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
10.06
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.3

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 50s — typical for humanSize CV 10.06 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.92 — human randomness242 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
383.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
4 entries
<=2
8 entries
<=5
10 entries
<=10
19 entries
<=20
37 entries
<=50
56 entries
>50
186 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)93.4%
Mid (20-55c)4.4%
High (>55c)2.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 76.8%

Toronto$244
Chicago$230
Atlanta$222
Miami$193
Your Dragon$132
New York City$59
Hatt$0
Houston$-1,302
Munich$-3,607
Madrid$-4,232
Paris$-4,928
Milan$-17,986
Other$-323,582

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.3
Events covered
108

Moderate coverage

<=1
73 brackets
<=2
90 brackets
<=3
94 brackets
<=4
96 brackets
<=5
97 brackets
<=8
102 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/4/2024, 7:41:32 PM9 trades$3111 min
10/4/2024, 8:06:28 PM3 trades$65 min
10/4/2024, 8:49:25 PM1 trades$00 min
10/4/2024, 9:05:53 PM1 trades$50 min
10/4/2024, 9:16:56 PM1 trades$20 min
10/5/2024, 2:12:32 AM6 trades$102 min
10/5/2024, 2:32:40 AM1 trades$140 min
10/5/2024, 2:55:26 AM1 trades$140 min
10/5/2024, 3:39:34 AM2 trades$50 min
10/5/2024, 3:53:16 AM3 trades$255 min
10/5/2024, 4:20:52 AM2 trades$55 min
10/5/2024, 4:31:39 AM2 trades$160 min
10/5/2024, 4:55:29 AM1 trades$250 min
10/5/2024, 5:13:05 AM2 trades$220 min
10/5/2024, 5:28:08 AM1 trades$240 min
10/5/2024, 6:02:30 AM1 trades$200 min
10/5/2024, 6:23:32 AM2 trades$251 min
10/5/2024, 7:52:50 AM1 trades$210 min
10/5/2024, 8:45:33 AM1 trades$160 min
10/5/2024, 9:22:28 AM1 trades$400 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-22
03-05
05-07
06-16
09-27
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
41.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 383.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.3 br/event