Polydata

@Horrible-Waterbed

#2,213,41492

0x2e05a8a1fcd182e0dda24aeab504ab82bf9da019

39d· 376 markets · 846 tradesVol: $10,0642026-05-16T01:43
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

92
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 2.75x15/15
Sharpe 0.98215/15
Sortino 102874.45610/10
EV $+0.0452/10
HHI 5610/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Horrible-Waterbed is an active trader on Polymarket with 846 trades across 260 markets over 26 days. Despite a net loss of $76.48 and a global rank of #2,213,414, the trader demonstrates a high level of activity and engagement, reflected in a total volume of $10,064. Their Smart Score of 92/100 places them in the elite category, indicating strong trading skills despite the current negative PnL. The portfolio value stands at zero, suggesting recent liquidation or full withdrawal from positions.

This trader shows a preference for a diverse range of markets but notably avoids weather markets, focusing instead on other event types. Horrible-Waterbed exhibits a contrarian style with a 26% sell rate and a strong win rate of 81.4%, supported by a profit factor of 2.75. The Sharpe Ratio of 0.98 implies moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the absence of drawdown duration suggests disciplined risk management. Their timing appears precise, as indicated by badges like Sniper and Win Streak, highlighting consistent and well-timed entries.

Horrible-Waterbed’s strengths include high consistency and a strong win rate, which are valuable on Polymarket’s dynamic platform. However, the current negative net PnL and flat equity trend raise concerns about recent market conditions or strategy execution. The low bot score suggests human decision-making, which can be both an advantage in flexibility and a risk if emotional biases arise. Overall, the trader’s profile indicates skillful but currently challenged trading performance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Contrarian
57% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
17 wins in a row
Consistent
9/9 days

Categories

3
CRYPTO#1,298,707$-75Vol: $10,004
SPORTS#664,173$-0Vol: $50
🌤️ WEATHER#166,462$-1Vol: $10

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-76
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$10,064
Total Redeem
$1,758
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
376
total markets
Trades
630B / 216S
Daily Volume
$99
Account Age
39d
since Apr 9, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $0
Month
$-1
Vol: $160
All Time
$-76
Vol: $10,064

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
206W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$926
Win Rate
81%
193W / 24L
Profit Factor
2.75x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $32 (28.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$11
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$6
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$5

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.982
Sortino
inf
HHI
56
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.045
Kelly %
33.5%
Half-Kelly
16.7%
Top-1 market
1.9%
Top-5 markets
7.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
32.3
Active
Markets / Day
9.9
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
26s
between trades
Avg Gap
9.7m
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.68
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.3

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 26s — typical for humanSize CV 0.68 — diverse, typical for human14% at night — normal sleep pattern21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.29 — human randomness32 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.4
Moderate DCA
<=1
68 entries
<=2
175 entries
<=5
250 entries
<=10
259 entries
<=20
260 entries
<=50
260 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.4%
Mid (20-55c)89.7%
High (>55c)8.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 44.6%

Other$110

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
260

Single bracket

<=1
260 brackets
<=2
260 brackets
<=3
260 brackets
<=4
260 brackets
<=5
260 brackets
<=8
260 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/9/2026, 8:56:27 AM2 trades$81 min
4/9/2026, 9:20:15 AM4 trades$104 min
4/9/2026, 9:33:13 AM8 trades$207 min
4/9/2026, 9:45:45 AM4 trades$229 min
4/9/2026, 10:10:37 AM4 trades$152 min
4/9/2026, 10:18:35 AM2 trades$50 min
4/9/2026, 10:50:37 AM8 trades$2914 min
4/9/2026, 11:35:19 AM14 trades$5929 min
4/9/2026, 12:11:47 PM2 trades$103 min
4/9/2026, 12:35:17 PM6 trades$153 min
4/9/2026, 12:44:31 PM7 trades$299 min
4/9/2026, 12:59:07 PM3 trades$154 min
4/9/2026, 1:08:29 PM8 trades$3416 min
4/9/2026, 1:30:03 PM1 trades$50 min
4/9/2026, 2:12:09 PM4 trades$144 min
4/9/2026, 2:21:31 PM6 trades$158 min
4/9/2026, 2:35:13 PM12 trades$4921 min
4/9/2026, 3:02:13 PM3 trades$100 min
4/9/2026, 3:07:49 PM2 trades$102 min
4/14/2026, 10:29:29 AM4 trades$190 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-09
04-14
04-15
04-20
04-21
04-22
04-27
04-28
05-05

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
25.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event