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@Horrible-Waterbed

#2,362,54792

0x2e05a8a1fcd182e0dda24aeab504ab82bf9da019

99d· 376 markets · 846 tradesVol: $10,0642026-06-27T06:46
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

92
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 99%20/20
Profit Factor 2.75x15/15
Sharpe 0.98215/15
Sortino 102874.45610/10
EV $+0.0452/10
HHI 5610/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Horrible-Waterbed is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having placed 846 trades across 260 markets over 26 days. Despite a high Smart Score of 92, indicating elite trading skill, their net profit and loss stands at -$76.48, ranking them #2,362,547 globally. The trader has maintained a portfolio value of zero and a nearly neutral equity trend, suggesting limited capital growth.

This trader favors a high-volume, diversified approach with a strong win rate of 81.4% and a profit factor of 2.75, reflecting efficient risk-reward management. Horrible-Waterbed appears to adopt a contrarian style, supported by badges like Contrarian and Sniper, and holds positions mostly without selling quickly, as only 26% of trades were sells. Their Sharpe ratio of 0.98 and zero-day max drawdown duration imply moderate risk with steady returns over short active periods.

Horrible-Waterbed’s main strength lies in consistent, high-accuracy trading with disciplined risk control, as evidenced by their win streak and consistent badges. However, the negative net PnL despite strong performance metrics suggests potential issues with position sizing or timing. Additionally, their bot score indicates human trading behavior, which may affect reaction speed in fast-moving markets. Overall, Horrible-Waterbed demonstrates skillful trading but faces challenges in translating efficiency into profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 99%
Contrarian
57% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
17 wins in a row
Consistent
9/9 days

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,381,065$-75Vol: $10,004
🌤️ WEATHER#178,636$-1Vol: $10

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-76
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$10,064
Total Redeem
$1,758
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
376
total markets
Trades
630B / 216S
Daily Volume
$99
Account Age
99d
since Apr 9, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $0
Month
$-1
Vol: $0
All Time
$-76
Vol: $10,064

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
99%
206W / 3L events
Realized PnL
$926
Win Rate
81%
193W / 24L
Profit Factor
2.75x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-3

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $32 (28.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$11
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$6
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$5

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.982
Sortino
inf
HHI
56
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.045
Kelly %
33.5%
Half-Kelly
16.7%
Top-1 market
1.9%
Top-5 markets
7.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
32.3
Active
Markets / Day
9.9
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
26s
between trades
Avg Gap
9.7m
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.68
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
6 min
Avg Trades / Session
6.3

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 26s — typical for humanSize CV 0.68 — diverse, typical for human14% at night — normal sleep pattern21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 1.29 — human randomness32 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.4
Moderate DCA
<=1
68 entries
<=2
175 entries
<=5
250 entries
<=10
259 entries
<=20
260 entries
<=50
260 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.4%
Mid (20-55c)89.7%
High (>55c)8.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 44.6%

Other$110

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
260

Single bracket

<=1
260 brackets
<=2
260 brackets
<=3
260 brackets
<=4
260 brackets
<=5
260 brackets
<=8
260 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/9/2026, 8:56:27 AM2 trades$81 min
4/9/2026, 9:20:15 AM4 trades$104 min
4/9/2026, 9:33:13 AM8 trades$207 min
4/9/2026, 9:45:45 AM4 trades$229 min
4/9/2026, 10:10:37 AM4 trades$152 min
4/9/2026, 10:18:35 AM2 trades$50 min
4/9/2026, 10:50:37 AM8 trades$2914 min
4/9/2026, 11:35:19 AM14 trades$5929 min
4/9/2026, 12:11:47 PM2 trades$103 min
4/9/2026, 12:35:17 PM6 trades$153 min
4/9/2026, 12:44:31 PM7 trades$299 min
4/9/2026, 12:59:07 PM3 trades$154 min
4/9/2026, 1:08:29 PM8 trades$3416 min
4/9/2026, 1:30:03 PM1 trades$50 min
4/9/2026, 2:12:09 PM4 trades$144 min
4/9/2026, 2:21:31 PM6 trades$158 min
4/9/2026, 2:35:13 PM12 trades$4921 min
4/9/2026, 3:02:13 PM3 trades$100 min
4/9/2026, 3:07:49 PM2 trades$102 min
4/14/2026, 10:29:29 AM4 trades$190 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-09
04-14
04-15
04-20
04-21
04-22
04-27
04-28
05-05

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
25.5% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event