Polydata

@Hot-Ceramic

#129,22495

0xfd39cfaa3e9e89abe8879fa63cccac5fa6b19392

47d· 1927 markets · 1872 tradesVol: $246,5022026-06-02T12:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 64%17/20
Profit Factor 134.32x15/15
Sharpe 0.70413/15
Sortino 842013.92410/10
EV $+0.35610/10
HHI 3110/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Hot-Ceramic is an elite trader on Polymarket, currently ranked #129224 on the global PnL leaderboard. With a net profit of $315.90 generated over 1,872 trades and 42 days active, this trader exhibits consistent profitability. Their total trading volume exceeds $246,000, reflecting high activity across nearly 1,000 markets. The portfolio value is steadily growing, supported by a strong win rate of 98.5% and a profit factor of 134.32, indicating highly efficient trading performance.

The trading style of Hot-Ceramic combines both bot-assisted and manual strategies, as suggested by their semi-bot score of 65/100. They maintain a low-risk profile with a Sharpe ratio of 0.70 and zero max drawdown days, showing effective risk management and resilience. Hot-Ceramic trades predominantly without engaging in weather markets and rarely sells positions (5%), suggesting a preference for holding winning bets and capitalizing on long-term trends. Their timing appears disciplined, supported by badges like Sniper and Win Streak, which imply precision and consistency in market entry and exit.

Key strengths of Hot-Ceramic include an exceptional win rate, strong profit factor, and an upward equity trend, all of which underscore robust trading skills on Polymarket. However, the relatively low sell percentage may expose the trader to market shifts if positions are held too long without adjustment. Additionally, the reliance on semi-automated trading requires ongoing monitoring to ensure adaptability to changing market conditions. Overall, Hot-Ceramic’s data reflects a high-performing yet cautious approach with solid potential for continued success.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 64%
Profitable
PnL $+316
Diamond Hands
5% sell
Win Streak
194 wins in a row
Whale
$77,619
Consistent
23/23 days
High Roller
$1,848/day

Categories

1
CRYPTO#48,809$316Vol: $246,502

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$316
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$246,502
Total Redeem
$71,904
Portfolio
$1,041
Predictions
1927
total markets
Trades
1780B / 92S
Daily Volume
$1,848
Account Age
47d
since Apr 17, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1,185
Vol: $24,593
Week
$-724
Vol: $43,083
Month
$-724
Vol: $40,713
All Time
$316
Vol: $246,502

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
64%
253W / 145L events
Realized PnL
$17,081
Win Rate
99%
469W / 7L
Profit Factor
134.32x
Avg Win
$42
Avg Loss
$-21

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $314 (1.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$105
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$105
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2PM ET$104
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$102
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8PM ET$100
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$99
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$98
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET$98
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$98
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$98

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$-52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$-29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$-20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$-16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$-13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$-7

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.704
Sortino
inf
HHI
31
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.356
Kelly %
97.8%
Half-Kelly
48.9%
Top-1 market
1.1%
Top-5 markets
5.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
73.6
Very active
Markets / Day
38.5
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
38s
between trades
Avg Gap
20.0m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.20
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.6

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 38s — typical for humanSize CV 1.20 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.02 — human randomness74 trades/day — mass trading39 markets/day — mass coverage398 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.8
Single entry
<=1
649 entries
<=2
820 entries
<=5
938 entries
<=10
973 entries
<=20
980 entries
<=50
980 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.4%
Mid (20-55c)68.3%
High (>55c)31.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 75.4%

Other$19,366

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
980

Single bracket

<=1
980 brackets
<=2
980 brackets
<=3
980 brackets
<=4
980 brackets
<=5
980 brackets
<=8
980 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/8/2026, 1:16:47 AM1 trades$100 min
5/8/2026, 7:10:36 AM2 trades$70 min
5/8/2026, 8:38:03 AM1 trades$30 min
5/8/2026, 8:45:13 AM2 trades$223 min
5/8/2026, 8:59:50 AM1 trades$100 min
5/8/2026, 11:17:14 AM2 trades$163 min
5/8/2026, 1:31:35 PM2 trades$50 min
5/9/2026, 1:37:02 AM3 trades$231 min
5/9/2026, 1:43:58 AM4 trades$101 min
5/9/2026, 2:33:12 AM3 trades$134 min
5/9/2026, 5:00:58 AM1 trades$40 min
5/9/2026, 8:14:10 AM1 trades$50 min
5/9/2026, 10:02:40 AM3 trades$151 min
5/9/2026, 10:09:42 AM1 trades$50 min
5/9/2026, 2:19:23 PM1 trades$100 min
5/9/2026, 2:29:55 PM3 trades$211 min
5/9/2026, 3:46:53 PM1 trades$50 min
5/9/2026, 3:55:54 PM2 trades$154 min
5/9/2026, 4:57:23 PM1 trades$40 min
5/9/2026, 5:29:37 PM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-11
05-14
05-17
05-20
05-23
05-26
05-29
06-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.9% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event