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@Hot-Ceramic

#2,843,82793

0xfd39cfaa3e9e89abe8879fa63cccac5fa6b19392

92d· 1948 markets · 1908 tradesVol: $250,5252026-07-15T11:48
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

93
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 62%16/20
Profit Factor 139.88x15/15
Sharpe 0.63012/15
Sortino 807002.05210/10
EV $+0.35910/10
HHI 2910/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Hot-Ceramic is an active Polymarket trader with 1,908 trades executed over 42 days, ranking #2,843,827 globally by net PnL. Despite a negative net PnL of -$712.18, the trader maintains a high Smart Score of 93/100, indicating elite-level skill. The total trading volume exceeds $250,000 across 1,005 markets, reflecting broad market participation and consistent engagement.

The trader’s strategy appears focused on high-frequency trading with a strong preference for holding positions long, as indicated by a low sell percentage of 4%. Hot-Ceramic exhibits a conservative risk profile with a Sharpe ratio of 0.63 and no recorded drawdown duration, suggesting effective risk management. The near-perfect win rate of 98.6% and a profit factor of 139.88 highlight a highly disciplined approach, likely relying on precise timing and selective market entries.

Key strengths of Hot-Ceramic include consistent performance, as shown by an upward equity trend and multiple badges such as Sniper and Diamond Hands. However, despite high accuracy, the negative net PnL and zero portfolio value raise concerns about the overall profitability and sustainability of the strategy. Additionally, a semi-bot score of 65 suggests a blend of automated and manual trading, which may introduce variability in execution quality over time.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 62%
Diamond Hands
5% sell
Win Streak
196 wins in a row
Whale
$80,418
Consistent
25/25 days
High Roller
$1,915/day

Categories

1
₿ CRYPTO#1,578,432$-712Vol: $250,525

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-712
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$250,525
Total Redeem
$74,381
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1948
total markets
Trades
1822B / 86S
Daily Volume
$1,915
Account Age
92d
since Apr 17, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
62%
250W / 155L events
Realized PnL
$17,557
Win Rate
99%
480W / 7L
Profit Factor
139.88x
Avg Win
$42
Avg Loss
$-21

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $314 (1.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$105
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$105
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2PM ET$104
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$104
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$102
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8PM ET$100
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$99
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$98
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$98
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET$98

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$-52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$-29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$-20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$-16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$-13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$-7

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.630
Sortino
inf
HHI
29
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.358
Kelly %
97.9%
Half-Kelly
48.9%
Top-1 market
1%
Top-5 markets
4.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
69.4
Very active
Markets / Day
36.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
38s
between trades
Avg Gap
20.6m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.19
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.6

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 38s — typical for humanSize CV 1.19 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.02 — human randomness69 trades/day — mass trading37 markets/day — mass coverage405 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.8
Single entry
<=1
668 entries
<=2
841 entries
<=5
961 entries
<=10
998 entries
<=20
1005 entries
<=50
1005 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.4%
Mid (20-55c)68.6%
High (>55c)31.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 75.8%

Other$20,175

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
906

Single bracket

<=1
906 brackets
<=2
906 brackets
<=3
906 brackets
<=4
906 brackets
<=5
906 brackets
<=8
906 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/8/2026, 1:16:47 AM1 trades$100 min
5/8/2026, 7:10:36 AM2 trades$70 min
5/8/2026, 8:38:03 AM1 trades$30 min
5/8/2026, 8:45:13 AM2 trades$223 min
5/8/2026, 8:59:50 AM1 trades$100 min
5/8/2026, 11:17:14 AM2 trades$163 min
5/8/2026, 1:31:35 PM2 trades$50 min
5/9/2026, 1:37:02 AM3 trades$231 min
5/9/2026, 1:43:58 AM4 trades$101 min
5/9/2026, 2:33:12 AM3 trades$134 min
5/9/2026, 5:00:58 AM1 trades$40 min
5/9/2026, 8:14:10 AM1 trades$50 min
5/9/2026, 10:02:40 AM3 trades$151 min
5/9/2026, 10:09:42 AM1 trades$50 min
5/9/2026, 2:19:23 PM1 trades$100 min
5/9/2026, 2:29:55 PM3 trades$211 min
5/9/2026, 3:46:53 PM2 trades$103 min
5/9/2026, 3:55:19 PM3 trades$215 min
5/9/2026, 4:57:23 PM1 trades$40 min
5/9/2026, 5:29:37 PM1 trades$50 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
05-11
05-15
05-19
05-23
05-27
05-31
06-04

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.5% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event