Polydata
Idealistic-Supporter

@Idealistic-Supporter

#2,800,616100

0x79d6c6bd55e53c859b51613a4598f51011c1d2e2

655d· 1909 markets · 3084 tradesVol: $92,5392026-07-16T22:06
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

100
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 86%20/20
Profit Factor 158.31x15/15
Sharpe 0.93315/15
Sortino 15162.14710/10
EV $+27.23310/10
HHI 24710/10
Profit Days 99%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Idealistic-Supporter is a highly active trader on Polymarket, with over 3,000 trades across 618 markets and a total volume exceeding $92,000. Despite ranking relatively low at #2,800,616 on the global PnL leaderboard, they maintain an elite Smart Score of 100/100, indicating strong skill and strategy. Their net PnL currently stands at -$471.16, with a portfolio value of $58.06 after 422 days of consistent activity.

This trader primarily focuses on weather markets, which make up 58% of their trades, and exhibits a contrarian style combined with sniper-like precision. Idealistic-Supporter shows a moderate risk profile, reflected in a 71.5% win rate and a profit factor of 4.02, suggesting efficient risk-reward management. They tend to hold positions short-term, as indicated by a max drawdown duration of zero days and a relatively low sell percentage of 25%, implying selective exits and timing.

Idealistic-Supporter’s key strengths include a solid Sharpe ratio of 0.93 and an upward equity trend, signaling steady growth and consistent performance. However, their net negative PnL and modest portfolio value highlight potential concerns around capital allocation or market volatility. Additionally, the low Bot Score suggests manual, fast-paced trading, which may introduce execution risks in volatile conditions.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 86%
Lottery Player
69% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
82% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
17 wins in a row
Consistent
109/110 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#1,355,784$-19Vol: $22,470
🌤️ WEATHER#17,397$17Vol: $16,413
CRYPTO#1,496,386$-166Vol: $13,930
🎭 CULTURE#28,638$55Vol: $13,557
SPORTS#1,716,813$-198Vol: $9,204
💰 FINANCE#605,535$-42Vol: $5,620
💻 TECH#244,636$-112Vol: $1,965
📈 ECONOMICS#21,289$33Vol: $1,527
📢 MENTIONS#128,231$-12Vol: $286

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-471
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$92,539
Total Redeem
$5
Portfolio
$58
Predictions
1909
total markets
Trades
2316B / 768S
Daily Volume
$6
Account Age
655d
since Sep 29, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$5
Vol: $2,561
Week
$16
Vol: $10,150
Month
$39
Vol: $17,543
All Time
$-471
Vol: $92,539

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
89%
266W / 32L events
Realized PnL
$1,671
Win Rate
72%
108W / 43L
Profit Factor
4.02x
Avg Win
$7
Avg Loss
$-4

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $89 (15.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" score at least 76 on the Rotte$35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$26
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?$25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$25
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?$23
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?$23
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on March $20
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$18
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season?$17

Top Losers

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2$-12
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs$-12
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca$-10
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - European Pro League$-8
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15$-7
Warriors vs. Grizzlies$-6
Clippers vs. Lakers$-6
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca$-6
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Virginia Cavaliers$-6
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Santa Clara Broncos$-6

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.933
Sortino
inf
HHI
247
Diversified
EV per $1
$27.233
Kelly %
24.4%
Half-Kelly
12.2%
Top-1 market
7.6%
Top-5 markets
29.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
19.8
Active
Markets / Day
4.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
8.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
47.8m
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.48
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 516s — typical for humanSize CV 1.48 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.87 — human randomness20 trades/day — very active350 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.7
Moderate DCA
<=1
188 entries
<=2
334 entries
<=5
517 entries
<=10
593 entries
<=20
609 entries
<=50
616 entries
>50
2 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)69%
Mid (20-55c)16.5%
High (>55c)14.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 34.1%

Other$502
Taipei$24
Shanghai$9
Mexico City$8
London$6
Wuhan$6
Dallas$5
Ankara$4
Istanbul$4
Hong Kong$3
New York City$3
Chicago$3
Wellington$3
Austin$0
San Francisco$0
Beijing$0
Seattle$0
Moscow$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
487

Single bracket

<=1
426 brackets
<=2
466 brackets
<=3
475 brackets
<=4
480 brackets
<=5
480 brackets
<=8
483 brackets
>8
4 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/11/2026, 6:30:47 AM1 trades$100 min
2/11/2026, 9:07:39 AM1 trades$40 min
2/11/2026, 9:25:59 AM1 trades$50 min
2/12/2026, 4:56:47 PM1 trades$220 min
2/12/2026, 9:52:33 PM1 trades$20 min
2/13/2026, 1:21:23 AM1 trades$10 min
2/13/2026, 9:07:57 AM1 trades$30 min
2/13/2026, 9:42:39 AM1 trades$30 min
2/13/2026, 10:44:55 AM2 trades$55 min
2/14/2026, 9:04:49 PM1 trades$20 min
2/14/2026, 9:14:09 PM1 trades$50 min
2/14/2026, 10:59:15 PM1 trades$10 min
2/15/2026, 1:11:49 AM2 trades$62 min
2/15/2026, 4:49:39 AM1 trades$30 min
2/15/2026, 5:00:51 AM1 trades$30 min
2/15/2026, 2:16:09 PM2 trades$54 min
2/15/2026, 6:21:23 PM2 trades$23 min
2/15/2026, 6:33:05 PM4 trades$96 min
2/16/2026, 1:18:41 AM1 trades$20 min
2/16/2026, 12:54:31 PM2 trades$51 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-26
02-09
03-01
04-01
06-15
07-17
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
58.4% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
24.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event