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@Identical-Schooner

#2,871,74983

0x7de1485258106dcc8d200394c19994aa9b75e0de

260d· 386 markets · 567 tradesVol: $1,192,3892026-06-18T03:37
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

83
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 56%13/20
Profit Factor 3.12x15/15
Sharpe 0.4208/15
Sortino 0.6937/10
EV $+3.44210/10
HHI 40210/10
Profit Days 70%10/10
DD/Peak 10%10/10

Summary

Identical-Schooner is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 567 trades across 313 markets over 438 days. Despite significant trading volume of nearly $1.2 million, their net PnL stands at negative $14,545.62, placing them at rank #2,871,749 on the global leaderboard. Their Smart Score of 83/100 indicates strong trading skills, while their portfolio value remains stable around $848.75.

Their trading style shows a preference for diverse markets, avoiding weather-related questions entirely. Identical-Schooner maintains a contrarian approach, supported by a 62.3% win rate and a high profit factor of 7.33, suggesting efficient risk management. With a moderate sell percentage of 30% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.42, the trader exhibits a balanced risk profile and a consistent timing pattern without prolonged drawdown periods.

Key strengths for Identical-Schooner include a very good Smart Score and consistent performance as indicated by their badges, such as “Contrarian” and “Win Streak.” However, the negative net PnL and relatively low portfolio value highlight potential risks in sustaining profitability. Their low bot score suggests manual decision-making, which may contribute to steadiness but also limits scalability.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Contrarian
70% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
12 wins in a row
Whale
$174,673
Consistent
64/91 days
Cool Head
DD 10%

Categories

5
₿ CRYPTO#1,588,465$-15,991Vol: $798,946
🏛️ POLITICS#18,450$936Vol: $382,803
🌤️ WEATHER#248,198$-20Vol: $8,151
💰 FINANCE#6,148$533Vol: $2,371
💻 TECH#199,296$-4Vol: $118

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-14,546
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,192,389
Total Redeem
$34,224
Portfolio
$849
Predictions
386
total markets
Trades
398B / 169S
Daily Volume
$399
Account Age
260d
since Oct 15, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-162
Vol: $0
Week
$-214
Vol: $16,960
Month
$-2,356
Vol: $89,383
All Time
$-14,546
Vol: $1,192,389

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
56%
147W / 114L events
Realized PnL
$42,775
Win Rate
62%
137W / 83L
Profit Factor
7.33x
Avg Win
$309
Avg Loss
$-70

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $4,950 (13.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?$2,147
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 20?$1,552
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 21?$1,251
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 15?$1,114
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1?$1,102
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?$1,098
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 26?$1,027
Ethereum Up or Down on February 5?$1,012
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12AM ET$1,008
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4?$999

Top Losers

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?$-1,407
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$-268
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$-100
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 16?$-100
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$-100
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET$-100
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$-100
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$-99
Ethereum Up or Down on March 10?$-99
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$-98

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.420
Sortino
0.693
HHI
402
Diversified
EV per $1
$3.442
Kelly %
24.4%
Half-Kelly
12.2%
Top-1 market
12.1%
Top-5 markets
37.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.3
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.3
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
15.7m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.5h
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.84
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 941s — typical for humanSize CV 3.84 — diverse, typical for human18% at night — different timezone?23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.51 — semi-mechanical

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
262 entries
<=2
297 entries
<=5
310 entries
<=10
313 entries
<=20
313 entries
<=50
313 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)24.4%
Mid (20-55c)55.3%
High (>55c)20.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 4.5%

Other$31,774
Up or Down$4,738

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
295

Single bracket

<=1
284 brackets
<=2
289 brackets
<=3
294 brackets
<=4
295 brackets
<=5
295 brackets
<=8
295 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/18/2025, 11:47:04 AM2 trades$954 min
10/19/2025, 1:20:15 PM4 trades$1708 min
10/19/2025, 1:38:49 PM1 trades$430 min
10/19/2025, 1:44:31 PM4 trades$1886 min
10/20/2025, 6:38:11 AM1 trades$150 min
10/26/2025, 4:20:59 PM1 trades$220 min
10/26/2025, 4:28:51 PM1 trades$130 min
11/3/2025, 11:17:03 PM1 trades$1,3890 min
11/4/2025, 11:21:13 AM1 trades$1,3840 min
11/4/2025, 5:28:55 PM1 trades$1,6960 min
11/4/2025, 5:51:21 PM1 trades$1,6560 min
11/14/2025, 2:24:52 PM1 trades$890 min
11/14/2025, 8:47:08 PM2 trades$1,2001 min
11/15/2025, 4:25:52 AM1 trades$1090 min
11/15/2025, 5:40:49 PM1 trades$1290 min
11/21/2025, 11:17:17 AM1 trades$3190 min
11/21/2025, 8:21:43 PM1 trades$3900 min
11/22/2025, 11:02:23 PM1 trades$5000 min
11/25/2025, 12:26:57 PM1 trades$1470 min
12/3/2025, 6:53:23 AM1 trades$8690 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-04
12-31
01-31
03-26
05-14
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
29.8% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event