Polydata

@Idle-Life-Lard

#172,74674

0xc97ec8059025a28f61666d5202292c858b2809ab

13d· 4657 markets · 2106 tradesVol: $62,7792026-07-18T06:59
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

74
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 69%19/20
Profit Factor 0.12x0/15
Sharpe 1.05715/15
Sortino 6.84210/10
HHI 2210/10
Profit Days 88%10/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Idle-Life-Lard is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 15 days of activity and 2,106 trades across 758 markets. Their net profit and loss stands at $198.93, placing them at rank #172,746 on the global PnL leaderboard. Despite a relatively low portfolio value of $54.23, their Smart Score of 74/100 indicates strong trading skill, supported by a Sharpe Ratio of 1.06, reflecting decent risk-adjusted returns.

This trader exclusively focuses on weather markets, demonstrating a highly specialized approach. With a win rate of 46.2% and a low sell percentage of 7%, Idle-Life-Lard appears to employ a patient, holding strategy rather than frequent exiting. The high Bot Score of 90/100 suggests they primarily use automated trading systems, which may enable consistent execution and rapid response to market conditions. Their profit factor of 0.12 and sniper badge imply a focus on precise, targeted trades, though overall profitability is modest.

Idle-Life-Lard’s key strengths include disciplined risk management, as evidenced by zero max drawdown duration and an upward equity trend. Their automation and specialization in weather markets may provide an edge in niche prediction areas. However, their low profit factor and relatively small portfolio value could pose challenges to scaling profits. Continued monitoring of their evolving strategy and market conditions on Polymarket will be important to assess long-term potential.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 69%
Profitable
PnL $+199
Diamond Hands
7% sell
Weather Pro
100% weather
Bot
Score 90/100
Hedger
avg 6.0 brackets/event
Win Streak
35 wins in a row
Consistent
14/16 days
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#4,681$199Vol: $62,779

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$199
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$62,779
Total Redeem
$7
Portfolio
$54
Predictions
4657
total markets
Trades
1964B / 142S
Daily Volume
$535
Account Age
13d
since Jul 4, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$4
Vol: $1,722
Week
$78
Vol: $30,217
Month
$199
Vol: $62,779
All Time
$199
Vol: $62,779

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
83%
135W / 28L events
Realized PnL
$3,336
Win Rate
46%
269W / 313L
Profit Factor
0.12x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-9

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 17?$18
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 17?$12
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on$10
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 17?$8
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on$8
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 18?$8
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on July 19?$7
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 17?$7
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 18?$6
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 17?$6

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 1$-45
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 16?$-45
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 17?$-44
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 16?$-44
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 16?$-42
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 16?$-37
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 17?$-36
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F $-35
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 16?$-35
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 15?$-34

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.057
Sortino
6.842
HHI
22
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.358
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
0.7%
Top-5 markets
3.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
347.2
Very active
Markets / Day
125.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
9.7m
between trades
Night Trading
38%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.38
Moderate
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.2

Bot Detection

#6
90
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
MEDIUM
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 120s — typical for humanSize CV 0.38 — uniform orders38% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.18 — human randomness347 trades/day — automation125 markets/day — mass coverage443 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.6
Moderate DCA
<=1
309 entries
<=2
498 entries
<=5
685 entries
<=10
749 entries
<=20
758 entries
<=50
758 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.6%
Mid (20-55c)8.9%
High (>55c)89.5%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 0.2%

Buenos Aires$10
Manila$6
Mexico City$6
San Francisco$6
Helsinki$6
Wuhan$6
Denver$5
Sao Paulo$5
Houston$5
Busan$4
Chengdu$1
Taipei$1
Austin$1
Ankara$0
Chongqing$0
Atlanta$0
Warsaw$-0
Singapore$-10

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
6
Events covered
126

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
20 brackets
<=2
29 brackets
<=3
33 brackets
<=4
45 brackets
<=5
51 brackets
<=8
91 brackets
>8
35 brackets

Sessions

#12
7/12/2026, 5:12:19 AM5 trades$1710 min
7/12/2026, 6:13:43 AM2 trades$80 min
7/12/2026, 7:02:01 AM2 trades$50 min
7/12/2026, 8:06:02 AM1 trades$30 min
7/12/2026, 8:54:47 AM2 trades$80 min
7/12/2026, 10:39:40 AM4 trades$161 min
7/12/2026, 2:05:17 PM1 trades$30 min
7/12/2026, 6:16:52 PM1 trades$30 min
7/12/2026, 6:26:31 PM1 trades$40 min
7/13/2026, 1:39:50 AM2 trades$95 min
7/13/2026, 5:30:59 AM1 trades$30 min
7/13/2026, 8:30:40 AM2 trades$63 min
7/13/2026, 8:40:52 AM1 trades$50 min
7/13/2026, 9:41:55 AM1 trades$30 min
7/13/2026, 10:36:46 AM1 trades$30 min
7/13/2026, 2:00:32 PM1 trades$30 min
7/13/2026, 2:47:55 PM1 trades$20 min
7/13/2026, 5:00:46 PM1 trades$10 min
7/13/2026, 6:09:20 PM1 trades$10 min
7/13/2026, 6:50:37 PM2 trades$32 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-05
07-07
07-09
07-11
07-13
07-15
07-17
07-18
07-19

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
100% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
6.7% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.6/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 6 br/event