Polydata

@Imaginative-Recommendation

#2,285,01030

0xdfa6fb34a3baa5681d61d8543c3c3b850d2025af

242d· 65 markets · 138 tradesVol: $6,041 @hichman192026-07-07T03:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

30
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 51%10/20
Profit Factor 0.93x2/15
HHI 25710/10
Profit Days 62%8/10
DD/Peak 119%0/10

Summary

Imaginative-Recommendation is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 138 trades across 65 markets over 172 days. Ranked #2,285,010 globally, their net profit and loss stands at -$48.42, indicating a loss overall. Their total volume traded is $6,041, and despite a 54.1% win rate, their portfolio value currently reads zero. The trader’s smart score and bot score both rate at 30/100, suggesting below-average performance and a likely human operator.

This trader exhibits a contrarian style, as indicated by their badges, and tends to trade a variety of markets with a slight preference for weather-related events (6%). Their profit factor of 1.32 and sell percentage of 25% suggest moderate risk-taking with some willingness to exit positions early. The Sharpe ratio of -0.04 points to returns that have not compensated adequately for risk, and the lack of drawdown duration implies quick recoveries or flat equity periods rather than prolonged downturns.

Imaginative-Recommendation’s strengths lie in consistency and occasional win streaks, which may support steady trading habits. However, the overall downward equity trend and negative net PnL highlight challenges in sustaining profitability on Polymarket. The relatively low smart score and modest profit factor indicate potential difficulties in adapting strategy or market timing, which could pose risks if market conditions shift unfavorably.

Badges

3
Contrarian
53% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
9 wins in a row
Consistent
20/32 days

Categories

5
SPORTS#1,535,723$-46Vol: $4,550
📢 MENTIONS#81,349$-1Vol: $1,000
🌤️ WEATHER#220,817$-5Vol: $183
🏛️ POLITICS#720,598$-0Vol: $170
CRYPTO#953,471$-3Vol: $13

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-48
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$6,041
Total Redeem
$514
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
65
total markets
Trades
104B / 34S
Daily Volume
$10
Account Age
242d
since Nov 9, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-0
Vol: $0
Month
$-34
Vol: $131
All Time
$-48
Vol: $6,041

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
51%
32W / 31L events
Realized PnL
$143
Win Rate
54%
33W / 28L
Profit Factor
1.32x
Avg Win
$18
Avg Loss
$-17

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $177 (121.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-13?$89
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-14?$52
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-19?$37
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-01-25?$35
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo$28
Pistons vs. Spurs$24
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14?$21
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Karolina Muchova$20
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-21?$19
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-24?$19

Top Losers

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$-101
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-14?$-66
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-07?$-62
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-21?$-40
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Girona FC end in a draw?$-38
Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)$-26
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-11?$-23
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-16?$-19
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-15?$-16
Miami Open: Alexander Bublik vs Matteo Berrettini$-13

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.039
Sortino
-0.046
HHI
257
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.254
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.7%
Top-5 markets
23.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.4
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
14:00 UTC
Median Gap
16.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.6h
between trades
Night Trading
28%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.00
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 990s — typical for humanSize CV 1.00 — diverse, typical for human28% at night — bot never sleeps21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.54 — semi-mechanical

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 14:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.6
Single entry
<=1
43 entries
<=2
55 entries
<=5
64 entries
<=10
65 entries
<=20
65 entries
<=50
65 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4.8%
Mid (20-55c)55.8%
High (>55c)39.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 100%

Other$238
Madrid$19
Miami$-25
Paris$-86

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
63

Single bracket

<=1
62 brackets
<=2
62 brackets
<=3
63 brackets
<=4
63 brackets
<=5
63 brackets
<=8
63 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/13/2026, 1:45:57 PM1 trades$100 min
1/13/2026, 1:51:37 PM1 trades$110 min
1/13/2026, 2:10:45 PM2 trades$303 min
1/13/2026, 3:13:49 PM1 trades$240 min
1/13/2026, 3:41:57 PM2 trades$515 min
1/13/2026, 11:15:38 PM1 trades$1480 min
1/13/2026, 11:34:42 PM1 trades$270 min
1/13/2026, 11:46:30 PM2 trades$192 min
1/14/2026, 1:07:06 AM1 trades$200 min
1/14/2026, 2:45:38 AM1 trades$210 min
1/14/2026, 2:13:38 PM1 trades$110 min
1/14/2026, 5:24:10 PM1 trades$100 min
1/14/2026, 7:15:18 PM1 trades$820 min
1/14/2026, 11:25:48 PM1 trades$930 min
1/15/2026, 4:44:14 AM4 trades$866 min
1/15/2026, 10:57:24 PM1 trades$50 min
1/16/2026, 1:46:52 AM1 trades$40 min
1/16/2026, 6:23:04 AM5 trades$764 min
1/16/2026, 4:25:36 PM1 trades$200 min
1/16/2026, 4:30:40 PM1 trades$70 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-13
01-21
02-08
03-07
03-27
04-25
07-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
6.2% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
24.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event