Polydata
Impish-Larder

@Impish-Larder

#2,496,95861

0x18bb920edd82098904fc15dd49b63bd9b57f1d00

90d· 1002 markets · 884 tradesVol: $16,839 @fatsergey2026-05-23T21:41
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

61
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 56%13/20
Profit Factor 19.53x15/15
Sharpe 0.1182/15
Sortino 0.1241/10
EV $+0.29110/10
HHI 12310/10
Profit Days 61%8/10
DD/Peak 60%2/10

Summary

Impish-Larder is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having completed 884 trades across 729 markets over 84 days. Despite a high win rate of 99.4%, their net PnL stands at a negative $299.86, placing them at rank #2,496,958 on the global leaderboard. Their total trading volume is $16,839, and their portfolio value is currently zero, indicating no open positions. The trader’s Smart Score is a solid 61/100, suggesting good trading discipline and consistency.

The trading style of Impish-Larder appears focused on high-frequency, low-risk bets with a very low sell percentage of just 7%. They avoid weather markets entirely and maintain a flat equity trend, reflecting a conservative approach. The high profit factor of 19.53 and a Sharpe ratio of 0.12 indicate minimal volatility in returns but also limited profitability. Their quick interface use and low Bot Score imply manual trading, with a steady pace rather than aggressive timing or trend chasing.

Impish-Larder’s strengths lie in consistent execution, demonstrated by a strong win streak and diamond hands badges, reflecting disciplined holding and reliable outcomes. However, their net losses and zero portfolio suggest limited capital growth, posing a risk of stagnation. The flat equity trend and low risk profile could prevent significant drawdowns but also cap upside potential. Overall, Impish-Larder shows promise on Polymarket but may need strategy adjustments for profitable scaling.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Diamond Hands
7% sell
Win Streak
271 wins in a row
Consistent
17/28 days

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,428,175$-297Vol: $16,214
🏛️ POLITICS#1,018,317$-3Vol: $625

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-300
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$16,839
Total Redeem
$3,636
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1002
total markets
Trades
826B / 58S
Daily Volume
$49
Account Age
90d
since Feb 22, 2026

Periods

#2
Month
$-3
Vol: $24
All Time
$-300
Vol: $16,839

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
55%
250W / 201L events
Realized PnL
$903
Win Rate
99%
459W / 3L
Profit Factor
19.53x
Avg Win
$2
Avg Loss
$-16

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $38 (4.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$17
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$11
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$10

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$-41
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.118
Sortino
0.124
HHI
123
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.291
Kelly %
97.8%
Half-Kelly
48.9%
Top-1 market
5.8%
Top-5 markets
18%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
10.5
Active
Markets / Day
8.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
36.1m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.97
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 392s — typical for humanSize CV 2.97 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.89 — human randomness11 trades/day — very active452 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
663 entries
<=2
714 entries
<=5
728 entries
<=10
728 entries
<=20
729 entries
<=50
729 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.7%
Mid (20-55c)56.9%
High (>55c)42.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 55.6%

Other$871

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
729

Single bracket

<=1
729 brackets
<=2
729 brackets
<=3
729 brackets
<=4
729 brackets
<=5
729 brackets
<=8
729 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/22/2026, 10:15:52 AM1 trades$10 min
2/22/2026, 10:30:12 AM4 trades$201 min
2/22/2026, 11:05:12 AM3 trades$73 min
2/22/2026, 11:27:20 AM6 trades$275 min
2/22/2026, 1:06:08 PM1 trades$100 min
2/22/2026, 1:18:24 PM1 trades$100 min
2/22/2026, 1:56:06 PM2 trades$112 min
2/22/2026, 2:16:08 PM2 trades$122 min
2/22/2026, 2:46:52 PM2 trades$253 min
2/22/2026, 2:56:22 PM2 trades$253 min
2/22/2026, 3:17:54 PM1 trades$100 min
2/22/2026, 3:42:22 PM3 trades$201 min
2/22/2026, 3:51:16 PM1 trades$100 min
2/22/2026, 4:06:04 PM2 trades$254 min
2/22/2026, 4:21:10 PM2 trades$151 min
2/22/2026, 6:56:06 PM1 trades$20 min
2/22/2026, 7:06:10 PM1 trades$20 min
2/22/2026, 7:31:06 PM2 trades$45 min
2/22/2026, 7:46:08 PM2 trades$45 min
2/22/2026, 8:01:08 PM2 trades$45 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-22
02-27
03-03
03-08
03-12
03-27
03-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
6.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event