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Impish-Larder

@Impish-Larder

#2,674,43461

0x18bb920edd82098904fc15dd49b63bd9b57f1d00

135d· 1002 markets · 884 tradesVol: $16,839 @fatsergey2026-07-01T12:43
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

61
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 56%13/20
Profit Factor 20.02x15/15
Sharpe 0.1182/15
Sortino 0.1241/10
EV $+0.29610/10
HHI 12410/10
Profit Days 61%8/10
DD/Peak 60%2/10

Summary

Impish-Larder is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 884 trades across 729 markets over 84 days. Despite a high volume of $16,839 traded, the trader currently holds a net PnL of -$299.86 and ranks #2,674,434 globally. Their smart score of 61/100 indicates generally good performance, while the portfolio value stands at zero. Impish-Larder maintains a steady equity trend and exhibits a low Sharpe ratio of 0.12, reflecting limited risk-adjusted returns.

The trader’s style is characterized by a very high win rate of 99.4% and a profit factor of 20.02, suggesting frequent small wins rather than large profits. Impish-Larder rarely sells positions, with only 7% sell percentage, and does not engage in weather markets. This pattern, combined with a max drawdown duration of zero days, points to a low-risk, conservative approach focused on stability and consistency rather than aggressive speculation. Trading appears to be human-driven given a bot score of 30/100.

Impish-Larder’s key strengths include consistent execution and excellent risk control, as evidenced by diamond hands and a strong win streak. However, the negative net PnL and flat equity trend highlight challenges in turning frequent wins into overall profitability. The low Sharpe ratio also suggests limited returns relative to risk taken. For Polymarket traders, Impish-Larder’s approach offers lessons in consistency but also underscores the importance of capturing meaningful gains.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

3
Diamond Hands
7% sell
Win Streak
271 wins in a row
Consistent
17/28 days

Categories

2
CRYPTO#1,509,150$-297Vol: $16,214
🏛️ POLITICS#1,044,093$-3Vol: $625

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-300
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$16,839
Total Redeem
$3,636
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1002
total markets
Trades
826B / 58S
Daily Volume
$49
Account Age
135d
since Feb 22, 2026

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
55%
250W / 201L events
Realized PnL
$903
Win Rate
99%
459W / 3L
Profit Factor
20.02x
Avg Win
$2
Avg Loss
$-15

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $39 (4.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$17
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$11
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$10

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$-40
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.118
Sortino
0.124
HHI
124
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.295
Kelly %
97.8%
Half-Kelly
48.9%
Top-1 market
5.9%
Top-5 markets
18.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
10.5
Active
Markets / Day
8.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
36.1m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.98
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 392s — typical for humanSize CV 2.98 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.89 — human randomness11 trades/day — very active452 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
663 entries
<=2
714 entries
<=5
728 entries
<=10
728 entries
<=20
729 entries
<=50
729 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.7%
Mid (20-55c)56.9%
High (>55c)42.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 55.7%

Other$881

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
729

Single bracket

<=1
729 brackets
<=2
729 brackets
<=3
729 brackets
<=4
729 brackets
<=5
729 brackets
<=8
729 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/22/2026, 10:15:52 AM1 trades$10 min
2/22/2026, 10:30:12 AM4 trades$201 min
2/22/2026, 11:05:12 AM3 trades$73 min
2/22/2026, 11:27:20 AM6 trades$275 min
2/22/2026, 1:06:08 PM1 trades$100 min
2/22/2026, 1:18:24 PM1 trades$100 min
2/22/2026, 1:56:06 PM2 trades$112 min
2/22/2026, 2:16:08 PM2 trades$112 min
2/22/2026, 2:46:52 PM2 trades$243 min
2/22/2026, 2:56:22 PM2 trades$253 min
2/22/2026, 3:17:54 PM1 trades$100 min
2/22/2026, 3:42:22 PM3 trades$201 min
2/22/2026, 3:51:16 PM1 trades$100 min
2/22/2026, 4:06:04 PM2 trades$254 min
2/22/2026, 4:21:10 PM2 trades$151 min
2/22/2026, 6:56:06 PM1 trades$20 min
2/22/2026, 7:06:10 PM1 trades$20 min
2/22/2026, 7:31:06 PM2 trades$45 min
2/22/2026, 7:46:08 PM2 trades$45 min
2/22/2026, 8:01:08 PM2 trades$45 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-22
02-27
03-03
03-08
03-12
03-27
03-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
6.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event