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@Impossible-Thunderstorm

#2,134,17617

0x48ec8d76811137d51ed704bbc0f4bc9fbeb4fdb6

502d· 76 markets · 116 tradesVol: $10,585 @Shubham515325222026-06-21T12:20
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

17
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 38%4/20
Profit Factor 0.72x0/15
HHI 22310/10
Profit Days 42%3/10
DD/Peak 665%0/10

Summary

Impossible-Thunderstorm is a relatively inactive trader on Polymarket, with 116 trades spread over 218 days and a total volume of $10,585. Their net PnL currently stands at -$34.49, placing them at rank #2,134,176 on the global leaderboard. The trader’s portfolio value has declined to $63.14, and their Smart Score of 17/100 indicates a beginner level of trading proficiency.

This trader engages in a diverse range of markets, having traded 76 different ones, but shows no preference for weather markets. Impossible-Thunderstorm exhibits a moderately conservative risk profile, reflected in a 29% sell rate and a 59.6% win rate with a profit factor of 2.70. However, the negative Sharpe ratio of -0.15 suggests that returns are not adequately compensating for risk. Their trading style appears to be manual and contrarian, supported by badges such as Contrarian and Win Streak, with no significant drawdown duration, indicating potentially quick position adjustments.

The strengths of Impossible-Thunderstorm include a solid win rate and a profit factor that suggests winning trades outweigh losses. Yet, the overall downward equity trend and negative PnL raise concerns about consistency and portfolio management. As a beginner with a low Smart Score and Bot Score, the trader may face challenges in optimizing strategy on Polymarket, especially in volatile markets or over extended periods.

Badges

2
Contrarian
62% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
6 wins in a row

Categories

3
⚽ SPORTS#1,416,562$-27Vol: $8,461
₿ CRYPTO#863,257$-1Vol: $1,525
🎭 CULTURE#641,236$-6Vol: $598

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-34
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$10,585
Total Redeem
$2,132
Portfolio
$63
Predictions
76
total markets
Trades
82B / 34S
Daily Volume
$13
Account Age
502d
since Feb 24, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-41
Vol: $263
Week
$16
Vol: $263
Month
$47
Vol: $2,933
All Time
$-34
Vol: $10,585

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
40%
26W / 39L events
Realized PnL
$407
Win Rate
60%
31W / 21L
Profit Factor
2.7x
Avg Win
$36
Avg Loss
$-20

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $283 (40.7% of PnL)

Top Winners

Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals$110
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco?$87
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia$86
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India$81
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?$81
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals$76
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings$56
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?$54
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants$52
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27?$44

Top Losers

WPL: Gujarat Giants Women vs Delhi Capitals Women$-60
International ODI: Sri Lanka vs England (Game 3)$-55
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Tit$-53
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers B$-45
WPL: Royal Challengers Bengaluru Women vs Mumbai Indians Women$-43
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians$-33
WPL: Gujarat Giants Women vs UP Warriorz Women$-27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$-18
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw?$-13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$-10

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.151
Sortino
-0.219
HHI
223
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.407
Kelly %
29.6%
Half-Kelly
14.8%
Top-1 market
4.6%
Top-5 markets
19.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.5
Active Hours
20/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
34.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.9h
between trades
Night Trading
6%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.78
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 2060s — typical for humanSize CV 0.78 — diverse, typical for human6% at night — normal sleep pattern20/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.68 — semi-mechanical

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
72 entries
<=2
74 entries
<=5
76 entries
<=10
76 entries
<=20
76 entries
<=50
76 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)24.4%
Mid (20-55c)52.4%
High (>55c)23.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 60.4%

Other$512
Lucknow$184
Paris$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
69

Single bracket

<=1
66 brackets
<=2
68 brackets
<=3
68 brackets
<=4
68 brackets
<=5
68 brackets
<=8
69 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/18/2026, 3:33:54 PM1 trades$200 min
1/18/2026, 3:43:14 PM2 trades$272 min
1/22/2026, 4:18:36 PM1 trades$270 min
1/23/2026, 1:39:06 PM1 trades$500 min
1/23/2026, 4:22:18 PM1 trades$680 min
1/25/2026, 3:46:16 PM1 trades$680 min
1/26/2026, 1:49:49 PM1 trades$430 min
1/26/2026, 7:28:51 PM2 trades$1061 min
1/27/2026, 10:08:07 AM1 trades$550 min
1/27/2026, 2:59:11 PM1 trades$300 min
1/27/2026, 3:17:25 PM1 trades$500 min
1/27/2026, 3:36:13 PM1 trades$670 min
1/27/2026, 4:45:05 PM2 trades$942 min
1/27/2026, 4:54:35 PM3 trades$638 min
1/27/2026, 5:34:37 PM1 trades$500 min
1/27/2026, 6:08:47 PM1 trades$500 min
1/27/2026, 7:16:09 PM1 trades$640 min
1/28/2026, 12:44:01 PM1 trades$640 min
1/30/2026, 10:30:44 AM1 trades$600 min
4/21/2026, 7:28:38 PM1 trades$1090 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-25
02-03
05-18
05-26
06-03
06-13
06-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
29.3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event