Polydata

@Impossible-Thunderstorm

#2,030,41631

0x48ec8d76811137d51ed704bbc0f4bc9fbeb4fdb6

451d· 29 markets · 52 tradesVol: $4,532 @Shubham515325222026-05-21T17:51
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

31
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 53%12/20
Profit Factor 0.92x2/15
HHI 58010/10
Profit Days 61%8/10
DD/Peak 644%0/10

Summary

Impossible-Thunderstorm is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 52 trades across 29 markets over 218 days. Despite a net loss of $33.79 and a global PnL rank of #2,030,416, the trader maintains a total trading volume of $4,532. Their Smart Score is below average at 31/100, reflecting some challenges in overall profitability and risk-adjusted returns.

This trader shows a preference for diverse markets rather than specializing in weather-related questions, as none of their trades involve weather markets. Impossible-Thunderstorm exhibits a moderate risk profile, indicated by a 57.7% win rate and a profit factor of 1.58, suggesting they win more often than they lose and generate more profit on winning trades. Their sell percentage of 35% implies a balanced approach between holding and exiting positions, and their equity trend shows gradual growth despite a negative Sharpe ratio, pointing to some inconsistency in returns.

The key strength of Impossible-Thunderstorm lies in their consistent trading behavior, as highlighted by their top badge. However, their overall negative net PnL and below-average risk metrics pose concerns about the effectiveness of their strategy in the current market environment. The lack of bot usage confirms manual trading, which may limit scalability but allows for adaptive decision-making on Polymarket.

Badges

1
Consistent
11/18 days

Categories

3
SPORTS#1,371,457$-31Vol: $3,474
🎭 CULTURE#629,288$-6Vol: $598
CRYPTO#311,489$3Vol: $460

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-34
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,532
Total Redeem
$707
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
29
total markets
Trades
34B / 18S
Daily Volume
$6
Account Age
451d
since Feb 24, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$126
Vol: $1,853
Month
$125
Vol: $1,853
All Time
$-34
Vol: $4,532

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
52%
15W / 14L events
Realized PnL
$142
Win Rate
58%
15W / 11L
Profit Factor
1.58x
Avg Win
$26
Avg Loss
$-22

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $168 (119% of PnL)

Top Winners

Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals$76
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants$52
WPL: UP Warriorz Women vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Women$41
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?$39
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad$35
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5$27
SA20: Pretoria Capitals vs Sunrisers Eastern Cape (Game Final)$25
International T20 Series: South Africa vs West Indies (Game 1)$24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$20
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 2)$18

Top Losers

WPL: Gujarat Giants Women vs Delhi Capitals Women$-60
International ODI: Sri Lanka vs England (Game 3)$-55
WPL: Royal Challengers Bengaluru Women vs Mumbai Indians Women$-43
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians$-33
WPL: Gujarat Giants Women vs UP Warriorz Women$-27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$-10
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and $-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.035
Sortino
-0.049
HHI
580
Moderate
EV per $1
$-0.184
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
10.2%
Top-5 markets
42.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
13/24
Extended
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
27.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.8h
between trades
Night Trading
0%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.72
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
41
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

4 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 1622s — typical for humanSize CV 0.72 — diverse, typical for human0% at night — normal sleep pattern13/24 hours — normal hours

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
26 entries
<=2
27 entries
<=5
29 entries
<=10
29 entries
<=20
29 entries
<=50
29 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)20.6%
Mid (20-55c)35.3%
High (>55c)44.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 47.6%

Lucknow$127
Other$14

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
29

Single bracket

<=1
29 brackets
<=2
29 brackets
<=3
29 brackets
<=4
29 brackets
<=5
29 brackets
<=8
29 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/18/2026, 3:33:54 PM1 trades$200 min
1/18/2026, 3:43:14 PM2 trades$272 min
1/22/2026, 4:18:36 PM1 trades$270 min
1/23/2026, 1:39:06 PM1 trades$500 min
1/23/2026, 4:22:18 PM1 trades$680 min
1/25/2026, 3:46:16 PM1 trades$680 min
1/26/2026, 1:49:49 PM1 trades$430 min
1/26/2026, 7:28:51 PM2 trades$1061 min
1/27/2026, 10:08:07 AM1 trades$550 min
1/27/2026, 2:59:11 PM1 trades$300 min
1/27/2026, 3:17:25 PM1 trades$500 min
1/27/2026, 3:36:13 PM1 trades$670 min
1/27/2026, 4:45:05 PM2 trades$942 min
1/27/2026, 4:54:35 PM3 trades$638 min
1/27/2026, 5:34:37 PM1 trades$500 min
1/27/2026, 6:08:47 PM1 trades$500 min
1/27/2026, 7:16:09 PM1 trades$640 min
1/28/2026, 12:44:01 PM1 trades$640 min
1/30/2026, 10:30:44 AM1 trades$600 min
4/21/2026, 7:28:38 PM1 trades$1090 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-25
01-30
02-03
04-29
05-18
05-26

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
34.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event