Polydata
Improbable-Cormorant

@Improbable-Cormorant

#17,12494

0xb8076edb7c0de95bb53b5cb6e2bffa5afd7f99cb

797d· 637 markets · 20195 tradesVol: $11,194,123 @MarketCatX2026-07-25T15:18
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

94
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 94%20/20
Profit Factor 18.11x15/15
Sharpe 0.5039/15
Sortino 0.96910/10
EV $+5.34810/10
HHI 23010/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Improbable-Cormorant is an experienced and active trader on Polymarket, ranked #17124 on the global PnL leaderboard. With a net profit of $8,179.52 and a total trading volume exceeding $11 million across 20,195 trades, this trader has maintained consistent activity over 929 days. Their portfolio value currently stands at $2,041.24, supported by a solid win rate of 79.7% and a profit factor of 1.77, reflecting effective trade selection.

This trader favors a diversified approach, engaging in 266 different markets without a specific focus on weather-related markets. Improbable-Cormorant exhibits a moderate risk profile, indicated by a Sharpe ratio of 0.50 and zero days of max drawdown duration, suggesting disciplined risk management. Their trading style mixes short-term precision, as denoted by the “Sniper” badge, with elements of dollar-cost averaging and contrarian bets, supporting a balanced timing strategy. The 32% sell rate implies a willingness to take profits or cut losses actively.

Key strengths of Improbable-Cormorant include consistent profitability, a high win rate, and an upward equity trend, underscoring strong market adaptability on Polymarket. Potential concerns involve the moderate Sharpe ratio, which points to some volatility in returns, and the relatively low Bot Score, suggesting manual trading that may limit scalability. Overall, the trader’s disciplined strategy and diverse market engagement contribute to sustained performance.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 94%
Profitable
PnL $+8,180
Lottery Player
93% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
97% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 51.7 entries/market
Win Streak
26 wins in a row
Whale
$147,975
Consistent
55/57 days
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

8
💰 FINANCE#1,754$2,852Vol: $4,820,914
CRYPTO#10,762$4,425Vol: $4,552,039
🏛️ POLITICS#20,974$776Vol: $1,039,271
🎭 CULTURE#751,122$-42Vol: $427,036
📈 ECONOMICS#644,121$-54Vol: $163,047
SPORTS#78,264$256Vol: $159,791
🌤️ WEATHER#256,598$-18Vol: $23,999
💻 TECH#230,681$-17Vol: $7,000

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$8,180
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$11,194,123
Total Redeem
$1,000
Portfolio
$2,041
Predictions
637
total markets
Trades
13759B / 6436S
Daily Volume
$159
Account Age
797d
since May 19, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$28
Vol: $9,253
Week
$76
Vol: $147,977
Month
$-233
Vol: $719,002
All Time
$8,180
Vol: $11,194,123

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
96%
116W / 5L events
Realized PnL
$17,217
Win Rate
80%
185W / 46L
Profit Factor
1.77x
Avg Win
$91
Avg Loss
$-206

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $3,741 (51.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Ethereum all time high in 2024?$1,469
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$1,257
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$1,015
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven$1,015
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024?$995
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$831
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?$554
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?$475
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?$440
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? $286

Top Losers

No airdrop in 2025?$-1,664
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?$-1,432
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?$-953
Will Paradex launch a token on March 4?$-487
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?$-484
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 27?$-482
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?$-410
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch?$-395
No Ethereum all time high in 2024?$-379
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes?$-369

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.503
Sortino
0.969
HHI
230
Diversified
EV per $1
$5.348
Kelly %
57.0%
Half-Kelly
28.5%
Top-1 market
6.2%
Top-5 markets
25.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
25.9
Active
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
2.9m
between trades
Avg Gap
32.7m
between trades
Night Trading
15%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.14
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 172s — typical for humanSize CV 5.14 — diverse, typical for human15% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.95 — human randomness26 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
51.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
38 entries
<=2
55 entries
<=5
99 entries
<=10
137 entries
<=20
181 entries
<=50
213 entries
>50
53 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)92.7%
Mid (20-55c)4.3%
High (>55c)3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 65%

Other$7,804
Up or Down$-482

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.1
Events covered
126

Moderate coverage

<=1
65 brackets
<=2
92 brackets
<=3
108 brackets
<=4
116 brackets
<=5
121 brackets
<=8
125 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
6/4/2024, 1:23:09 PM2 trades$1400 min
6/4/2024, 7:10:44 PM1 trades$1600 min
6/5/2024, 1:44:53 PM1 trades$1520 min
6/5/2024, 2:48:51 PM1 trades$120 min
6/5/2024, 9:25:31 PM1 trades$1430 min
6/6/2024, 1:13:30 PM1 trades$40 min
6/6/2024, 3:13:05 PM1 trades$1100 min
6/6/2024, 3:21:31 PM1 trades$200 min
6/6/2024, 4:16:53 PM1 trades$1320 min
6/6/2024, 6:33:02 PM1 trades$2880 min
6/6/2024, 8:45:41 PM3 trades$355 min
6/6/2024, 11:55:00 PM1 trades$1380 min
6/7/2024, 12:10:08 AM1 trades$1360 min
6/7/2024, 7:55:22 AM1 trades$50 min
6/7/2024, 9:31:49 AM1 trades$890 min
6/7/2024, 2:56:26 PM1 trades$200 min
6/8/2024, 12:13:26 AM1 trades$1910 min
6/8/2024, 5:33:55 AM1 trades$180 min
6/8/2024, 8:00:41 AM1 trades$1400 min
6/8/2024, 4:13:59 PM1 trades$510 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
09-30
11-01
03-02
03-22
06-30
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
31.9% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 51.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.1 br/event