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Improbable-Responsibility

@Improbable-Responsibility

#1,35896

0x7ac83882979ccb5665cea83cb269e558b55077cd

737d· 2202 markets · 7370 tradesVol: $4,355,456 @nicoco89poly2026-06-21T21:37
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 82%20/20
Profit Factor 17.74x15/15
Sharpe 0.57211/15
Sortino 4.74910/10
EV $+1.96410/10
HHI 14410/10
Profit Days 91%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Improbable-Responsibility is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1358 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $125,636.42. Over 1006 days, they executed 7,370 trades across 316 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $4.3 million. Their portfolio value currently stands at $72,306.99, supported by a strong Smart Score of 96/100, indicating elite trading proficiency.

The trader’s style on Polymarket appears diversified but with a low win rate of 34.6% and a profit factor of 0.14, suggesting a high-risk, high-reward approach. Improbable-Responsibility trades frequently and maintains a stable equity trend with a Sharpe ratio of 0.57, reflecting moderate risk-adjusted returns. Their sell percentage of 32% and a bot score of 45/100 imply a hybrid manual and algorithmic trading strategy, balancing automated execution with discretionary decisions. Notably, the trader avoids weather markets and is tagged with badges like Sniper and Contrarian, highlighting a preference for opportunistic, sometimes contrarian positions.

Key strengths for Improbable-Responsibility include consistent activity, a large trade volume, and resilience reflected by zero days of max drawdown duration. However, the low profit factor and modest Sharpe ratio point to potential vulnerability in sustained profitability. The relatively flat equity trend suggests limited growth recently, which may concern traders seeking upward momentum. Overall, Improbable-Responsibility demonstrates elite skill on Polymarket but faces challenges in balancing risk and reward effectively.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 82%
Profitable
PnL $+125,636
Lottery Player
39% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
53% entries <$0.50
Whale
$177,191
Consistent
106/116 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#446$112,089Vol: $3,737,493
📈 ECONOMICS#1,426$2,699Vol: $139,265
🎭 CULTURE#2,662$2,390Vol: $132,226
📢 MENTIONS#469$3,588Vol: $97,291
SPORTS#30,949$1,160Vol: $74,883
CRYPTO#27,344$1,125Vol: $57,513
🌤️ WEATHER#1,143$1,330Vol: $52,251
💰 FINANCE#4,775$777Vol: $45,991
💻 TECH#225,382$-39Vol: $405

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$125,636
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,355,456
Total Redeem
$71
Portfolio
$72,307
Predictions
2202
total markets
Trades
5005B / 2365S
Daily Volume
$176
Account Age
737d
since Jun 19, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$133
Vol: $5,033
Week
$-460
Vol: $5,033
Month
$1,176
Vol: $146,294
All Time
$125,636
Vol: $4,355,456

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
87%
279W / 43L events
Realized PnL
$130,789
Win Rate
35%
9W / 17L
Profit Factor
0.14x
Avg Win
$366
Avg Loss
$-1,421

Top Winners

Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine$968
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$607
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in$438
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?$413
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?$357
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?$275
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?$225
Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican pri$10
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$2

Top Losers

Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary el$-8,559
Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02?$-4,098
Will Juliette Chesnel-Leroux win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?$-3,126
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primar$-1,344
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-01 House seat?$-1,144
Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be$-967
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-03 House seat?$-904
Will Antonio Delgado win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatori$-863
Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic prim$-805
Will Ashley B. Moody be the Republican nominee for Senate in Flor$-657

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.572
Sortino
4.749
HHI
144
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.964
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
4.8%
Top-5 markets
17.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
21.3
Active
Markets / Day
0.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
0:00 UTC
Median Gap
3.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
58.3m
between trades
Night Trading
25%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.89
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.1

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 200s — typical for humanSize CV 4.89 — diverse, typical for human25% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.03 — human randomness21 trades/day — suspiciously high515 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 0:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
15.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
74 entries
<=2
119 entries
<=5
197 entries
<=10
245 entries
<=20
276 entries
<=50
294 entries
>50
22 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)38.9%
Mid (20-55c)15.1%
High (>55c)46%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 58.7%

Netanyahu$0
Los Angeles$0
Toronto$0
Other$-20,862

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
210

Single bracket

<=1
144 brackets
<=2
191 brackets
<=3
203 brackets
<=4
207 brackets
<=5
207 brackets
<=8
209 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
7/11/2025, 2:43:00 AM1 trades$2700 min
7/11/2025, 8:27:08 PM1 trades$240 min
7/18/2025, 9:49:17 PM1 trades$270 min
7/25/2025, 12:21:26 AM1 trades$50 min
7/25/2025, 12:29:10 AM1 trades$50 min
8/3/2025, 10:13:51 PM1 trades$4030 min
8/4/2025, 1:28:09 PM1 trades$4200 min
8/5/2025, 4:42:37 PM1 trades$60 min
8/11/2025, 6:58:52 AM1 trades$20 min
8/11/2025, 8:43:52 AM1 trades$200 min
8/11/2025, 2:03:16 PM1 trades$390 min
8/13/2025, 1:11:19 PM1 trades$880 min
8/13/2025, 4:23:01 PM1 trades$10 min
8/15/2025, 10:01:42 AM1 trades$170 min
8/18/2025, 6:35:40 AM1 trades$150 min
8/19/2025, 11:59:32 AM1 trades$730 min
8/19/2025, 6:19:37 PM1 trades$90 min
8/23/2025, 11:29:59 AM1 trades$1530 min
8/23/2025, 12:13:17 PM1 trades$10 min
8/23/2025, 12:28:23 PM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
04-06
09-15
01-15
06-08
06-27
09-01
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
32.1% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 15.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event