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@Inferior-Grain

#2,97180

0x2f633efb75256a2f2445110c8978684ab8936643

534d· 904 markets · 1507 tradesVol: $832,3752026-06-24T08:22
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

80
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 4.54x15/15
Sharpe 0.3677/15
Sortino 0.1652/10
EV $+0.1317/10
HHI 6410/10
Profit Days 95%10/10
DD/Peak 11%10/10

Summary

Inferior-Grain is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 1,507 trades executed across 617 markets over 579 days. Ranking #2971 globally by net profit and boasting a net PnL of $54,870.61, Inferior-Grain maintains a stable portfolio value around $5,575. Their total trading volume exceeds $832,000, reflecting sustained engagement in the market. The trader’s Smart Score of 80 indicates a very good overall performance relative to peers.

Inferior-Grain favors a diversified market approach, engaging in a wide range of topics without exposure to weather markets. Their trading style is characterized by a high win rate of 97.5% and a profit factor of 4.54, suggesting disciplined risk management and selective entries. The low sell percentage (16%) and zero days of max drawdown duration imply timely exits and minimal prolonged losses. Trading activity appears consistent with no significant equity fluctuations, indicating a cautious, steady strategy rather than aggressive speculation.

The strengths of Inferior-Grain include exceptional consistency and precision, earning badges such as Sniper and Consistent. Their low drawdown duration and positive profit factor reduce risk exposure, enhancing long-term viability. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio of 0.37 may signal modest risk-adjusted returns, and the flat equity trend suggests limited portfolio growth potential. Overall, Inferior-Grain’s performance on Polymarket reflects a reliable, low-volatility trading approach with strong execution but potential constraints on scaling profits.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Profitable
PnL $+54,871
Win Streak
331 wins in a row
Whale
$425,750
Consistent
167/176 days
Cool Head
DD 11%

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#4,875$7,119Vol: $381,906
💰 FINANCE#107$32,541Vol: $238,884
📈 ECONOMICS#392$16,210Vol: $181,876
💻 TECH#239,547$-582Vol: $18,494
🎭 CULTURE#786,783$-367Vol: $10,143
🌤️ WEATHER#206,953$-3Vol: $500
📢 MENTIONS#148,446$-48Vol: $431
CRYPTO#525,023$0Vol: $141

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$54,871
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$832,375
Total Redeem
$421,987
Portfolio
$5,575
Predictions
904
total markets
Trades
1267B / 240S
Daily Volume
$735
Account Age
534d
since Jan 12, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$7
Vol: $0
Week
$21
Vol: $2,569
Month
$770
Vol: $30,408
All Time
$54,871
Vol: $832,375

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
202W / 5L events
Realized PnL
$75,293
Win Rate
98%
584W / 15L
Profit Factor
4.54x
Avg Win
$120
Avg Loss
$-1,034

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $9,905 (18.1% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?$3,583
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April $3,485
Will Capital One (COF) beat quarterly earnings?$2,838
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the Apr$2,100
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April $1,653
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$1,537
Will Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) beat quarterly earnings?$1,499
Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?$1,439
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be bet$1,338
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in November?$1,311

Top Losers

Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-$-4,244
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Str$-3,698
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-Ma$-2,397
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Stra$-2,273
Trump ends taxes on tips before August?$-749
Will Draftkings (DKNG) beat quarterly earnings?$-733
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?$-431
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?$-386
Will Trump visit China by May 31?$-221
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?$-129

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.367
Sortino
0.165
HHI
64
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.131
Kelly %
92.5%
Half-Kelly
46.2%
Top-1 market
2.3%
Top-5 markets
10.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
21:00 UTC
Median Gap
15.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.3h
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.23
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 898s — typical for humanSize CV 2.23 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.82 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 21:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.1
Moderate DCA
<=1
453 entries
<=2
542 entries
<=5
582 entries
<=10
598 entries
<=20
611 entries
<=50
617 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)4%
Mid (20-55c)12.8%
High (>55c)83.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 60.9%

Other$54,828
Chicago$15
New York City$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
503

Single bracket

<=1
431 brackets
<=2
472 brackets
<=3
494 brackets
<=4
501 brackets
<=5
503 brackets
<=8
503 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
5/21/2025, 12:12:25 AM1 trades$690 min
5/22/2025, 11:48:00 PM1 trades$30 min
5/25/2025, 8:27:06 PM1 trades$150 min
5/26/2025, 5:48:38 AM1 trades$540 min
5/26/2025, 9:00:46 AM1 trades$230 min
5/28/2025, 11:54:08 PM1 trades$140 min
5/29/2025, 2:58:56 AM1 trades$730 min
6/1/2025, 4:17:15 PM1 trades$320 min
6/28/2025, 8:51:09 PM2 trades$341 min
6/28/2025, 9:19:31 PM1 trades$420 min
7/1/2025, 3:53:31 PM1 trades$240 min
7/1/2025, 5:12:25 PM1 trades$160 min
7/1/2025, 6:14:43 PM1 trades$160 min
7/1/2025, 9:34:36 PM1 trades$420 min
7/1/2025, 9:40:16 PM1 trades$1900 min
7/2/2025, 11:52:08 PM1 trades$1320 min
7/3/2025, 10:31:03 PM2 trades$460 min
7/3/2025, 10:36:29 PM1 trades$410 min
7/3/2025, 10:41:55 PM1 trades$30 min
7/3/2025, 11:47:27 PM1 trades$380 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-04
10-24
12-19
02-17
03-30
05-07
06-30
09-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
15.9% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event