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Informal-Bend

@Informal-Bend

#10395

0xd1acd3925d895de9aec98ff95f3a30c5279d08d5

1690d· 1315 markets · 14223 tradesVol: $68,241,6702026-06-27T08:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 83%20/20
Profit Factor 31.69x15/15
Sharpe 0.55210/15
Sortino 6.01810/10
EV $+10.58710/10
HHI 19810/10
Profit Days 86%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Informal-Bend is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #103 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $1,458,210.07. Over 1514 days, they executed 14,223 trades across 246 markets, accumulating a total trading volume exceeding $68 million. Despite a relatively modest Sharpe ratio of 0.55, Informal-Bend maintains a stable portfolio value around $192,579, demonstrating consistent engagement in the platform.

The trading style of Informal-Bend reflects a preference for volume and breadth rather than a high win rate, which stands at 23.4%. Their profit factor is low at 0.05, suggesting that the trader may rely on large positions or occasional big wins rather than frequent small gains. The sell percentage is 29%, indicating a moderate level of position turnover. Informal-Bend does not trade weather markets and shows no significant max drawdown duration, suggesting disciplined risk management over time. The bot score of 35 implies a likely human trader employing a fast interface.

Informal-Bend’s strengths lie in their elite Smart Score of 95 and badges such as Sniper and Profitable, highlighting precision and consistent profitability. Their extensive market coverage and high volume trading support a diversified approach. However, the low profit factor and win rate could indicate susceptibility to periods of underperformance or reliance on specific market conditions. Maintaining equity stability with a flat trend reduces concern over large drawdowns, but the data suggests Informal-Bend’s strategy may require careful monitoring for risk exposure in volatile environments.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 83%
Profitable
PnL $+1,458,210
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
Whale
$18,648,160
Consistent
137/159 days
High Roller
$12,317/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#47$766,309Vol: $35,074,604
📈 ECONOMICS#20$231,588Vol: $14,299,088
🎭 CULTURE#29$139,320Vol: $4,783,322
💻 TECH#26$38,933Vol: $4,339,779
SPORTS#620$113,258Vol: $4,193,698
CRYPTO#2,391$18,092Vol: $2,431,749
📢 MENTIONS#365$4,637Vol: $197,989
💰 FINANCE#519$10,052Vol: $141,573
🌤️ WEATHER#1,795$742Vol: $8,241

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,458,210
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$68,241,670
Total Redeem
$1,208,368
Portfolio
$192,579
Predictions
1315
total markets
Trades
10072B / 4151S
Daily Volume
$12,317
Account Age
1690d
since Nov 20, 2021

Periods

#2
Today
$212
Vol: $0
Week
$20
Vol: $0
Month
$64,567
Vol: $759,364
All Time
$1,458,210
Vol: $68,241,670

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
82%
199W / 43L events
Realized PnL
$2,830,746
Win Rate
23%
43W / 141L
Profit Factor
0.05x
Avg Win
$11,700
Avg Loss
$-72,904

Top Winners

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$124,318
Biden drops out in July? $47,875
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$34,701
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea elec$33,073
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?$28,731
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$27,215
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$21,041
Falcons vs. Commanders$19,744
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$15,039
Netanyahu out by March 31?$14,049

Top Losers

TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?$-671,639
Will there be a US Government shutdown? $-551,383
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?$-517,226
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$-450,663
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeti$-446,850
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?$-436,145
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$-403,387
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?$-363,821
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?$-355,322
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?$-353,604

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.552
Sortino
6.018
HHI
198
Diversified
EV per $1
$10.587
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5%
Top-5 markets
18.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
11.1
Active
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
46s
between trades
Avg Gap
36.4m
between trades
Night Trading
23%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.15
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 46s — typical for humanSize CV 6.15 — diverse, typical for human23% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.08 — human randomness11 trades/day — very active315 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
40.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
38 entries
<=2
57 entries
<=5
76 entries
<=10
102 entries
<=20
141 entries
<=50
190 entries
>50
56 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)27.7%
Mid (20-55c)25.3%
High (>55c)47%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 53.9%

Disclosure Bill$-838
New York City$-18,023
Other$-9,757,477

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
200

Single bracket

<=1
166 brackets
<=2
191 brackets
<=3
198 brackets
<=4
199 brackets
<=5
200 brackets
<=8
200 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/12/2022, 6:27:55 PM1 trades$140 min
12/12/2022, 8:58:21 PM3 trades$303 min
1/11/2023, 10:33:58 PM1 trades$30 min
1/12/2023, 3:30:46 PM6 trades$4,8383 min
1/12/2023, 3:43:08 PM1 trades$6710 min
1/13/2023, 9:27:09 AM1 trades$150 min
1/13/2023, 10:24:55 AM1 trades$7740 min
1/19/2023, 10:58:16 PM1 trades$2,3390 min
1/28/2023, 1:41:06 AM1 trades$3150 min
1/28/2023, 1:54:16 AM1 trades$6200 min
1/30/2023, 5:46:12 PM1 trades$3150 min
2/2/2023, 4:35:14 AM1 trades$1,0500 min
2/3/2023, 3:03:40 PM1 trades$8,1490 min
2/3/2023, 5:37:12 PM1 trades$410 min
2/22/2023, 2:10:38 PM1 trades$8,2400 min
2/24/2023, 6:25:36 PM1 trades$1,0050 min
2/25/2023, 4:34:26 PM1 trades$1180 min
2/25/2023, 9:19:44 PM1 trades$1,1140 min
2/26/2023, 11:12:01 PM1 trades$520 min
2/28/2023, 4:32:23 AM2 trades$2,0112 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
07-03
09-10
03-19
09-02
12-19
06-15

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
29.2% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 40.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event