Polydata
Informal-Bend

@Informal-Bend

#8295

0xd1acd3925d895de9aec98ff95f3a30c5279d08d5

1641d· 1306 markets · 13360 tradesVol: $67,173,7532026-05-19T06:23
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

95
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 83%20/20
Profit Factor 10.43x15/15
Sharpe 0.53510/15
Sortino 6.05810/10
EV $+4.39010/10
HHI 20410/10
Profit Days 87%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Informal-Bend is a highly active Polymarket trader ranked #82 on the global PnL leaderboard, boasting an elite Smart Score of 95/100. Over 1514 days, they have executed 13,360 trades across 241 markets, generating a net PnL of approximately $1.42 million on a total volume exceeding $67 million. Their portfolio value currently stands at $561,358.93, reflecting sustained engagement and significant capital allocation. Despite the high volume, their profit factor is 0.05, and their Sharpe ratio is moderate at 0.54.

The trading style of Informal-Bend appears to focus on frequent, high-volume activity with a relatively low win rate of 22.7%, suggesting a high-risk, high-turnover approach. They are not involved in weather markets and maintain a sell percentage of 28%, indicating a balanced approach to exiting positions. The equity trend remains flat and stable, with a max drawdown duration of zero days, which points to effective risk containment and quick recovery from losses. Timing patterns suggest a consistent and methodical approach rather than impulsive trading.

Informal-Bend’s key strengths include their elite status on Polymarket, consistent engagement across diverse markets, and the ability to maintain stability in portfolio value despite a low profit factor. Their high volume and win streak badges confirm persistence and resilience. However, the low profit factor and win rate may raise concerns about the sustainability of returns and potential vulnerability to market shifts. The moderate Sharpe ratio indicates that returns come with notable volatility, which traders should monitor closely.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 83%
Profitable
PnL $+1,419,801
Win Streak
12 wins in a row
Whale
$18,289,984
Consistent
141/163 days
High Roller
$12,081/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#49$727,643Vol: $34,014,232
📈 ECONOMICS#19$231,588Vol: $14,299,088
🎭 CULTURE#28$139,320Vol: $4,783,322
💻 TECH#23$38,933Vol: $4,339,779
SPORTS#551$117,503Vol: $4,222,439
CRYPTO#2,179$18,092Vol: $2,431,749
📢 MENTIONS#357$4,637Vol: $197,989
💰 FINANCE#463$10,052Vol: $141,573
🌤️ WEATHER#1,577$742Vol: $8,241

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,419,801
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$67,173,753
Total Redeem
$1,473,865
Portfolio
$561,359
Predictions
1306
total markets
Trades
9561B / 3799S
Daily Volume
$12,081
Account Age
1641d
since Nov 20, 2021

Periods

#2
Today
$165
Vol: $5,492
Week
$-698
Vol: $23,606
Month
$15,684
Vol: $619,782
All Time
$1,419,801
Vol: $67,173,753

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
83%
205W / 43L events
Realized PnL
$2,666,123
Win Rate
23%
40W / 136L
Profit Factor
0.05x
Avg Win
$12,541
Avg Loss
$-71,957

Top Winners

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$124,318
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$49,056
Biden drops out in July? $47,875
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$34,701
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea elec$33,073
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader?$28,731
Falcons vs. Commanders$19,744
Netanyahu out by March 31?$14,049
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?$13,858
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeti$12,544

Top Losers

TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?$-671,639
Will there be a US Government shutdown? $-551,383
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?$-517,226
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeti$-446,850
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?$-436,145
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$-403,387
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?$-363,821
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?$-355,322
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?$-353,604
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting$-338,798

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.535
Sortino
6.058
HHI
204
Diversified
EV per $1
$4.391
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.1%
Top-5 markets
18.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
10.7
Active
Markets / Day
0.2
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
17:00 UTC
Median Gap
50s
between trades
Avg Gap
37.5m
between trades
Night Trading
22%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.11
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
35
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 50s — typical for humanSize CV 6.10 — diverse, typical for human22% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.06 — human randomness11 trades/day — very active322 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 17:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
39.7
Heavy DCA
<=1
40 entries
<=2
58 entries
<=5
77 entries
<=10
102 entries
<=20
140 entries
<=50
187 entries
>50
54 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)29.2%
Mid (20-55c)25.3%
High (>55c)45.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 53.7%

Disclosure Bill$-838
New York City$-18,023
Other$-9,265,629

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
200

Single bracket

<=1
169 brackets
<=2
191 brackets
<=3
199 brackets
<=4
200 brackets
<=5
200 brackets
<=8
200 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/12/2022, 6:27:55 PM1 trades$140 min
12/12/2022, 8:58:21 PM3 trades$303 min
1/11/2023, 10:33:58 PM1 trades$30 min
1/12/2023, 3:30:46 PM6 trades$4,8383 min
1/12/2023, 3:43:08 PM1 trades$6710 min
1/13/2023, 9:27:09 AM1 trades$150 min
1/13/2023, 10:24:55 AM1 trades$7740 min
1/19/2023, 10:58:16 PM1 trades$2,3390 min
1/28/2023, 1:41:06 AM1 trades$3150 min
1/28/2023, 1:54:16 AM1 trades$6200 min
1/30/2023, 5:46:12 PM1 trades$3150 min
2/2/2023, 4:35:14 AM1 trades$1,0500 min
2/3/2023, 3:03:40 PM1 trades$8,1490 min
2/3/2023, 5:37:12 PM1 trades$410 min
2/22/2023, 2:10:38 PM1 trades$8,2400 min
2/24/2023, 6:25:36 PM1 trades$1,0050 min
2/25/2023, 4:34:26 PM1 trades$1180 min
2/25/2023, 9:19:44 PM1 trades$1,1140 min
2/26/2023, 11:12:01 PM1 trades$520 min
2/28/2023, 4:32:23 AM2 trades$2,0112 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
07-31
09-15
03-31
09-07
01-01
05-19
11-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
28.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 39.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event