Polydata

@Intent-Difference

#2,589,17775

0x4d1221c98952afae2b0afa40aa72ab9e7bc1552b

55d· 736 markets · 13104 tradesVol: $249,0692026-05-31T19:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

75
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 63%17/20
Profit Factor 1.93x14/15
Sharpe 0.2605/15
Sortino 0.2753/10
EV $+0.89510/10
HHI 23410/10
Profit Days 76%10/10
DD/Peak 39%6/10

Summary

Intent-Difference is a highly active trader on Polymarket, with over 13,000 trades across 252 markets in just 54 days. Despite this high volume, the trader currently holds a net PnL of -$529.35 and ranks #2,589,177 globally. Their portfolio value remains stable at $440.24, and they maintain a respectable Smart Score of 75/100, reflecting solid trading skill. The Sharpe Ratio of 0.26 and a profit factor of 0.32 indicate low risk-adjusted returns and a challenging profitability profile.

The trading style of Intent-Difference appears automated, supported by a strong Bot Score of 80/100. The trader shows a preference for high-frequency, short-duration trades, as evidenced by a max drawdown duration of zero days and a consistent equity trend. With no exposure to weather markets and no use of sell orders, their strategy seems focused on holding positions rather than quick flips. The low win rate of 12.2% combined with badges like Contrarian and Diamond Hands suggests a contrarian, risk-tolerant approach that relies on enduring losing streaks in anticipation of larger wins.

Intent-Difference’s key strength lies in their disciplined, automated execution and ability to sustain high trade volumes without significant equity drawdowns. However, the consistently negative PnL and low profit factor highlight the risk of prolonged losses and limited profitability. Traders on Polymarket should note that while Intent-Difference’s style may capitalize on rare, high-impact outcomes, it involves substantial downside exposure and requires substantial patience.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 63%
Contrarian
68% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Bot
Score 80/100
Win Streak
13 wins in a row
Consistent
38/50 days

Categories

1
CRYPTO#1,471,811$-529Vol: $249,069

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-529
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$249,069
Total Redeem
$13,991
Portfolio
$440
Predictions
736
total markets
Trades
13104B / 0S
Daily Volume
$681
Account Age
55d
since Apr 6, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$1
Vol: $445
Week
$3,730
Vol: $445
Month
$-99
Vol: $114,310
All Time
$-529
Vol: $249,069

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
63%
250W / 145L events
Realized PnL
$23,438
Win Rate
12%
13W / 94L
Profit Factor
0.32x
Avg Win
$389
Avg Loss
$-166

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET$1,879
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET$1,313
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7PM ET$1,041
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11PM ET$524
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET$144
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET$96
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 7AM ET$25
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 11AM ET$19
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 11AM ET$9
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11AM ET$5

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5PM ET$-1,535
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 7PM ET$-1,444
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1PM ET$-1,390
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 12AM ET$-994
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9AM ET$-945
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 5PM ET$-843
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10PM ET$-542
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11PM ET$-502
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5PM ET$-462
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11AM ET$-452

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.260
Sortino
0.275
HHI
234
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.895
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
7.8%
Top-5 markets
25%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
357.2
Very active
Markets / Day
6.9
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
2:00 UTC
Median Gap
3s
between trades
Avg Gap
3.6m
between trades
Night Trading
34%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.35
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
8.8

Bot Detection

#6
80
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
81% < 5s — fast clicker/botSize CV 4.35 — diverse, typical for human34% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.37 — human randomness357 trades/day — automation395 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 2:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
52
Heavy DCA
<=1
33 entries
<=2
59 entries
<=5
99 entries
<=10
127 entries
<=20
155 entries
<=50
180 entries
>50
72 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)24.1%
Mid (20-55c)49.8%
High (>55c)26.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 9.7%

Other$-10,585

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
252

Single bracket

<=1
252 brackets
<=2
252 brackets
<=3
252 brackets
<=4
252 brackets
<=5
252 brackets
<=8
252 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/25/2026, 2:45:08 AM29 trades$623 min
4/25/2026, 2:53:46 AM88 trades$2186 min
4/25/2026, 6:47:26 AM77 trades$44513 min
4/25/2026, 4:45:06 PM4 trades$100 min
4/26/2026, 2:49:38 AM60 trades$23511 min
4/26/2026, 11:23:16 PM1 trades$20 min
4/26/2026, 11:29:12 PM1 trades$10 min
4/29/2026, 5:54:34 AM2 trades$11 min
4/29/2026, 9:57:14 AM1 trades$2760 min
4/29/2026, 8:00:10 PM1 trades$10 min
4/30/2026, 2:00:14 AM1 trades$10 min
4/30/2026, 3:54:22 AM6 trades$5035 min
4/30/2026, 12:00:00 PM2 trades$1880 min
5/4/2026, 11:54:40 PM1 trades$10 min
5/5/2026, 5:53:14 AM7 trades$220 min
5/5/2026, 7:47:08 AM3 trades$110 min
5/5/2026, 7:54:24 AM1 trades$10 min
5/5/2026, 7:56:14 PM10 trades$21 min
5/5/2026, 10:45:42 PM17 trades$422 min
5/5/2026, 11:13:34 PM21 trades$383 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-07
04-15
04-23
05-06
05-14
05-22
05-30
05-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 52/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event