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JoeTheMeteorologist

@JoeTheMeteorologist

#1,30379

0x1838cca016850ac7185a9b149fe7d0bd2d6629b4

368d· 3126 markets · 4177 tradesVol: $4,155,9082026-06-26T20:26
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

79
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 40%5/20
Profit Factor 48.05x15/15
Sharpe 0.4649/15
Sortino 11.24310/10
EV $+56.88210/10
HHI 11810/10
Profit Days 80%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

JoeTheMeteorologist is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1303 globally by net profit with a total net PnL of $137,010.94. Over 539 days, they have executed 4,177 trades across 541 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $4.1 million. Despite a portfolio value of just $75.10, their Smart Score of 79/100 indicates strong trading skill, supported by a win rate of 70.5% and a profit factor of 45.80.

This trader specializes heavily in weather-related markets, which constitute 92% of their activity, reflecting a focused and niche strategy. Their trading style appears to be more manual than automated, with a semi-bot score of 55/100, and they tend to hold positions rather than frequently selling, as indicated by an 11% sell rate. JoeTheMeteorologist demonstrates a contrarian and dollar-cost averaging approach, aiming for steady gains rather than high-frequency speculation. The Sharpe ratio of 0.46 suggests moderate risk-adjusted returns with a flat equity trend.

The strengths of JoeTheMeteorologist lie in their consistent profitability and expert focus on weather markets, which likely leverages domain knowledge. Their very high profit factor and low drawdown duration indicate strong risk management. However, the low portfolio value and moderate Sharpe ratio may point to limited capital deployment or cautious risk-taking, which could constrain growth potential. Additionally, reliance on a narrow market segment could expose them to sector-specific risks.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

8
Profitable
PnL $+137,011
Lottery Player
88% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
91% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 6.9 entries/market
Weather Pro
92% weather
Win Streak
8 wins in a row
Consistent
91/114 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

8
🌤️ WEATHER#18$51,799Vol: $3,023,696
SPORTS#2,129$22,601Vol: $506,698
🎭 CULTURE#5,658$818Vol: $13,365
CRYPTO#28,567$1,044Vol: $3,751
🏛️ POLITICS#181,546$8Vol: $2,925
💻 TECH#180,669$-1Vol: $1,180
💰 FINANCE#617,526$-146Vol: $1,165
📈 ECONOMICS#590,543$-11Vol: $541

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$137,011
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$4,155,908
Total Redeem
$5,053
Portfolio
$75
Predictions
3126
total markets
Trades
3727B / 450S
Daily Volume
$30
Account Age
368d
since Jun 27, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-7
Vol: $7,600
Week
$-24
Vol: $8,000
Month
$2,102
Vol: $294,138
All Time
$137,011
Vol: $4,155,908

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
43%
146W / 192L events
Realized PnL
$248,168
Win Rate
70%
31W / 8L
Profit Factor
45.8x
Avg Win
$460
Avg Loss
$-39

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $7,832 (56.2% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24?$4,756
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - C$1,870
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4?$1,206
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31?$948
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex - Completed match?$940
Games Total: O/U 3.5$869
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31?$860
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6?$545
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6$365
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 5?$260

Top Losers

Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $175 Week of June 8 2026?$-147
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $9B in 2026?$-71
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9?$-46
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Song Yadong next?$-37
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 30?$-7
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?$-2
New pandemic in 2026?$-1
Games Total: O/U 2.5$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.464
Sortino
11.243
HHI
118
Diversified
EV per $1
$56.882
Kelly %
66.3%
Half-Kelly
33.2%
Top-1 market
4.6%
Top-5 markets
18.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
25.8
Active
Markets / Day
3.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
4:00 UTC
Median Gap
59s
between trades
Avg Gap
17.8m
between trades
Night Trading
42%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.14
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.4

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
MEDIUM
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 59s — typical for humanSize CV 3.14 — diverse, typical for human41% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness26 trades/day — suspiciously high682 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 4:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
6.9
Active DCA
<=1
108 entries
<=2
183 entries
<=5
320 entries
<=10
426 entries
<=20
514 entries
<=50
538 entries
>50
3 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)88%
Mid (20-55c)3.4%
High (>55c)8.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 82.6%

Moscow$4,849
Other$4,246
Seoul$1,319
Wellington$1,206
Shenzhen$948
Hong Kong$892
Istanbul$260
Amsterdam$218
Shanghai$4
Tokyo$0
Qingdao$0
Madrid$0
Taipei$0
Munich$0
Chicago$0
Beijing$0
London$0
Paris$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.1
Events covered
262

Moderate coverage

<=1
118 brackets
<=2
182 brackets
<=3
223 brackets
<=4
251 brackets
<=5
259 brackets
<=8
262 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
1/15/2026, 7:18:34 PM14 trades$935 min
1/23/2026, 3:27:06 PM7 trades$432 min
1/29/2026, 2:31:40 AM3 trades$10 min
3/3/2026, 12:36:51 PM2 trades$30 min
3/3/2026, 10:29:43 PM1 trades$130 min
3/4/2026, 8:59:07 PM11 trades$1711 min
3/6/2026, 1:08:07 AM1 trades$20 min
3/6/2026, 1:03:41 PM40 trades$1776 min
3/16/2026, 11:31:25 AM16 trades$663 min
3/28/2026, 7:59:16 PM8 trades$863 min
4/13/2026, 11:50:31 AM1 trades$40 min
4/13/2026, 1:18:49 PM1 trades$10 min
4/18/2026, 12:52:54 AM1 trades$200 min
4/25/2026, 4:58:56 PM13 trades$2924 min
4/26/2026, 6:38:42 AM6 trades$1061 min
4/26/2026, 6:08:36 PM4 trades$701 min
4/27/2026, 1:42:54 AM5 trades$281 min
4/27/2026, 12:40:06 PM1 trades$80 min
4/27/2026, 1:20:08 PM1 trades$10 min
4/27/2026, 1:25:44 PM1 trades$20 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
07-11
02-20
03-28
04-21
05-10
06-01
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
91.7% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
10.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 6.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.1 br/event