Polydata

@Jolly-Skate

#9,85294

0x7f1cf466f7307fa8a4fb2525e0c0e322054c55e4

161d· 889 markets · 995 tradesVol: $324,9012026-07-14T22:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

94
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 57.76x15/15
Sharpe 0.57611/15
Sortino 173541.62410/10
EV $+0.1628/10
HHI 4210/10
Profit Days 99%10/10
DD/Peak 1%10/10

Summary

Jolly-Skate is a highly active trader on Polymarket, with nearly a thousand trades executed over 161 days. They rank #9852 globally on the PnL leaderboard, having generated a net profit of $15,020.95 from a total trading volume exceeding $324,000. Their performance is marked by an elite Smart Score of 94/100, indicating strong, consistent profitability despite a moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.58. Jolly-Skate has maintained a flat equity trend without significant drawdowns, reflecting stable risk management.

This trader exhibits a preference for weather-related markets, which constitute 43% of their portfolio, suggesting specialization in that sector. Jolly-Skate’s win rate is exceptionally high at 99.8%, with a profit factor of 57.76, implying a low-risk, high-precision trading style focused on frequent, small gains rather than speculative bets. Their sell percentage of 23% indicates a tendency to hold positions rather than quickly exiting trades. The trader operates manually, as reflected by a low Bot Score of 15/100, emphasizing a human-driven approach.

Jolly-Skate’s key strengths include their remarkable consistency and precision, evidenced by badges such as Sniper and Win Streak, which highlight their timing and accuracy on Polymarket. However, the flat equity trend and moderate Sharpe ratio suggest limited upside volatility, potentially capping large profits. Additionally, the concentration in weather markets could expose them to sector-specific risks. Overall, Jolly-Skate demonstrates disciplined, low-risk trading with a strong track record but may face challenges in scaling returns further.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+15,021
Win Streak
441 wins in a row
Whale
$128,322
Consistent
116/117 days
Cool Head
DD 1%

Categories

2
🌤️ WEATHER#114$15,040Vol: $321,585
CRYPTO#1,229,817$-19Vol: $3,316

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$15,021
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$324,901
Total Redeem
$35,682
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
889
total markets
Trades
763B / 232S
Daily Volume
$797
Account Age
161d
since Feb 3, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$123
Vol: $2,127
Week
$151
Vol: $2,833
Month
$841
Vol: $14,211
All Time
$15,021
Vol: $324,901

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
233W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$18,382
Win Rate
100%
605W / 1L
Profit Factor
57.76x
Avg Win
$34
Avg Loss
$-358

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $4,433 (21.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28?$2,530
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on Jun$1,046
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 15?$857
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 2?$839
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 6?$625
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 13?$415
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 5?$377
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 4?$314
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 2?$302
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 16?$289

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 21?$-358

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.576
Sortino
inf
HHI
42
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.162
Kelly %
99.2%
Half-Kelly
49.6%
Top-1 market
0.9%
Top-5 markets
4.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
6.2
Moderate
Markets / Day
4.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
10.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.2h
between trades
Night Trading
13%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.37
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.3

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 598s — typical for humanSize CV 1.37 — diverse, typical for human13% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.29 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
670 entries
<=2
708 entries
<=5
711 entries
<=10
712 entries
<=20
712 entries
<=50
712 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.9%
Mid (20-55c)2.9%
High (>55c)96.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 6.3%

Madrid$5,095
Moscow$1,824
Ankara$1,816
Istanbul$1,300
Chicago$1,295
Paris$1,160
New York City$1,000
Toronto$834
Miami$813
Amsterdam$754
Atlanta$742
Helsinki$691
Other$576
Buenos Aires$529
Los Angeles$439
Shanghai$279
Chongqing$226
Houston$164

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
685

Single bracket

<=1
660 brackets
<=2
683 brackets
<=3
685 brackets
<=4
685 brackets
<=5
685 brackets
<=8
685 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/3/2026, 6:50:40 PM1 trades$220 min
2/7/2026, 7:36:53 PM1 trades$50 min
2/7/2026, 8:33:41 PM1 trades$50 min
2/8/2026, 9:51:33 AM1 trades$50 min
2/8/2026, 7:37:57 PM1 trades$50 min
2/11/2026, 12:52:19 PM1 trades$60 min
2/12/2026, 1:21:19 PM1 trades$60 min
2/13/2026, 12:34:09 AM1 trades$60 min
2/17/2026, 10:48:39 AM1 trades$10 min
2/17/2026, 4:19:17 PM1 trades$10 min
2/20/2026, 4:22:52 PM1 trades$40 min
2/20/2026, 4:33:04 PM1 trades$30 min
2/20/2026, 5:07:28 PM1 trades$40 min
2/20/2026, 5:37:42 PM3 trades$119 min
2/20/2026, 5:52:28 PM1 trades$40 min
2/20/2026, 6:02:04 PM2 trades$70 min
2/20/2026, 6:07:06 PM1 trades$40 min
2/20/2026, 6:12:16 PM1 trades$40 min
2/20/2026, 6:22:02 PM1 trades$40 min
2/20/2026, 6:27:10 PM1 trades$40 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-07
03-16
04-08
04-29
05-22
06-10
07-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
43.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
23.3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event