Polydata

@Jovial-Lookout

#33193

0x37e053beabee77acc15e641dfe8e395b2b2d024e

597d· 664 markets · 14883 tradesVol: $36,087,5882026-06-06T18:20
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

93
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 60%15/20
Profit Factor 8.27x15/15
Sharpe 0.69213/15
Sortino 1.85810/10
EV $+7.09810/10
HHI 15310/10
Profit Days 81%10/10
DD/Peak 2%10/10

Summary

Jovial-Lookout is an active trader on Polymarket, ranked #331 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $470,347.67. Over 803 days, they have executed 14,883 trades across 253 markets, accumulating a total volume exceeding $36 million. Despite a relatively low win rate of 16.2%, their Smart Score of 93/100 places them in the elite category, indicating strong overall trading performance and skill.

This trader exhibits a contrarian and sniper-style approach, focusing on selective, high-conviction positions without engaging in weather markets or selling contracts. Jovial-Lookout maintains a flat equity trend with a Sharpe ratio of 0.69, suggesting moderate risk-adjusted returns. Their profit factor of 0.11 indicates that losses outweigh gains on individual trades, but disciplined position sizing and timing help sustain profitability. The absence of drawdown duration points to effective risk management and quick recovery from adverse moves.

Jovial-Lookout’s strengths lie in their consistency and elite Smart Score, reflecting strategic precision and resilience on Polymarket. However, the low win rate and profit factor highlight potential vulnerabilities in trade execution or market selection. Their semi-bot trading style may also introduce automation risks, despite a solid equity base and stable portfolio value. Overall, Jovial-Lookout demonstrates a balance of skillful strategy and some exposure to volatility in their trading profile.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 60%
Profitable
PnL $+470,348
Contrarian
63% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
18 wins in a row
Whale
$5,840,119
Consistent
123/152 days
High Roller
$7,273/day
Cool Head
DD 2%

Categories

4
SPORTS#185$472,259Vol: $36,024,520
CRYPTO#1,550,126$-3,616Vol: $46,867
🎭 CULTURE#397,732$-0Vol: $401
🌤️ WEATHER#71,724$0Vol: $300

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$470,348
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$36,087,588
Total Redeem
$1,050,515
Portfolio
$23,795
Predictions
664
total markets
Trades
14883B / 0S
Daily Volume
$7,273
Account Age
597d
since Oct 17, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$157
Vol: $22,361
Week
$298
Vol: $59,239
Month
$298
Vol: $59,239
All Time
$470,348
Vol: $36,087,588

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
66%
226W / 117L events
Realized PnL
$8,175,030
Win Rate
16%
19W / 98L
Profit Factor
0.11x
Avg Win
$25,216
Avg Loss
$-46,478

Top Winners

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?$117,460
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24?$72,000
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-05-17?$54,490
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17?$50,845
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24?$45,870
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17?$34,980
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17?$32,000
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11?$22,680
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?$17,226
Pisa SC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5$13,500

Top Losers

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-04?$-402,253
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12?$-215,405
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?$-200,774
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-24?$-145,622
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?$-124,694
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07?$-97,649
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23?$-95,831
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22?$-93,364
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11?$-86,891
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13?$-80,361

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.692
Sortino
1.858
HHI
153
Diversified
EV per $1
$7.098
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
6.9%
Top-5 markets
19.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
80.0
Very active
Markets / Day
1.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
12s
between trades
Avg Gap
8.0m
between trades
Night Trading
4%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
6.22
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
9 min
Avg Trades / Session
14.0

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 12s — suspiciously fastSize CV 6.22 — diverse, typical for human4% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.07 — human randomness80 trades/day — mass trading423 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
58.8
Heavy DCA
<=1
29 entries
<=2
42 entries
<=5
66 entries
<=10
85 entries
<=20
132 entries
<=50
178 entries
>50
75 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)5.3%
Mid (20-55c)62.6%
High (>55c)32%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 12.6%

Paris$-107,527
Milan$-188,205
Madrid$-625,044
Other$-3,154,958

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
239

Single bracket

<=1
225 brackets
<=2
239 brackets
<=3
239 brackets
<=4
239 brackets
<=5
239 brackets
<=8
239 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/2/2025, 4:52:36 PM21 trades$3,3939 min
12/2/2025, 5:29:52 PM3 trades$2,3375 min
12/2/2025, 5:41:44 PM1 trades$1000 min
12/2/2025, 5:49:44 PM14 trades$3,5853 min
12/2/2025, 6:01:04 PM18 trades$2,52810 min
12/2/2025, 6:24:36 PM12 trades$4,90214 min
12/2/2025, 6:48:12 PM126 trades$32,57640 min
12/2/2025, 7:40:25 PM1 trades$110 min
12/4/2025, 5:40:37 PM1 trades$3230 min
12/4/2025, 7:26:13 PM186 trades$19,17520 min
12/5/2025, 3:23:33 PM2 trades$324 min
12/5/2025, 3:40:37 PM2 trades$890 min
12/5/2025, 3:55:43 PM1 trades$850 min
12/5/2025, 4:03:01 PM6 trades$464 min
12/5/2025, 6:27:39 PM13 trades$1,17714 min
12/5/2025, 6:50:23 PM5 trades$8,1897 min
12/5/2025, 7:09:13 PM2 trades$853 min
12/6/2025, 6:37:43 AM1 trades$7360 min
12/6/2025, 6:46:49 AM1 trades$540 min
12/6/2025, 7:02:33 AM7 trades$1538 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
10-19
12-02
01-01
01-29
03-03
04-11
06-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 58.8/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event