Polydata

@Jovial-Lookout

#47184

0x37e053beabee77acc15e641dfe8e395b2b2d024e

642d· 1197 markets · 35931 tradesVol: $94,218,0252026-07-21T17:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

84
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 52%11/20
Profit Factor 2.94x15/15
Sharpe 0.55710/15
Sortino 0.7568/10
EV $+1.93910/10
HHI 25010/10
Profit Days 72%10/10
DD/Peak 5%10/10

Summary

Jovial-Lookout is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 35,931 trades executed over 592 days and participation in 256 markets. Ranked #471 globally on the PnL leaderboard, Jovial-Lookout has generated a net profit of $436,160.74 from a total trading volume exceeding $94 million. Their Smart Score of 84/100 indicates very good trading acumen, although the portfolio value currently stands at zero, suggesting recent position closures or withdrawals.

Jovial-Lookout’s strategy appears to emphasize high-frequency trading across a diverse set of markets, though they avoid weather-related markets entirely. Their win rate is relatively low at 22.4%, and the profit factor of 0.12 suggests that losses exceed gains on average. The trader’s Sharpe ratio of 0.56 indicates moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the zero percent selling rate implies a buy-and-hold or long-only approach. The combination of a semi-bot trading style suggests Jovial-Lookout leverages algorithmic tools along with manual decision-making to optimize timing.

Key strengths for Jovial-Lookout include consistent profitability, demonstrated by badges such as Profitable and Diamond Hands, along with a stable equity trend and no significant drawdown duration. However, the low profit factor and win rate highlight potential risks from frequent small losses. The reliance on semi-automated systems may also expose them to technical vulnerabilities. Overall, Jovial-Lookout’s disciplined yet cautious approach on Polymarket has yielded solid results, but ongoing risk management remains essential.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+436,161
Diamond Hands
0% sell
Win Streak
10 wins in a row
Whale
$10,647,926
Consistent
116/161 days
High Roller
$17,986/day
Cool Head
DD 5%

Categories

4
SPORTS#260$438,202Vol: $94,154,662
CRYPTO#1,644,958$-3,616Vol: $46,842
🌤️ WEATHER#273,368$-51Vol: $500
🎭 CULTURE#405,274$-0Vol: $401

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$436,161
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$94,218,025
Total Redeem
$3,919,710
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
1197
total markets
Trades
35930B / 1S
Daily Volume
$17,986
Account Age
642d
since Oct 17, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-235
Vol: $2,632,314
Month
$146,977
Vol: $27,745,502
All Time
$436,161
Vol: $94,218,025

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
54%
206W / 173L events
Realized PnL
$13,779,841
Win Rate
22%
11W / 38L
Profit Factor
0.12x
Avg Win
$36,649
Avg Loss
$-85,991

Top Winners

Will France win on 2026-07-18?$147,737
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$129,459
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu$35,275
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?$21,657
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Argentina?$20,543
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?$19,476
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina?$12,691
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Argentina?$5,842
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Argentina?$5,500
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$4,695

Top Losers

Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Belgium?$-314,201
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Colombia?$-252,000
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Morocco?$-218,269
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Belgium?$-197,737
France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score$-191,874
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Belgium?$-185,708
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?$-177,875
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Belgium?$-174,259
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score$-136,081
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Egypt?$-128,592

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.556
Sortino
0.756
HHI
250
Diversified
EV per $1
$1.939
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
7.4%
Top-5 markets
27.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
156.8
Very active
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
6s
between trades
Avg Gap
3.5m
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
16.03
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
9 min
Avg Trades / Session
14.0

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
59% < 10s — regular intervalSize CV 16.03 — diverse, typical for human8% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.07 — human randomness157 trades/day — automation480 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
140.4
Heavy DCA
<=1
26 entries
<=2
38 entries
<=5
57 entries
<=10
78 entries
<=20
112 entries
<=50
161 entries
>50
95 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)5%
Mid (20-55c)43.1%
High (>55c)52%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 5.2%

Paris$-22,790
Milan$-25,487
Madrid$-179,582
Other$-2,636,662

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
234

Single bracket

<=1
219 brackets
<=2
231 brackets
<=3
232 brackets
<=4
232 brackets
<=5
234 brackets
<=8
234 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/2/2025, 4:52:36 PM21 trades$3,3939 min
12/2/2025, 5:29:52 PM3 trades$2,3375 min
12/2/2025, 5:41:44 PM1 trades$1000 min
12/2/2025, 5:49:44 PM14 trades$3,5853 min
12/2/2025, 6:01:04 PM18 trades$2,52810 min
12/2/2025, 6:24:36 PM12 trades$4,90214 min
12/2/2025, 6:48:12 PM126 trades$32,57640 min
12/2/2025, 7:40:25 PM1 trades$110 min
12/4/2025, 5:40:37 PM1 trades$3230 min
12/4/2025, 7:26:13 PM186 trades$19,17520 min
12/5/2025, 3:23:33 PM2 trades$324 min
12/5/2025, 3:40:37 PM2 trades$890 min
12/5/2025, 3:55:43 PM1 trades$850 min
12/5/2025, 4:03:01 PM6 trades$464 min
12/5/2025, 6:27:39 PM13 trades$1,17714 min
12/5/2025, 6:50:23 PM5 trades$8,1897 min
12/5/2025, 7:09:13 PM2 trades$853 min
12/6/2025, 6:37:43 AM1 trades$7360 min
12/6/2025, 6:46:49 AM1 trades$540 min
12/6/2025, 7:02:33 AM7 trades$1538 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-05
12-15
01-19
02-24
04-06
06-16
07-14

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 140.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event