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@Knowing-Bargain

#2,572,92796

0x3f0613aa74acee2f75edd82ae477f7fb037a0e0f

128d· 718 markets · 1060 tradesVol: $20,7532026-06-27T16:23
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

96
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 98%20/20
Profit Factor 41.73x15/15
Sharpe 0.58611/15
Sortino 23205.29210/10
EV $+0.43510/10
HHI 19910/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Knowing-Bargain is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 1,060 trades across 544 markets over 113 days. Despite a high volume of $20,753, their net PnL stands at -$186.92, placing them at rank #2,572,927 globally. The trader holds an elite Smart Score of 96/100, indicating strong analytical skills, though their portfolio value is currently zero and their Sharpe ratio is a modest 0.59.

This trader shows a clear preference for weather-related markets, which constitute 88% of their activity. They maintain a contrarian and sniper style, often entering trades quickly, as suggested by their fast interface usage and a 30% sell rate. Knowing-Bargain exhibits a high win rate of 90% and an exceptional profit factor of 41.73, signaling effective risk management and timing, though their equity trend remains flat, indicating limited growth over time.

Knowing-Bargain’s strengths lie in their disciplined approach and ability to capitalize on weather market opportunities with strong win consistency. However, the flat equity trend and negative net PnL highlight potential concerns around scaling profits or occasional losses. Their low Bot Score suggests manual trading, which may impact consistency under varying market conditions. Overall, they demonstrate solid skills but face challenges turning wins into lasting portfolio gains.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 98%
Lottery Player
56% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
82% entries <$0.50
Weather Pro
88% weather
Win Streak
98 wins in a row
Consistent
26/27 days
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

4
🌤️ WEATHER#274,089$-112Vol: $16,757
CRYPTO#1,367,370$-65Vol: $3,563
🏛️ POLITICS#1,325,311$-17Vol: $251
SPORTS#229,211$16Vol: $117

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-187
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$20,753
Total Redeem
$7
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
718
total markets
Trades
745B / 315S
Daily Volume
$17
Account Age
128d
since Mar 2, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-17
Vol: $251
Month
$-17
Vol: $255
All Time
$-187
Vol: $20,753

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
215W / 4L events
Realized PnL
$644
Win Rate
90%
224W / 23L
Profit Factor
41.73x
Avg Win
$3
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $70 (11.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$28
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$21
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on April 5?$21
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 5?$20
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$19
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$18
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$18
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET$13
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on April 3?$13
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on April 3?$13

Top Losers

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.586
Sortino
inf
HHI
199
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.435
Kelly %
87.2%
Half-Kelly
43.6%
Top-1 market
7.8%
Top-5 markets
24.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
9.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
4.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
33.4m
between trades
Night Trading
28%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.43
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.5

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 300s — typical for humanSize CV 3.43 — diverse, typical for human28% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.06 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.4
Single entry
<=1
413 entries
<=2
498 entries
<=5
544 entries
<=10
544 entries
<=20
544 entries
<=50
544 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)56.1%
Mid (20-55c)30.6%
High (>55c)13.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 79.8%

Other$162
Panama City$45
Mexico City$36
Madrid$23
Tokyo$22
London$22
Busan$20
Houston$20
Tel Aviv$20
Denver$19
Buenos Aires$15
Shanghai$15
Munich$15
Seoul$14
Milan$12
Moscow$11
Lucknow$10
Ankara$9

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
369

Single bracket

<=1
264 brackets
<=2
334 brackets
<=3
352 brackets
<=4
360 brackets
<=5
365 brackets
<=8
369 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/2/2026, 9:27:51 AM1 trades$100 min
3/8/2026, 4:06:11 PM1 trades$210 min
3/9/2026, 6:40:37 AM31 trades$1,25256 min
3/9/2026, 7:55:23 AM3 trades$3726 min
3/9/2026, 8:15:13 AM3 trades$85 min
3/9/2026, 8:25:13 AM2 trades$20 min
3/9/2026, 8:31:55 AM7 trades$354 min
3/9/2026, 9:00:51 AM8 trades$136 min
3/9/2026, 9:15:11 AM18 trades$2017 min
3/9/2026, 9:40:17 AM1 trades$30 min
3/9/2026, 10:48:11 AM23 trades$7040 min
3/9/2026, 12:00:55 PM4 trades$42 min
3/9/2026, 12:11:39 PM6 trades$63 min
3/9/2026, 5:22:39 PM1 trades$10 min
3/9/2026, 5:35:57 PM4 trades$61 min
3/9/2026, 5:56:57 PM1 trades$30 min
3/10/2026, 4:15:25 AM36 trades$7921 min
3/10/2026, 4:46:07 AM17 trades$4021 min
3/10/2026, 8:12:09 AM1 trades$10 min
3/10/2026, 8:28:17 AM3 trades$35 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-08
03-14
03-21
04-03
04-07
04-11
04-15

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
87.9% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
29.7% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.4/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event