Polydata

@Lawful-Stumbling

#449,30642

0x3f201a8f3523af40ada4be3f9de3d2e3ce783a2a

122d· 124 markets · 341 tradesVol: $11,0552026-06-23T21:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

42
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 93%20/20
Profit Factor 0.99x2/15
HHI 11710/10
Profit Days 84%10/10
DD/Peak 225%0/10

Summary

Lawful-Stumbling is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 341 trades across 124 markets over 192 days. Despite a relatively low portfolio value of $50.95, they have achieved a net profit of $12.71 and hold a global PnL rank of #449306. Their overall Smart Score of 42/100 suggests average performance, supported by a strong win rate of 98.3% and a profit factor of 2.15.

This trader appears to employ a consistent, low-risk approach, focusing on weather markets for about 15% of their trades. Lawful-Stumbling’s sell rate of 51% and a Sharpe ratio near zero indicate a cautious timing strategy with minimal exposure to high volatility. The Sniper and Consistent badges reflect a style that emphasizes precision and steady gains rather than aggressive speculation. Their manual trading nature is confirmed by a low Bot Score of 15/100.

Key strengths for Lawful-Stumbling lie in their high win rate and solid profit factor, which demonstrate effective market selection and trade execution on Polymarket. However, the downward equity trend and low portfolio value raise concerns about scalability and long-term growth. The short max drawdown duration suggests good risk control, but the overall modest returns may limit their impact in more competitive environments.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 93%
Profitable
PnL $+13
Win Streak
67 wins in a row
Consistent
46/55 days

Categories

4
SPORTS#1,416,403$-25Vol: $8,936
🌤️ WEATHER#13,744$24Vol: $1,508
📢 MENTIONS#25,923$5Vol: $106
🏛️ POLITICS#414,576$0Vol: $44

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$13
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$11,055
Total Redeem
$947
Portfolio
$51
Predictions
124
total markets
Trades
166B / 175S
Daily Volume
$25
Account Age
122d
since Feb 21, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$79
Vol: $42
Week
$19
Vol: $268
Month
$51
Vol: $5,473
All Time
$13
Vol: $11,055

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
92%
106W / 9L events
Realized PnL
$131
Win Rate
98%
114W / 2L
Profit Factor
2.15x
Avg Win
$3
Avg Loss
$-74

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $59 (35% of PnL)

Top Winners

T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs South Africa$30
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?$20
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?$10
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5$8
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5$8
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?$7
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5$7
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)$6
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs$6
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5$6

Top Losers

Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?$-94
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?$-53

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.003
Sortino
-0.002
HHI
117
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.014
Kelly %
79.2%
Half-Kelly
39.6%
Top-1 market
3.6%
Top-5 markets
11.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
9.2m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.7h
between trades
Night Trading
9%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.86
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 550s — typical for humanSize CV 0.86 — diverse, typical for human9% at night — normal sleep pattern23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.09 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
97 entries
<=2
117 entries
<=5
124 entries
<=10
124 entries
<=20
124 entries
<=50
124 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.6%
Mid (20-55c)6%
High (>55c)93.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 32.7%

Other$228
Buenos Aires$7
Paris$6
Karachi$5
London$2
Seoul$2
Cape Town$1
Atlanta$1
Miami$1
Busan$0
Jeddah$0
Amsterdam$0
Madrid$-85

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
116

Single bracket

<=1
108 brackets
<=2
116 brackets
<=3
116 brackets
<=4
116 brackets
<=5
116 brackets
<=8
116 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/22/2026, 3:27:54 PM1 trades$300 min
2/22/2026, 3:46:52 PM2 trades$613 min
2/22/2026, 3:55:48 PM1 trades$310 min
2/22/2026, 4:42:02 PM1 trades$310 min
2/22/2026, 4:56:02 PM1 trades$330 min
2/22/2026, 6:06:44 PM1 trades$330 min
2/22/2026, 9:24:32 PM2 trades$744 min
2/23/2026, 7:25:36 PM1 trades$380 min
2/23/2026, 10:11:16 PM1 trades$390 min
2/24/2026, 6:43:10 AM1 trades$390 min
2/24/2026, 7:21:38 PM1 trades$390 min
2/25/2026, 8:08:06 AM1 trades$450 min
2/25/2026, 3:13:50 PM1 trades$460 min
2/26/2026, 10:54:14 AM1 trades$460 min
2/26/2026, 6:45:04 PM1 trades$490 min
2/26/2026, 9:51:02 PM1 trades$500 min
2/27/2026, 10:32:03 AM1 trades$500 min
2/27/2026, 6:28:45 PM1 trades$510 min
2/27/2026, 6:52:43 PM2 trades$531 min
2/27/2026, 9:58:45 PM1 trades$530 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-22
03-03
05-06
05-28
06-07
06-17
06-23
09-02

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
15.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
51.3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event