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@Limping-Shape

#15,83863

0x81035115a389a085e36255e5cb9b9ab8ee3723a1

106d· 1130 markets · 18835 tradesVol: $1,548,1452026-06-29T19:32
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

63
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 21%0/20
Profit Factor 1.70x11/15
Sharpe 0.3527/15
Sortino 1.31210/10
EV $+0.72310/10
HHI 6910/10
Profit Days 52%6/10
DD/Peak 9%10/10

Summary

Limping-Shape is an experienced trader on Polymarket, ranked #15,838 globally by net profit and showing consistent activity over 269 days. With 18,835 trades across 862 markets, Limping-Shape has generated a net PnL of $8,533.41 on a substantial total volume exceeding $1.5 million. Their smart score of 63/100 indicates solid trading skills, and an upward equity trend suggests steady portfolio growth despite a modest portfolio value of $47.27.

The trader specializes exclusively in weather markets, indicating a focused niche strategy. Limping-Shape exhibits a relatively low-risk profile, reflected by a low sell percentage of 4% and a 64% win rate with a high profit factor of 3.85. Their trading style combines semi-automated bot-assisted execution with manual intervention, as suggested by a bot score of 65/100. This approach likely enables disciplined dollar-cost averaging (DCA) and contrarian bets, as highlighted by badges like DCA Master and Contrarian, favoring patient, strategic entries and long holds.

Limping-Shape’s strengths include a high profit factor, consistent wins, and a zero-day max drawdown duration, pointing to effective risk management and resilience. However, a Sharpe ratio of 0.35 indicates limited risk-adjusted returns, and the narrow focus on weather markets could expose them to sector-specific risks. Overall, Limping-Shape’s disciplined approach and upward equity trend make them a noteworthy trader on Polymarket, though diversification and improved risk-adjusted performance could enhance their strategy.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+8,533
Lottery Player
97% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
99% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
4% sell
DCA Master
avg 20.9 entries/market
Weather Pro
100% weather
Hedger
avg 2.5 brackets/event
Win Streak
13 wins in a row
Cool Head
DD 9%

Categories

3
🌤️ WEATHER#198$8,539Vol: $1,547,047
🎭 CULTURE#584,409$-2Vol: $1,001
📢 MENTIONS#98,388$-3Vol: $97

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$8,533
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,548,145
Total Redeem
$1,407
Portfolio
$47
Predictions
1130
total markets
Trades
18022B / 813S
Daily Volume
$106
Account Age
106d
since Apr 5, 2026

Periods

#2
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$8,533
Vol: $1,548,145

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
25%
93W / 274L events
Realized PnL
$34,134
Win Rate
64%
32W / 18L
Profit Factor
3.85x
Avg Win
$237
Avg Loss
$-110

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $4,459 (79.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?$3,392
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16?$637
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C or below on May 7?$430
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?$362
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16?$347
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F $325
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 23?$254
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 6?$252
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 18?$251
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 19?$242

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 15?$-531
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 17?$-337
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on April 24?$-238
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 14?$-158
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 8?$-147
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F $-93
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 27?$-92
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 19?$-87
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4?$-80
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 14?$-61

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.352
Sortino
1.312
HHI
69
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.723
Kelly %
55.7%
Half-Kelly
27.8%
Top-1 market
3.7%
Top-5 markets
11.8%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
449.8
Very active
Markets / Day
20.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
38s
between trades
Avg Gap
4.0m
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.90
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.7

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 38s — typical for humanSize CV 4.90 — diverse, typical for human8% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.09 — human randomness450 trades/day — automation21 markets/day — mass coverage1096 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
20.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
125 entries
<=2
183 entries
<=5
312 entries
<=10
421 entries
<=20
574 entries
<=50
762 entries
>50
100 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)96.5%
Mid (20-55c)2.7%
High (>55c)0.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 87%

London$3,884
Paris$822
Madrid$475
New York City$330
Cape Town$45
Miami$38
Beijing$28
Taipei$4
Chongqing$3
Amsterdam$0
Munich$0
Shanghai$0
Shenzhen$0
Hong Kong$0
Milan$0
Busan$0
Istanbul$0
Seoul$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.5
Events covered
340

Moderate coverage

<=1
129 brackets
<=2
209 brackets
<=3
259 brackets
<=4
288 brackets
<=5
315 brackets
<=8
338 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/6/2026, 4:09:21 AM1 trades$20 min
4/6/2026, 7:58:53 AM1 trades$60 min
4/6/2026, 8:56:59 AM1 trades$00 min
4/6/2026, 9:22:51 AM2 trades$04 min
4/6/2026, 9:32:49 AM6 trades$172 min
4/6/2026, 10:34:21 AM1 trades$290 min
4/6/2026, 10:51:53 AM1 trades$70 min
4/6/2026, 11:53:27 AM2 trades$363 min
4/6/2026, 12:16:29 PM1 trades$190 min
4/6/2026, 12:35:31 PM1 trades$180 min
4/6/2026, 1:58:29 PM1 trades$40 min
4/6/2026, 2:57:55 PM1 trades$90 min
4/6/2026, 3:14:43 PM1 trades$200 min
4/6/2026, 3:19:49 PM1 trades$10 min
4/6/2026, 4:43:31 PM9 trades$1505 min
4/6/2026, 5:59:43 PM9 trades$72 min
4/6/2026, 6:09:39 PM2 trades$20 min
4/6/2026, 7:22:19 PM8 trades$123 min
4/6/2026, 7:36:59 PM27 trades$1221 min
4/6/2026, 8:03:41 PM6 trades$25 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-06
04-13
04-20
04-27
05-04
05-11
05-18

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
99.7% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4.3% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 20.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.5 br/event