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@Limping-Shape

#15,50561

0x81035115a389a085e36255e5cb9b9ab8ee3723a1

43d· 1053 markets · 17496 tradesVol: $1,440,9242026-05-14T12:19
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

61
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 20%0/20
Profit Factor 1.64x11/15
Sharpe 0.3286/15
Sortino 1.30810/10
EV $+0.65110/10
HHI 7810/10
Profit Days 48%4/10
DD/Peak 10%10/10

Summary

Limping-Shape is an active trader on Polymarket, ranked #15505 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $7,564.28. Over 39 days, they executed 17,496 trades across 799 markets, accumulating a total trading volume of nearly $1.44 million. Their smart score of 61/100 indicates solid performance, supported by a profit factor of 2.86 and a win rate of 55.3%, suggesting consistent profitability despite a modest Sharpe ratio of 0.33. Limping-Shape’s portfolio value stands at $735.11, reflecting a stable equity trend with minimal drawdowns.

The trader exclusively focuses on weather markets, showing a specialized and niche trading preference. Their risk profile appears balanced; they maintain a low sell percentage of 3%, which aligns with their diamond hands and dollar-cost averaging (DCA) style badges. Limping-Shape’s trading approach combines semi-automated strategies with manual input, as indicated by a bot score of 65/100. This hybrid model likely supports timely entries and exits while managing exposure conservatively, emphasizing steady gains over aggressive risk-taking.

Limping-Shape’s key strengths include consistent profitability and a disciplined, contrarian trading style that benefits from patience and systematic scaling into positions. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio and flat equity trend suggest limited upside volatility, which may constrain growth potential. Additionally, their exclusive concentration in weather markets could expose them to sector-specific risks. Overall, Limping-Shape demonstrates reliable, data-driven trading habits on Polymarket but may benefit from diversification to mitigate market-specific vulnerabilities.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+7,564
Lottery Player
97% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
99% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
3% sell
DCA Master
avg 21.2 entries/market
Weather Pro
100% weather
Hedger
avg 2.5 brackets/event
Win Streak
7 wins in a row
Cool Head
DD 10%

Categories

1
🌤️ WEATHER#175$7,564Vol: $1,440,924

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$7,564
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,440,924
Total Redeem
$58
Portfolio
$735
Predictions
1053
total markets
Trades
16906B / 590S
Daily Volume
$672
Account Age
43d
since Apr 5, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-272
Vol: $25,654
Week
$-822
Vol: $202,536
Month
$5,705
Vol: $565,579
All Time
$7,564
Vol: $1,440,924

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
24%
82W / 262L events
Realized PnL
$31,501
Win Rate
55%
21W / 17L
Profit Factor
2.86x
Avg Win
$271
Avg Loss
$-117

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $4,147 (111.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4?$3,392
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C or below on May 7?$430
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F $325
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 23?$254
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 6?$252
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 18?$251
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 19?$242
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 13?$200
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 13?$67
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F $60

Top Losers

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 15?$-531
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 17?$-337
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on April 24?$-238
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 14?$-158
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 8?$-147
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F $-93
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 27?$-92
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 19?$-87
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4?$-80
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 14?$-61

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.328
Sortino
1.308
HHI
78
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.651
Kelly %
47.6%
Half-Kelly
23.8%
Top-1 market
4.1%
Top-5 markets
12.9%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
456.3
Very active
Markets / Day
20.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
12:00 UTC
Median Gap
37s
between trades
Avg Gap
4.0m
between trades
Night Trading
8%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.01
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.7

Bot Detection

#6
65
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 37s — typical for humanSize CV 5.01 — diverse, typical for human8% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.09 — human randomness456 trades/day — automation21 markets/day — mass coverage1044 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 12:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
21.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
116 entries
<=2
167 entries
<=5
283 entries
<=10
383 entries
<=20
527 entries
<=50
707 entries
>50
92 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)96.8%
Mid (20-55c)2.5%
High (>55c)0.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 87.2%

London$2,755
Madrid$428
New York City$273
Paris$133
Cape Town$45
Miami$38
Beijing$28
Taipei$4
Chongqing$3
Chicago$0
Amsterdam$0
Munich$0
Shanghai$0
Shenzhen$0
Hong Kong$0
Milan$0
Busan$0
Istanbul$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2.5
Events covered
317

Moderate coverage

<=1
120 brackets
<=2
195 brackets
<=3
242 brackets
<=4
269 brackets
<=5
294 brackets
<=8
315 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/6/2026, 4:09:21 AM1 trades$20 min
4/6/2026, 7:58:53 AM1 trades$60 min
4/6/2026, 8:56:59 AM1 trades$00 min
4/6/2026, 9:22:51 AM2 trades$04 min
4/6/2026, 9:32:49 AM6 trades$172 min
4/6/2026, 10:34:21 AM1 trades$290 min
4/6/2026, 10:51:53 AM1 trades$70 min
4/6/2026, 11:53:27 AM2 trades$363 min
4/6/2026, 12:16:29 PM1 trades$190 min
4/6/2026, 12:35:31 PM1 trades$180 min
4/6/2026, 1:58:29 PM1 trades$40 min
4/6/2026, 2:57:55 PM1 trades$100 min
4/6/2026, 3:14:43 PM1 trades$200 min
4/6/2026, 3:19:49 PM1 trades$10 min
4/6/2026, 4:43:31 PM9 trades$1505 min
4/6/2026, 5:59:43 PM9 trades$72 min
4/6/2026, 6:09:39 PM2 trades$20 min
4/6/2026, 7:22:19 PM8 trades$123 min
4/6/2026, 7:36:59 PM27 trades$1221 min
4/6/2026, 8:03:41 PM6 trades$25 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-06
04-12
04-18
04-24
04-30
05-06
05-12

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
WEATHER
100% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
3.4% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 21.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2.5 br/event