Polydata
Linear-Initiative

@Linear-Initiative

#1,51554

0xad9c94a65d1f053b8bb31815865a0d4c64b69889

3d· 5 markets · 29 tradesVol: $1,364,2902026-06-05T22:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

54
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 20%0/20
Profit Factor 21.03x15/15
Sharpe 0.4699/15
Sortino 22.49510/10
EV $+0.93910/10
HHI 50610/10
Profit Days 25%0/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Linear-Initiative is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranked #1515 on the global PnL leaderboard. Over 29 days, they have executed 29 trades across five markets, generating a net profit of $105,160.94 on a total volume of approximately $1.36 million. Their portfolio is currently valued at $107,607.69, reflecting consistent profitability despite a relatively low win rate of 33.3%.

The trading style of Linear-Initiative appears to be contrarian and high risk, as suggested by their badges and a profit factor of 121.16, indicating high returns relative to losses. They maintain a balanced sell percentage of 45%, and their Sharpe ratio of 0.47 points to moderate risk-adjusted returns. The trader does not engage in weather markets and operates manually rather than using bots. Their activity is concentrated in a small number of markets, which may suggest a focused strategy or preference for specific event types.

Linear-Initiative’s key strength lies in their ability to generate substantial profits with relatively few trades and a contrarian approach, which can capitalize on market inefficiencies. However, the low win rate and moderate Sharpe ratio indicate that their strategy may involve periods of volatility and risk. The absence of drawdown duration suggests resilience, but the limited data on equity trends calls for cautious interpretation of long-term consistency.

Badges

5
Profitable
PnL $+105,161
Contrarian
100% entries <$0.50
Whale
$180,045
High Roller
$6,208/day
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

2
SPORTS#642$107,669Vol: $682,166
CRYPTO#1,542,339$-2,508Vol: $682,124

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$105,161
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$1,364,290
Total Redeem
$0
Portfolio
$107,608
Predictions
5
total markets
Trades
16B / 13S
Daily Volume
$6,208
Account Age
3d
since Jun 2, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-2,741
Vol: $331,101
Week
$105,161
Vol: $1,364,290
Month
$105,161
Vol: $1,364,290
All Time
$105,161
Vol: $1,364,290

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
20%
1W / 4L events
Realized PnL
$109,499
Win Rate
33%
1W / 2L
Profit Factor
121.16x
Avg Win
$110,410
Avg Loss
$-456

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $110,410 (100.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Knicks vs. Spurs$110,410

Top Losers

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$-461
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$-451

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.469
Sortino
22.495
HHI
5061
Concentrated
EV per $1
$0.939
Kelly %
22.0%
Half-Kelly
11.0%
Top-1 market
61.3%
Top-5 markets
100%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
9.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.6
Active Hours
5/24
Normal
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
32s
between trades
Avg Gap
2.3h
between trades
Night Trading
14%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.16
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
7
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
4.1

Bot Detection

#6
0
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
LOW
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 32s — typical for humanSize CV 2.16 — diverse, typical for human14% at night — normal sleep pattern5/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 1.20 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
0 entries
<=2
1 entries
<=5
5 entries
<=10
5 entries
<=20
5 entries
<=50
5 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)25%
Mid (20-55c)75%
High (>55c)0%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 56.9%

Other$109,499

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
5

Single bracket

<=1
5 brackets
<=2
5 brackets
<=3
5 brackets
<=4
5 brackets
<=5
5 brackets
<=8
5 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
6/2/2026, 4:09:00 PM3 trades$2,7020 min
6/2/2026, 4:34:12 PM12 trades$2,2411 min
6/2/2026, 4:40:56 PM8 trades$2,0485 min
6/4/2026, 12:23:52 AM2 trades$64,9471 min
6/4/2026, 3:16:55 AM1 trades$175,3570 min
6/5/2026, 2:01:57 AM1 trades$36,9020 min
6/5/2026, 9:26:49 PM2 trades$73,4471 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
06-02
06-04
06-06
07-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
44.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event