Polydata

@Lucky-Pear

#53,46857

0x843c0fdaab99f50aa1ebc7002e6e31cfdd0d4863

322d· 7933 markets · 8647 tradesVol: $10,053,6822026-07-30T04:16
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

57
Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 3%0/20
Profit Factor 47.31x15/15
Sharpe 0.0982/15
Sortino 1501.93010/10
EV $+23.17510/10
HHI 52510/10
Profit Days 32%1/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Lucky-Pear is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, ranking #53,468 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $1,925.12. Over 473 days, they have executed 8,647 trades across 6,785 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $10 million. Their portfolio value currently stands at $13,026, and their smart score of 57/100 reflects a good overall performance.

The trading style of Lucky-Pear leans toward a semi-automated approach, as indicated by their bot score of 55/100. They show a preference for weather-related markets, which make up 24% of their activity, and rarely engage in selling positions, with a sell rate of only 2%. Their win rate is relatively low at 25%, and the profit factor below 1 (0.94) suggests cautious risk-taking, while their upward equity trend indicates growing gains over time. They also demonstrate contrarian and hedging behaviors, balancing risk with a diamond hands mentality.

Lucky-Pear’s strengths lie in consistent volume and a solid upward portfolio trend, supported by a semi-bot strategy that blends automation with manual decisions. However, a low Sharpe ratio of 0.10 and a max drawdown duration of zero days highlight limited risk-adjusted returns and potential vulnerability to volatility. Their low win rate and profit factor below one may pose challenges in sustaining long-term profitability on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Profitable
PnL $+1,925
Lottery Player
100% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
100% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
2% sell
Hedger
avg 4.4 brackets/event
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
📈 ECONOMICS#2,090$1,837Vol: $7,542,461
🏛️ POLITICS#1,549,393$-168Vol: $2,257,914
SPORTS#319,905$6Vol: $137,702
CRYPTO#68,548$180Vol: $62,561
🌤️ WEATHER#223,396$-4Vol: $21,223
💰 FINANCE#575,404$-11Vol: $11,757
🎭 CULTURE#24,642$74Vol: $11,605
💻 TECH#183,595$-1Vol: $1,887
📢 MENTIONS#54,269$0Vol: $888

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,925
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$10,053,682
Total Redeem
$39
Portfolio
$13,026
Predictions
7933
total markets
Trades
8511B / 136S
Daily Volume
$0
Account Age
322d
since Sep 11, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-2
Vol: $6
Month
$-22
Vol: $2,171
All Time
$1,925
Vol: $10,053,682

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
3%
50W / 1557L events
Realized PnL
$303,505
Win Rate
25%
4W / 12L
Profit Factor
0.94x
Avg Win
$7
Avg Loss
$-2

Top Winners

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher wo$7
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C$7
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026?$7
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June?$6

Top Losers

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-16
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-11
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-2
Map 1: Odd/Even Total Rounds?$-0
Kraus vs. Akugue: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5$-0
Duncan/Ribero vs. Bianchi/Sheehy: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5$-0
Kraus vs. Akugue: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5$-0
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30?$-0
Norrie vs. Navone: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5$-0
ITF Gaborone: Tanisha Kashyap vs D'Estree Colalancia$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.098
Sortino
inf
HHI
525
Moderate
EV per $1
$23.174
Kelly %
24.9%
Half-Kelly
12.4%
Top-1 market
15.3%
Top-5 markets
39%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
28.4
Active
Markets / Day
22.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
6:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.1m
between trades
Avg Gap
10.8m
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
21.11
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 63s — typical for humanSize CV 21.12 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.95 — human randomness28 trades/day — suspiciously high22 markets/day — mass coverage7038 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 6:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
5487 entries
<=2
6388 entries
<=5
6725 entries
<=10
6741 entries
<=20
6741 entries
<=50
6741 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)100%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)0%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 84.8%

Atlanta$0
Sao Paulo$0
New York City$0
Buenos Aires$0
Toronto$0
Los Angeles$0
Miami$0
Hong Kong$0
Tokyo$0
Shanghai$0
Helsinki$0
Austin$0
Guangzhou$0
Jeddah$0
Tel Aviv$0
Warsaw$0
Paris$0
Kuala Lumpur$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
4.4
Events covered
1534

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
469 brackets
<=2
653 brackets
<=3
792 brackets
<=4
897 brackets
<=5
1017 brackets
<=8
1366 brackets
>8
168 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/28/2025, 2:27:45 PM1 trades$110 min
9/29/2025, 1:50:29 PM1 trades$10 min
10/3/2025, 2:04:20 PM1 trades$00 min
10/4/2025, 12:47:38 PM1 trades$10 min
10/6/2025, 2:11:15 PM1 trades$00 min
10/8/2025, 9:36:32 PM1 trades$10 min
10/9/2025, 2:50:07 PM1 trades$00 min
10/10/2025, 3:41:00 PM1 trades$10 min
10/12/2025, 3:16:25 PM1 trades$10 min
10/15/2025, 3:37:35 PM1 trades$10 min
10/20/2025, 4:41:43 PM1 trades$00 min
10/22/2025, 2:55:04 PM1 trades$00 min
10/23/2025, 12:06:59 PM1 trades$00 min
10/24/2025, 11:39:51 AM1 trades$00 min
10/27/2025, 3:01:17 PM1 trades$00 min
10/30/2025, 1:29:17 PM1 trades$00 min
11/1/2025, 9:49:52 AM1 trades$00 min
11/6/2025, 8:58:37 AM1 trades$20 min
11/7/2025, 9:01:51 AM1 trades$00 min
11/9/2025, 12:19:45 PM1 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-15
02-28
04-13
05-11
05-29
06-16
08-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
24.2% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 4.4 br/event