Polydata

@Lucky-Pear

#45,87552

0x843c0fdaab99f50aa1ebc7002e6e31cfdd0d4863

274d· 7035 markets · 7688 tradesVol: $10,032,4902026-06-12T15:42
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

52
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 6%0/20
Profit Factor 3402.52x15/15
Sharpe 0.1062/15
Sortino 2365.77010/10
EV $+3583.12710/10
HHI 98620/10
Profit Days 49%5/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Lucky-Pear is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, holding a global PnL rank of #45875 with a net profit of $2,126.68. Over 350 days, they executed 7,688 trades across 5,904 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $10 million. Their smart score of 52/100 indicates average trading skill, supported by a profit factor of 10813.00 and a 63.6% win rate. Despite a relatively low portfolio value of $242.71, their equity trend shows consistent upward growth.

The trader favors weather-related markets, which constitute 28% of their activity, and exhibits a contrarian and hedging trading style. Their low sell percentage (3%) combined with the "Diamond Hands" badge suggests a tendency to hold positions longer, reflecting a patient, semi-automated approach as indicated by a bot score of 55/100. Lucky-Pear’s Sharpe ratio of 0.11 and zero-day max drawdown duration imply moderate risk tolerance and effective drawdown management.

Lucky-Pear’s key strengths lie in their consistent profitability and disciplined risk controls, benefiting from a balanced blend of manual and bot-assisted decisions. However, the relatively low portfolio value and modest Sharpe ratio highlight potential limitations in capital scale and risk-adjusted returns. Their significant exposure to weather markets could also introduce sector-specific volatility risk, which traders should monitor closely.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

7
Profitable
PnL $+2,127
Lottery Player
100% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
100% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
3% sell
Hedger
avg 4.7 brackets/event
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

9
📈 ECONOMICS#1,798$1,832Vol: $7,542,215
🏛️ POLITICS#1,508,602$-161Vol: $2,242,610
SPORTS#115,582$82Vol: $135,821
CRYPTO#64,412$180Vol: $62,532
🌤️ WEATHER#211,828$-4Vol: $21,097
🎭 CULTURE#24,987$70Vol: $10,977
💰 FINANCE#546,468$-10Vol: $10,554
💻 TECH#153,611$-0Vol: $1,578
📢 MENTIONS#51,600$0Vol: $888

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$2,127
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$10,032,490
Total Redeem
$15,928
Portfolio
$243
Predictions
7035
total markets
Trades
7463B / 225S
Daily Volume
$45
Account Age
274d
since Sep 11, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-4
Vol: $255
Week
$22
Vol: $9,973
Month
$292
Vol: $716,866
All Time
$2,127
Vol: $10,032,490

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
9%
119W / 1233L events
Realized PnL
$303,473
Win Rate
64%
7W / 4L
Profit Factor
10813x
Avg Win
$62,202
Avg Loss
$-10

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $435,388 (100% of PnL)

Top Winners

US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$292,448
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$142,749
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$191
Exact Score: Júbilo Iwata 3 - 2 FC Ōsaka?$8
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher wo$7
Exact Score: Júbilo Iwata 3 - 3 FC Ōsaka?$7
Exact Score: Júbilo Iwata 2 - 3 FC Ōsaka?$6

Top Losers

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-16
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-14
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$-11
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 100,$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.106
Sortino
inf
HHI
9862
Concentrated
EV per $1
$3583.127
Kelly %
62.5%
Half-Kelly
31.2%
Top-1 market
99.3%
Top-5 markets
99.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
29.9
Active
Markets / Day
23.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
55s
between trades
Avg Gap
6.1m
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
85.79
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.8

Bot Detection

#6
55
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
MEDIUM
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 55s — typical for humanSize CV 85.79 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.96 — human randomness30 trades/day — suspiciously high23 markets/day — mass coverage6151 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
4716 entries
<=2
5536 entries
<=5
5843 entries
<=10
5858 entries
<=20
5858 entries
<=50
5858 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)99.9%
Mid (20-55c)0%
High (>55c)0.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 0.6%

Other$435,376
Atlanta$0
Sao Paulo$0
New York City$0
Buenos Aires$0
Toronto$0
Los Angeles$0
Miami$0
Hong Kong$0
Tokyo$0
Shanghai$0
Helsinki$0
Austin$0
Guangzhou$0
Jeddah$0
Tel Aviv$0
Warsaw$0
Paris$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
4.7
Events covered
1266

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
334 brackets
<=2
473 brackets
<=3
599 brackets
<=4
704 brackets
<=5
809 brackets
<=8
1116 brackets
>8
150 brackets

Sessions

#12
9/28/2025, 2:27:45 PM1 trades$110 min
9/29/2025, 1:50:29 PM1 trades$10 min
10/3/2025, 2:04:20 PM1 trades$00 min
10/4/2025, 12:47:38 PM1 trades$10 min
10/6/2025, 2:11:15 PM1 trades$00 min
10/8/2025, 9:36:32 PM1 trades$10 min
10/9/2025, 2:50:07 PM1 trades$00 min
10/10/2025, 3:41:00 PM1 trades$10 min
10/12/2025, 3:16:25 PM1 trades$10 min
10/15/2025, 3:37:35 PM1 trades$10 min
10/20/2025, 4:41:43 PM1 trades$00 min
10/22/2025, 2:55:04 PM1 trades$00 min
10/23/2025, 12:06:59 PM1 trades$00 min
10/24/2025, 11:39:51 AM1 trades$00 min
10/27/2025, 3:01:17 PM1 trades$00 min
10/30/2025, 1:29:17 PM1 trades$00 min
11/1/2025, 9:49:52 AM1 trades$00 min
11/6/2025, 8:58:37 AM1 trades$20 min
11/7/2025, 9:01:51 AM1 trades$00 min
11/9/2025, 12:19:45 PM1 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
09-15
01-26
04-10
05-14
05-29
06-12
06-13
07-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
27.8% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
2.9% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 4.7 br/event