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@Lumbering-Restriction

#2,37482

0xcc7b6376adee4c5720512cf1797c12d708468606

553d· 36 markets · 50 tradesVol: $144,1692026-06-12T04:14
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

82
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 94%20/20
Profit Factor 65855.37x15/15
Sharpe 0.3777/15
Sortino 4960.86710/10
EV $+0.91910/10
HHI 28990/10
Profit Days 89%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Lumbering-Restriction is an experienced Polymarket trader ranked #2374 globally with a net profit of $66,249.50. Over 437 days, they have completed 50 trades across 36 markets, accumulating a total volume of $144,169. Their smart score of 82/100 reflects very good trading performance, supported by a high win rate of 94.4%. Despite a modest Sharpe ratio of 0.38, their profit factor is exceptionally high at 65,855, indicating strong profitability relative to losses.

Lumbering-Restriction demonstrates a selective trading style, preferring a wide range of markets but with minimal exposure to weather markets (3%). They hold positions for short durations, as indicated by a zero-day max drawdown duration, and rarely sell (4%), aligning with a “diamond hands” approach. The trader appears to be a cautious, manual operator with a focus on high-conviction trades, supported by badges like "Sniper" and "Win Streak." Their portfolio value is currently zero, suggesting closed or realized positions.

Key strengths for Lumbering-Restriction include consistency and high accuracy, as evidenced by their strong win rate and upward equity trend. Their low drawdown duration reduces risk from prolonged losses. However, the relatively low Sharpe ratio hints at moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the small number of trades may limit diversification. Overall, Lumbering-Restriction is a skilled Polymarket trader with a disciplined, patient strategy but should be mindful of concentration risks.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 94%
Profitable
PnL $+66,250
Diamond Hands
4% sell
Win Streak
18 wins in a row
Whale
$72,113
Consistent
17/19 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

6
CRYPTO#526$65,993Vol: $132,035
SPORTS#67,758$256Vol: $12,110
🏛️ POLITICS#489,938$0Vol: $8
📈 ECONOMICS#209,830$0Vol: $6
🎭 CULTURE#312,917$0Vol: $6
🌤️ WEATHER#121,156$0Vol: $3

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$66,250
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$144,169
Total Redeem
$132,584
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
36
total markets
Trades
48B / 2S
Daily Volume
$165
Account Age
553d
since Dec 26, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$0
Vol: $0
Week
$0
Vol: $0
Month
$0
Vol: $0
All Time
$66,250
Vol: $144,169

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
92%
22W / 2L events
Realized PnL
$66,250
Win Rate
94%
34W / 2L
Profit Factor
65855.37x
Avg Win
$1,949
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $58,158 (87.8% of PnL)

Top Winners

Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 4AM ET$33,257
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 2PM ET$16,629
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5AM ET$8,273
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3PM ET$4,178
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 8AM ET$2,079
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 4AM ET$1,045
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 1PM ET$528
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)$257
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12PM ET$7
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?$0

Top Losers

Warriors vs. Nets$-1
Will another player win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.378
Sortino
inf
HHI
2899
Concentrated
EV per $1
$0.919
Kelly %
94.4%
Half-Kelly
47.2%
Top-1 market
46.1%
Top-5 markets
94.5%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.1
Active Hours
16/24
Extended
Peak Hour
10:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
3.0h
between trades
Night Trading
32%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
3.22
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
29
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 260s — typical for humanSize CV 3.22 — diverse, typical for human32% at night — bot never sleeps16/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 0.79 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 10:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
31 entries
<=2
34 entries
<=5
35 entries
<=10
36 entries
<=20
36 entries
<=50
36 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0%
Mid (20-55c)43.8%
High (>55c)56.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 21%

Other$66,249
New York City$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.5
Events covered
24

Single bracket

<=1
17 brackets
<=2
21 brackets
<=3
23 brackets
<=4
23 brackets
<=5
24 brackets
<=8
24 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/29/2024, 2:12:21 AM3 trades$11,5572 min
1/11/2025, 10:29:07 AM1 trades$10 min
1/11/2025, 10:34:24 AM3 trades$49 min
1/11/2025, 10:49:38 AM7 trades$910 min
2/13/2025, 3:50:58 AM1 trades$60 min
2/14/2025, 4:37:50 PM1 trades$30 min
2/18/2025, 12:59:43 AM1 trades$20 min
2/18/2025, 8:46:22 AM1 trades$30 min
2/27/2025, 4:34:57 AM1 trades$50 min
3/5/2025, 4:39:25 PM1 trades$20 min
3/6/2025, 2:29:19 AM1 trades$20 min
3/6/2025, 4:47:14 AM1 trades$10 min
3/14/2025, 11:35:06 PM1 trades$30 min
3/14/2025, 11:46:34 PM1 trades$40 min
3/30/2025, 5:01:09 PM1 trades$20 min
4/9/2025, 4:54:11 AM1 trades$70 min
5/20/2025, 7:53:26 AM1 trades$50 min
5/20/2025, 2:25:08 PM1 trades$50 min
7/17/2025, 9:03:04 AM1 trades$70 min
7/22/2025, 6:08:32 AM1 trades$30 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-20
01-29
02-15
03-31
08-01
02-27
03-02

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
2.8% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
4% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.5 br/event