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@Market-Ninja

#124,92539

0x3affa022bf6bf46535a20de64ac2edc82840e200

534d· 136 markets · 397 tradesVol: $29,9692026-06-03T01:30
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

39
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 50%10/20
Profit Factor 1.40x7/15
Sharpe 0.0872/15
Sortino 0.1642/10
EV $+0.0533/10
HHI 19410/10
Profit Days 45%4/10
DD/Peak 57%3/10

Summary

Market-Ninja is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 397 trades placed across 136 markets over 741 days. Their net profit stands at $340.44, ranking them #124,925 globally by PnL. Despite a substantial total volume near $30,000, their portfolio value has declined to $15.13, reflecting a downward equity trend. Their overall Smart Score of 39/100 indicates below-average trading effectiveness compared to peers.

This trader exhibits a contrarian style with a near 49% win rate and a profit factor of 1.40, suggesting slightly more profitable trades than losses. Market-Ninja avoids weather markets entirely and prefers holding positions rather than selling frequently, with only 23% of trades involving sells. Their Sharpe ratio is very low at 0.09, indicating minimal risk-adjusted returns. The zero-day max drawdown duration implies they manage to avoid prolonged losing streaks, but the Bot Score of 30/100 suggests fast decision-making likely by a human rather than automated trading.

Market-Ninja’s strengths include consistent trading activity and a modest profit factor that keeps them profitable on Polymarket. However, their below-average Smart Score, declining portfolio value, and low Sharpe ratio highlight risks related to strategy effectiveness and risk management. Their contrarian approach may yield occasional wins but also exposes them to volatility without strong downside protection.

Badges

4
Profitable
PnL $+340
Lottery Player
37% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
61% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
22 wins in a row

Categories

8
💰 FINANCE#586,714$-58Vol: $8,509
🏛️ POLITICS#1,496,806$-200Vol: $5,994
₿ CRYPTO#1,400,315$-143Vol: $5,974
🎭 CULTURE#9,284$366Vol: $4,292
⚽ SPORTS#56,481$413Vol: $3,438
📈 ECONOMICS#391,514$-0Vol: $1,322
💻 TECH#124,026$-0Vol: $200
🌤️ WEATHER#251,084$-38Vol: $140

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$340
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$29,969
Total Redeem
$5,616
Portfolio
$15
Predictions
136
total markets
Trades
305B / 92S
Daily Volume
$12
Account Age
534d
since Dec 19, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-0
Vol: $0
Week
$-5
Vol: $0
Month
$-5
Vol: $0
All Time
$340
Vol: $29,969

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
51%
59W / 57L events
Realized PnL
$361
Win Rate
49%
65W / 67L
Profit Factor
1.4x
Avg Win
$24
Avg Loss
$-17

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $754 (169.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?$374
Will Usyk beat Fury?$220
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2$160
Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?$129
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of February?$115
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January?$112
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milan$60
Will Ukraine win on 2025-11-16?$46
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven$31
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meetin$25

Top Losers

Will Norway finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?$-166
Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?$-112
US government shutdown Saturday?$-59
Jets vs. Sharks$-41
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of January?$-41
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025$-38
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of January?$-33
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?$-33
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?$-31
Senators vs. Jets$-30

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.087
Sortino
0.164
HHI
194
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.053
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.9%
Top-5 markets
23.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
0.8
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.3
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.8m
between trades
Avg Gap
2.0h
between trades
Night Trading
27%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.99
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
0 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.4

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 408s — typical for humanSize CV 1.99 — diverse, typical for human27% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.00 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
2.2
Moderate DCA
<=1
86 entries
<=2
110 entries
<=5
131 entries
<=10
134 entries
<=20
135 entries
<=50
135 entries
>50
1 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)36.7%
Mid (20-55c)28.2%
High (>55c)35.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 46.1%

Other$411
Milan$60
Miami$0
Houston$-10
Taipei$-16

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
119

Single bracket

<=1
103 brackets
<=2
118 brackets
<=3
119 brackets
<=4
119 brackets
<=5
119 brackets
<=8
119 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/20/2024, 1:36:16 PM1 trades$3000 min
12/21/2024, 11:56:15 PM1 trades$5200 min
5/17/2025, 5:16:22 PM1 trades$1000 min
5/17/2025, 6:14:39 PM2 trades$2001 min
5/17/2025, 7:11:51 PM1 trades$860 min
5/17/2025, 7:27:52 PM2 trades$1302 min
5/17/2025, 7:50:02 PM1 trades$430 min
5/17/2025, 10:49:59 PM1 trades$370 min
5/18/2025, 12:08:47 AM2 trades$3510 min
5/31/2025, 6:46:15 PM1 trades$1000 min
5/31/2025, 9:14:49 PM1 trades$1600 min
7/12/2025, 7:27:03 PM1 trades$4560 min
7/13/2025, 4:54:01 AM1 trades$500 min
7/19/2025, 3:32:00 AM1 trades$200 min
7/20/2025, 11:36:45 PM3 trades$212 min
10/24/2025, 10:08:04 PM1 trades$190 min
10/28/2025, 11:13:59 PM1 trades$100 min
10/29/2025, 5:49:11 PM1 trades$180 min
10/30/2025, 11:49:47 PM1 trades$350 min
10/31/2025, 2:25:00 PM2 trades$1011 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
09-30
11-15
11-29
12-30
02-27
12-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
23.2% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 2.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event