Polydata

@Medical-Reflection

#2,825,15316

0x82b69cf9f33f5bc7411c3a1740f88e1f7bbb57be

133d· 98 markets · 152 tradesVol: $56,0232026-07-17T23:45
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

16
Beginner
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 37%4/20
Profit Factor 0.91x1/15
HHI 15410/10
Profit Days 35%1/10
DD/Peak 174%0/10

Summary

Medical-Reflection is a relatively new and moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 152 trades across 98 markets over 102 days. Despite a high win rate of 70%, their overall net PnL stands at negative $551.78, positioning them at rank #2,825,153 globally. Their total trading volume of $56,023 indicates consistent engagement, but their portfolio value is currently zero, reflecting recent losses or closed positions.

This trader appears to favor a contrarian strategy, as hinted by their badge, and tends to hold a moderate risk profile with a profit factor of 4.42, suggesting that winning trades are significantly more profitable than losing ones. Medical-Reflection does not trade weather markets and sells around 30% of positions, implying some flexibility in timing. However, the Sharpe ratio of -0.06 and a declining equity trend point to challenges in risk-adjusted returns and overall performance stability.

Medical-Reflection’s key strength lies in their high win rate and ability to generate profitable trades consistently, which is promising for a beginner. On the downside, their negative net PnL and downward equity trend raise concerns about capital management and sustainability. Their status as likely a human trader with a beginner smart score reflects room for growth in strategic sophistication within Polymarket’s competitive environment.

Badges

2
Contrarian
71% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
23 wins in a row

Categories

2
SPORTS#39,174$944Vol: $48,655
CRYPTO#1,484,095$-140Vol: $265

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-552
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$56,023
Total Redeem
$1,490
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
98
total markets
Trades
106B / 46S
Daily Volume
$107
Account Age
133d
since Mar 6, 2026

Periods

#2
Month
$-0
Vol: $0
All Time
$-552
Vol: $56,023

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
38%
32W / 52L events
Realized PnL
$4,758
Win Rate
70%
35W / 15L
Profit Factor
4.42x
Avg Win
$162
Avg Loss
$-86

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,346 (30.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?$467
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-16?$462
Warriors vs. Clippers$418
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Leylah Fernandez vs Zeynep Sonmez$333
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-15?$329
Will CA Boca Juniors vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?$306
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18?$293
Hornets vs. Magic$275
Tallahassee: Daniil Glinka vs Darwin Blanch$211
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$200

Top Losers

Spread: Clippers (-3.5)$-343
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Veron$-195
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16?$-191
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$-130
Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5$-75
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5$-52
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs$-51
Games Total: O/U 2.5$-49
Games Total: O/U 2.5$-48
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)$-34

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.057
Sortino
-0.075
HHI
154
Diversified
EV per $1
$-0.110
Kelly %
56.6%
Half-Kelly
28.3%
Top-1 market
3.6%
Top-5 markets
15.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
3.6
Moderate
Markets / Day
2.3
Active Hours
18/24
Extended
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
11.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.5h
between trades
Night Trading
35%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.76
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.6

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 698s — typical for humanSize CV 0.76 — diverse, typical for human35% at night — bot never sleeps18/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.80 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
90 entries
<=2
98 entries
<=5
98 entries
<=10
98 entries
<=20
98 entries
<=50
98 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)18.9%
Mid (20-55c)61.3%
High (>55c)19.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 86.4%

Other$4,181
São Paulo$218
Chicago$0
San Francisco$0
Paris$0
Atlanta$0
Madrid$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.2
Events covered
84

Single bracket

<=1
71 brackets
<=2
83 brackets
<=3
84 brackets
<=4
84 brackets
<=5
84 brackets
<=8
84 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/9/2026, 3:47:39 AM1 trades$1450 min
4/9/2026, 4:19:07 AM1 trades$2800 min
4/9/2026, 5:58:13 AM8 trades$2725 min
4/9/2026, 7:06:01 AM1 trades$450 min
4/9/2026, 4:19:03 PM1 trades$1300 min
4/13/2026, 2:22:43 AM1 trades$3430 min
4/15/2026, 10:38:46 PM1 trades$950 min
4/16/2026, 12:20:00 AM1 trades$4240 min
4/16/2026, 1:17:02 AM2 trades$520 min
4/16/2026, 2:32:52 AM1 trades$2270 min
4/16/2026, 2:48:04 AM1 trades$950 min
4/16/2026, 4:49:14 AM1 trades$5130 min
4/16/2026, 3:38:14 PM1 trades$1950 min
4/16/2026, 4:48:44 PM1 trades$2430 min
4/16/2026, 5:25:44 PM1 trades$1910 min
4/16/2026, 5:39:32 PM1 trades$330 min
4/16/2026, 6:13:16 PM1 trades$960 min
4/16/2026, 6:45:26 PM3 trades$4942 min
4/16/2026, 6:56:56 PM1 trades$1080 min
4/16/2026, 7:25:12 PM1 trades$140 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-09
04-17
04-23
05-06
05-12
05-19
06-02

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
30.3% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.2 br/event