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@Medium-Cacao

#2,220,11998

0x2792d952e1bda5ce698c52e93d9282e6dfc36891

53d· 791 markets · 687 tradesVol: $8,8972026-05-14T14:45
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

98
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 16.87x15/15
Sharpe 0.68613/15
Sortino 8561.38710/10
EV $+0.52810/10
HHI 4810/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Medium-Cacao is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, having participated in 687 trades across 471 markets over 56 days. Despite a negative net PnL of $-80.50, the trader holds an elite Smart Score of 98/100 and ranks #2,220,119 globally by profit and loss. Their total trading volume is $8,897, and their portfolio value currently sits at zero.

Medium-Cacao demonstrates a focused and consistent trading style, favoring a high win rate of 95.9% and a strong profit factor of 16.87, indicating efficient risk-reward management. The trader’s low sell percentage of 21% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.69 suggest a moderately conservative risk profile. Engagement with weather markets is minimal at 2%, implying preference for other categories. Their bot score of 45/100 reflects a hybrid approach combining automated and manual strategies.

The main strengths of Medium-Cacao include an impressive win streak, sniper badge, and consistent equity growth, indicating disciplined execution and timing. However, a net negative PnL and a zero portfolio value raise concerns about capital management or withdrawal timing. The short maximum drawdown duration of zero days points to quick recovery from losses, but the overall negative returns highlight a need to reassess long-term profitability despite strong short-term indicators.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Win Streak
106 wins in a row
Consistent
23/24 days
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

7
CRYPTO#1,259,238$-52Vol: $6,164
📈 ECONOMICS#472,114$-1Vol: $904
🌤️ WEATHER#214,384$-9Vol: $825
SPORTS#1,277,810$-16Vol: $545
🎭 CULTURE#520,891$-1Vol: $242
🏛️ POLITICS#690,674$-0Vol: $150
💰 FINANCE#359,256$-0Vol: $58

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-81
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$8,897
Total Redeem
$455
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
791
total markets
Trades
542B / 145S
Daily Volume
$11
Account Age
53d
since Mar 27, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $0
Month
$-1
Vol: $92
All Time
$-81
Vol: $8,897

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
249W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$224
Win Rate
96%
280W / 12L
Profit Factor
16.87x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $19 (9.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

LoL: Arctic Pandas vs NightBirds (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C$8
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$7
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev$4
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$4
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-03-13?$4
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$4
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$3
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$3
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$3
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET$3

Top Losers

Kigali 2: Marco Cecchinato vs Andrej Martin$-8
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies$-1
LoL: Witchcraft vs Baam Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$-0
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$-0
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$-0
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$-0
XRP Up or Down - March 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.686
Sortino
inf
HHI
49
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.528
Kelly %
94.3%
Half-Kelly
47.2%
Top-1 market
5.2%
Top-5 markets
7.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
12.3
Active
Markets / Day
8.4
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
18:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
33.0m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.17
Very consistent
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.5

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
HIGH
Market Coverage
MEDIUM
Median gap 270s — typical for humanSize CV 0.17 — templated orders19% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.18 — human randomness12 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 18:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
436 entries
<=2
464 entries
<=5
470 entries
<=10
470 entries
<=20
470 entries
<=50
471 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)10.5%
Mid (20-55c)36.3%
High (>55c)53.1%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 49.1%

Other$202
Seoul$2
Atlanta$1
Austin$1
Shenzhen$0
Miami$0
Beijing$0
Hong Kong$0
Busan$0
Toronto$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
463

Single bracket

<=1
456 brackets
<=2
462 brackets
<=3
463 brackets
<=4
463 brackets
<=5
463 brackets
<=8
463 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/4/2026, 2:45:27 PM10 trades$107 min
3/4/2026, 3:13:47 PM5 trades$61 min
3/4/2026, 3:21:01 PM9 trades$116 min
3/4/2026, 3:37:17 PM9 trades$115 min
3/4/2026, 3:50:45 PM1 trades$10 min
3/4/2026, 4:59:09 PM10 trades$122 min
3/4/2026, 5:31:31 PM21 trades$2623 min
3/4/2026, 5:59:55 PM12 trades$1511 min
3/4/2026, 6:16:23 PM5 trades$71 min
3/4/2026, 6:26:39 PM42 trades$4944 min
3/4/2026, 7:28:01 PM8 trades$99 min
3/4/2026, 7:41:57 PM4 trades$52 min
3/4/2026, 8:01:23 PM13 trades$147 min
3/4/2026, 9:16:27 PM5 trades$66 min
3/4/2026, 9:32:03 PM2 trades$30 min
3/4/2026, 9:40:41 PM1 trades$10 min
3/13/2026, 6:48:03 AM37 trades$373 min
3/13/2026, 12:39:27 PM13 trades$131 min
3/13/2026, 12:53:17 PM2 trades$20 min
3/13/2026, 1:52:55 PM3 trades$01 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-04
03-16
03-20
03-30
04-14
04-21

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
2.3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
21.1% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event