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@Medium-Cacao

#2,355,93197

0x2792d952e1bda5ce698c52e93d9282e6dfc36891

111d· 839 markets · 974 tradesVol: $9,9492026-06-27T09:01
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

97
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 7.43x15/15
Sharpe 0.64712/15
Sortino 9616.04510/10
EV $+0.36710/10
HHI 7610/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 3%10/10

Summary

Medium-Cacao is an active trader on Polymarket with 974 trades across 496 markets over 104 days. Despite a negative net PnL of $-74.15 and a global rank of #2,355,931, they maintain a high Smart Score of 97/100, indicating elite trading skills. Their total volume traded is nearly $10,000, and their portfolio value currently stands at zero, suggesting they may be closing positions regularly.

This trader shows a preference for a broad range of markets with minimal exposure to weather-related events (3%). Medium-Cacao exhibits a low sell percentage (17%) and a strong win rate of 94.1%, supported by a profit factor of 7.43. Their trading style appears selective and consistent, favoring timing that avoids prolonged drawdowns, as evidenced by a max drawdown duration of zero days. The Sharpe ratio of 0.65 indicates moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the low bot score suggests a human-driven, fast interface approach.

Medium-Cacao’s strengths lie in their consistent, sniper-like precision and a cool-headed, contrarian strategy that has produced a clear upward equity trend. However, the negative net PnL and zero portfolio value raise concerns about capital management or recent losing streaks. Their elite Smart Score and strong performance metrics on Polymarket offer potential for recovery if they adjust risk or position sizing.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Contrarian
51% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
101 wins in a row
Consistent
27/28 days
Cool Head
DD 3%

Categories

7
CRYPTO#1,316,652$-43Vol: $7,111
🌤️ WEATHER#240,572$-12Vol: $930
📈 ECONOMICS#488,573$-1Vol: $904
SPORTS#1,262,135$-9Vol: $423
🎭 CULTURE#535,312$-1Vol: $242
🏛️ POLITICS#713,727$-0Vol: $150
💰 FINANCE#377,950$-0Vol: $58

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-74
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$9,949
Total Redeem
$854
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
839
total markets
Trades
806B / 168S
Daily Volume
$9
Account Age
111d
since Mar 27, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $0
Month
$5
Vol: $1,052
All Time
$-74
Vol: $9,949

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
249W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$410
Win Rate
94%
289W / 18L
Profit Factor
7.43x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-2

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $34 (12.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$14
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$9
LoL: Arctic Pandas vs NightBirds (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$7
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$6

Top Losers

Kigali 2: Marco Cecchinato vs Andrej Martin$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$-7
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$-5
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$-2
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies$-1
LoL: Witchcraft vs Baam Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D$-1

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.647
Sortino
inf
HHI
76
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.366
Kelly %
90.9%
Half-Kelly
45.4%
Top-1 market
3.2%
Top-5 markets
12.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
9.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
4.8
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.6m
between trades
Avg Gap
27.0m
between trades
Night Trading
12%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
0.35
Moderate
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.5

Bot Detection

#6
25
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
MEDIUM
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 99s — typical for humanSize CV 0.35 — uniform orders12% at night — normal sleep pattern24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.16 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.6
Single entry
<=1
425 entries
<=2
456 entries
<=5
473 entries
<=10
487 entries
<=20
495 entries
<=50
496 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)7.6%
Mid (20-55c)49.3%
High (>55c)43.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 57.6%

Other$264
Seoul$3
Atlanta$1
Austin$1
Shenzhen$0
Qingdao$0
Miami$0
Beijing$0
Hong Kong$0
Busan$0
Toronto$0
Chengdu$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
488

Single bracket

<=1
481 brackets
<=2
487 brackets
<=3
488 brackets
<=4
488 brackets
<=5
488 brackets
<=8
488 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/4/2026, 2:45:27 PM10 trades$107 min
3/4/2026, 3:13:47 PM5 trades$61 min
3/4/2026, 3:21:01 PM9 trades$116 min
3/4/2026, 3:37:17 PM9 trades$115 min
3/4/2026, 3:50:45 PM1 trades$10 min
3/4/2026, 4:59:09 PM10 trades$122 min
3/4/2026, 5:31:31 PM21 trades$2623 min
3/4/2026, 5:59:55 PM12 trades$1511 min
3/4/2026, 6:16:23 PM5 trades$71 min
3/4/2026, 6:26:39 PM42 trades$4944 min
3/4/2026, 7:28:01 PM8 trades$99 min
3/4/2026, 7:41:57 PM4 trades$52 min
3/4/2026, 8:01:23 PM13 trades$147 min
3/4/2026, 9:16:27 PM5 trades$66 min
3/4/2026, 9:32:03 PM2 trades$30 min
3/4/2026, 9:40:41 PM1 trades$10 min
3/13/2026, 6:48:03 AM37 trades$373 min
3/13/2026, 12:39:27 PM13 trades$131 min
3/13/2026, 12:53:17 PM2 trades$20 min
3/13/2026, 1:52:55 PM3 trades$01 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
03-04
03-16
03-20
03-30
04-14
04-21
06-08

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
3% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
17.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.6/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event