Polydata

@Messy-Vellum

#116,21794

0xe716f3416db665f87f19c721d0bfa36caed31450

640d· 643 markets · 646 tradesVol: $100,462 @oxdilip2026-06-26T09:27
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

94
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 100%20/20
Profit Factor 121.14x15/15
Sharpe 0.4759/15
Sortino 154.92410/10
EV $+0.70710/10
HHI 7810/10
Profit Days 93%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Messy-Vellum is an experienced and highly active trader on Polymarket, with 646 trades across 517 markets over 323 days. Ranked #116217 globally on the PnL leaderboard, they have achieved a net profit of $440.02 on a total trading volume exceeding $100,000. Their smart score of 94/100 places them in the elite category, reflecting consistent performance despite a modest portfolio value currently at zero.

The trading style of Messy-Vellum is characterized by a very high win rate of 96.5% and a remarkable profit factor of 121.14, indicating highly efficient trade execution and risk management. Their approach appears to be low risk, supported by a minimal max drawdown duration and a stable equity trend. They engage primarily in manual trading, as evidenced by a low bot score, and maintain a conservative sell percentage of 12%. Timing-wise, their trades do not show significant volatility, pointing to a disciplined, steady strategy rather than rapid speculation.

Messy-Vellum’s strengths lie in their consistency, precision, and disciplined risk controls, earning badges like Sniper and Cool Head. Their stable equity and low drawdowns enhance resilience in fluctuating markets. However, the flat equity trend and zero portfolio value might signal limited capital growth or withdrawal of funds, which could constrain future scalability. Additionally, their very conservative style may limit upside potential in higher volatility scenarios on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

5
Sniper
Win Rate 100%
Profitable
PnL $+440
Win Streak
135 wins in a row
Consistent
25/27 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

5
CRYPTO#28,430$1,051Vol: $95,226
🎭 CULTURE#667,465$-9Vol: $2,782
SPORTS#1,686,627$-601Vol: $2,144
🏛️ POLITICS#760,959$-0Vol: $289
💰 FINANCE#364,143$-0Vol: $22

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$440
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$100,462
Total Redeem
$38,097
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
643
total markets
Trades
567B / 79S
Daily Volume
$117
Account Age
640d
since Sep 24, 2024

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $0
Month
$-2
Vol: $1,716
All Time
$440
Vol: $100,462

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
100%
249W / 0L events
Realized PnL
$16,931
Win Rate
97%
279W / 10L
Profit Factor
121.14x
Avg Win
$60
Avg Loss
$-14

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,564 (9.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$550
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$516
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?$498
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$480
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$436
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$381
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$378
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$348
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET$332
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$321

Top Losers

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$-81
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$-37
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch?$-8
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET$-6
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$-2
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$-1
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.475
Sortino
154.924
HHI
78
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.707
Kelly %
96.0%
Half-Kelly
48.0%
Top-1 market
2.8%
Top-5 markets
11.4%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
5.4
Moderate
Markets / Day
4.3
Active Hours
15/24
Extended
Peak Hour
9:00 UTC
Median Gap
5.0m
between trades
Avg Gap
29.5m
between trades
Night Trading
16%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.74
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
5 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.2

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
MEDIUM
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 298s — typical for humanSize CV 1.74 — diverse, typical for human16% at night — different timezone?15/24 hours — normal hoursSession CV 0.66 — semi-mechanical

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 9:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.1
Single entry
<=1
476 entries
<=2
509 entries
<=5
517 entries
<=10
517 entries
<=20
517 entries
<=50
517 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)1.8%
Mid (20-55c)69.3%
High (>55c)28.9%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 90.1%

Other$16,578

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
513

Single bracket

<=1
510 brackets
<=2
512 brackets
<=3
513 brackets
<=4
513 brackets
<=5
513 brackets
<=8
513 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/7/2026, 7:29:41 AM1 trades$6060 min
2/8/2026, 12:46:29 PM1 trades$7880 min
2/12/2026, 8:26:23 AM2 trades$35 min
2/12/2026, 8:36:01 AM1 trades$20 min
2/12/2026, 8:41:21 AM12 trades$4844 min
2/12/2026, 9:30:21 AM2 trades$45 min
2/12/2026, 9:40:27 AM4 trades$1215 min
2/12/2026, 10:00:47 AM1 trades$40 min
2/12/2026, 10:21:23 AM3 trades$109 min
2/12/2026, 10:35:31 AM2 trades$85 min
2/12/2026, 10:45:35 AM1 trades$80 min
2/12/2026, 10:50:39 AM2 trades$85 min
2/12/2026, 11:00:55 AM2 trades$85 min
2/12/2026, 11:35:13 AM2 trades$1485 min
2/12/2026, 11:45:27 AM2 trades$2465 min
2/12/2026, 11:55:23 AM2 trades$795 min
2/12/2026, 12:05:33 PM2 trades$1485 min
2/12/2026, 12:15:21 PM2 trades$895 min
2/12/2026, 12:25:37 PM2 trades$1485 min
2/12/2026, 12:35:27 PM1 trades$590 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
02-12
02-16
02-27
03-26
04-21
05-16
06-02

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
12.2% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event