Polydata

@Michie

#3484

0xed2239a9150c3920000d0094d28fa51c7db03dd0

594d· 13 markets · 2380 tradesVol: $8,450,9632026-05-22T19:58
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

84
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 69%19/20
Profit Factor 89.03x15/15
Sharpe 0.50810/15
Sortino 773751917.73610/10
EV $+11744.11110/10
HHI 35190/10
Profit Days 75%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Michie is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranking 34th globally by net profit with over $3 million earned from nearly 2,400 trades across 13 markets. With a smart score of 84/100, Michie demonstrates consistent profitability and a strong presence in the platform’s trading community over 88 days of activity. Despite a portfolio value currently at zero, Michie’s cumulative volume of $8.45 million highlights substantial engagement and experience.

Michie’s trading style appears focused and disciplined, reflected in a 75% win rate and a profit factor of 7.72, indicating a high reward-to-risk ratio. The trader employs a semi-automated approach, combining bot-driven and manual trades, which likely supports timely entries and exits. Michie avoids weather markets and refrains from selling, suggesting a preference for hold strategies and dollar-cost averaging, as supported by the “DCA Master” badge. The Sharpe ratio of 0.51 points to moderate risk-adjusted returns, with no recorded drawdown duration, underscoring effective risk management.

Key strengths for Michie include strong consistency, high profitability, and a robust win streak, making this trader well-regarded on Polymarket. Potential risks involve the reliance on a semi-bot strategy that may limit adaptability in highly volatile conditions. The absence of equity trend data and a zero portfolio value could also imply recent complete cash-out or reset, which warrants monitoring for future trading behavior.

Badges

9
Sniper
Win Rate 69%
Profitable
PnL $+3,095,008
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 183.1 entries/market
Win Streak
5 wins in a row
Whale
$2,142,654
Consistent
3/4 days
High Roller
$24,348/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

1
🏛️ POLITICS#14$3,095,008Vol: $8,450,963

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$3,095,008
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$8,450,963
Total Redeem
$6,730,595
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
13
total markets
Trades
2380B / 0S
Daily Volume
$24,348
Account Age
594d
since Oct 5, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
75%
6W / 2L events
Realized PnL
$3,095,271
Win Rate
75%
9W / 2L
Profit Factor
7.72x
Avg Win
$604,784
Avg Loss
$-352,425

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $5,209,346 (109.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$4,944,209
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential E$157,445
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?$107,692
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?$61,895
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?$54,660
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? $47,150
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?$33,068
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?$19,200
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election?$17,735

Top Losers

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$-704,534
Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?$-317

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.508
Sortino
inf
HHI
3519
Concentrated
EV per $1
$11744.111
Kelly %
70.1%
Half-Kelly
35.0%
Top-1 market
43.8%
Top-5 markets
93.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
207.1
Very active
Markets / Day
1.1
Active Hours
23/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
8s
between trades
Avg Gap
5.6m
between trades
Night Trading
18%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
5.20
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
5.6

Bot Detection

#6
60
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
55% < 10s — regular intervalSize CV 5.20 — diverse, typical for human18% at night — different timezone?23/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.19 — human randomness207 trades/day — automation

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
183.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
0 entries
<=2
0 entries
<=5
2 entries
<=10
4 entries
<=20
6 entries
<=50
10 entries
>50
3 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)0.2%
Mid (20-55c)81.6%
High (>55c)18.2%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 54%

Other$4,738,204

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
8

Single bracket

<=1
3 brackets
<=2
8 brackets
<=3
8 brackets
<=4
8 brackets
<=5
8 brackets
<=8
8 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/6/2024, 5:46:11 AM2 trades$2882 min
10/6/2024, 6:19:31 AM2 trades$1020 min
10/6/2024, 7:31:52 AM2 trades$2164 min
10/6/2024, 8:13:49 AM1 trades$1010 min
10/7/2024, 2:14:51 PM45 trades$165,03324 min
10/7/2024, 2:45:41 PM13 trades$125,2048 min
10/7/2024, 3:06:43 PM2 trades$1383 min
10/7/2024, 3:18:01 PM4 trades$70,2269 min
10/7/2024, 3:34:19 PM2 trades$2,3543 min
10/7/2024, 3:44:57 PM5 trades$80,3859 min
10/7/2024, 3:59:35 PM1 trades$16,8000 min
10/7/2024, 4:39:37 PM6 trades$3,5681 min
10/7/2024, 5:06:00 PM1 trades$1,2090 min
10/7/2024, 5:35:46 PM1 trades$7050 min
10/7/2024, 5:41:42 PM10 trades$3,4427 min
10/7/2024, 6:19:12 PM73 trades$16,24536 min
10/7/2024, 7:33:08 PM2 trades$2962 min
10/7/2024, 7:59:06 PM1 trades$00 min
10/7/2024, 8:10:26 PM1 trades$15,6900 min
10/8/2024, 7:11:46 PM5 trades$13,3501 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
11-04
11-05
11-08
01-31

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 183.1/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event