Polydata

@Miserable-Poison

#2,979,63573

0x0346afae2603313d2bbee96b628536c8cbe352a5

76d· 11656 markets · 15860 tradesVol: $233,064,5972026-07-06T07:28
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

73
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 24%0/20
Profit Factor 29.05x15/15
Sharpe 0.67813/15
Sortino 90.24210/10
EV $+18.99810/10
HHI 43810/10
Profit Days 53%6/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Miserable-Poison is an active trader on Polymarket with a substantial footprint, executing 15,860 trades across 1,206 markets over 72 days. Despite the high volume of $233 million traded, they currently hold a net PnL of approximately -$963,000, placing them at rank #2,979,635 on the global leaderboard. Their portfolio value stands at $390,215, supported by a smart score of 73/100, indicating above-average decision-making abilities.

This trader favors a contrarian and automated trading style, as reflected in their badges and a bot score of 70/100. Miserable-Poison tends to avoid weather markets and does not engage in selling positions, suggesting a preference for holding through market fluctuations. Their win rate of 58.5% combined with a profit factor of 0.62 implies a moderate risk profile with frequent small gains but larger losses. The stable equity trend and zero-day max drawdown duration point to consistent trading activity without prolonged downturns.

Miserable-Poison’s strengths include disciplined dollar-cost averaging and holding positions long-term, which may help mitigate volatility. However, the significant negative net PnL and low profit factor raise concerns about overall profitability and risk management. Their contrarian approach could be advantageous in certain market conditions but may also expose them to outsized losses if trends persist. Traders observing Miserable-Poison on Polymarket should note both the persistence and the challenges evident in their trading record.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Lottery Player
35% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
55% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 13.2 entries/market
Bot
Score 70/100
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
Whale
$3,754,431
High Roller
$52,145/day
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

1
SPORTS#1,806,310$-963,093Vol: $233,064,597

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-963,093
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$233,064,597
Total Redeem
$2,307,579
Portfolio
$390,215
Predictions
11656
total markets
Trades
15860B / 0S
Daily Volume
$52,145
Account Age
76d
since Apr 21, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$-638,153
Vol: $1,566,944
Week
$-638,153
Vol: $5,921,420
Month
$-567,950
Vol: $33,683,409
All Time
$-963,093
Vol: $233,064,597

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
18%
155W / 715L events
Realized PnL
$23,053,292
Win Rate
59%
24W / 17L
Profit Factor
0.62x
Avg Win
$19,862
Avg Loss
$-44,865

Top Winners

Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?$115,262
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?$90,638
Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?$75,522
Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?$59,738
Mexico vs. England: O/U 1.5$23,444
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 1.5$23,201
Mexico vs. England: Draw at halftime?$18,154
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 0.5$13,777
Mexico vs. England: O/U 5.5$11,094
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 4.5$10,687

Top Losers

Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?$-475,579
Will England win on 2026-07-05?$-119,860
Mexico leading at halftime?$-82,606
England leading at halftime?$-41,123
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)$-14,773
Mexico vs. England: O/U 6.5$-8,163
Mexico vs. England: O/U 4.5$-6,308
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)$-4,846
Spread: England (-1.5)$-2,859
Brazil vs. Norway: Draw at halftime?$-2,093

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.677
Sortino
90.242
HHI
438
Diversified
EV per $1
$18.998
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
13.6%
Top-5 markets
36.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
230.9
Very active
Markets / Day
17.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
18s
between trades
Avg Gap
5.5m
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
4.64
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
3 min
Avg Trades / Session
3.5

Bot Detection

#6
70
BOT (automated trading)HIGH probability

8 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
HIGH
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
HIGH
Median gap 18s — typical for humanSize CV 4.64 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.11 — human randomness231 trades/day — automation18 markets/day — mass coverage1454 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
13.2
Heavy DCA
<=1
392 entries
<=2
599 entries
<=5
865 entries
<=10
1009 entries
<=20
1097 entries
<=50
1152 entries
>50
54 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)35.2%
Mid (20-55c)23.1%
High (>55c)41.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 19.3%

Paris$0
Seoul$0
Shanghai$0
Chongqing$0
Wuhan$0
Toronto$0
Los Angeles$0
Atlanta$0
São Paulo$0
Houston$0
Dallas$0
Chicago$0
Seattle$0
Madrid$0
Miami$0
New York City$0
Shenzhen$0
Milan$0

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.6
Events covered
741

Single bracket

<=1
460 brackets
<=2
648 brackets
<=3
716 brackets
<=4
730 brackets
<=5
734 brackets
<=8
735 brackets
>8
6 brackets

Sessions

#12
4/28/2026, 2:34:46 PM1 trades$40 min
4/28/2026, 2:40:34 PM1 trades$30 min
4/28/2026, 2:48:28 PM3 trades$831 min
4/28/2026, 3:06:28 PM2 trades$544 min
4/28/2026, 3:27:24 PM1 trades$5900 min
4/28/2026, 3:32:36 PM2 trades$1920 min
4/28/2026, 3:52:32 PM3 trades$1368 min
5/5/2026, 7:39:32 AM1 trades$2690 min
5/5/2026, 8:15:38 AM1 trades$130 min
5/5/2026, 8:40:14 AM2 trades$61 min
5/5/2026, 8:56:54 AM2 trades$13 min
5/5/2026, 9:24:04 AM25 trades$30332 min
5/5/2026, 10:01:02 AM8 trades$32413 min
5/5/2026, 11:16:30 AM9 trades$1421 min
5/5/2026, 11:23:04 AM4 trades$148 min
5/5/2026, 11:38:54 AM1 trades$00 min
5/5/2026, 11:45:52 AM1 trades$00 min
5/5/2026, 12:31:14 PM4 trades$32 min
5/5/2026, 12:46:16 PM1 trades$00 min
5/5/2026, 11:29:36 PM9 trades$711 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
04-28
05-14
05-25
06-06
06-17
06-28
07-06

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 13.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.6 br/event