Polydata
Moist-Sanction

@Moist-Sanction

#2,181,82038

0xfefa1281f22e9efffa173c12088bf7cccea3814a

260d· 255 markets · 484 tradesVol: $3,906 @FarhanOnChain2026-07-02T13:48
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

38
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 51%11/20
Profit Factor 1.03x3/15
Sharpe 0.0190/15
Sortino 0.0360/10
EV $+0.21210/10
HHI 11810/10
Profit Days 44%3/10
DD/Peak 96%0/10

Summary

Moist-Sanction is a moderately active Polymarket trader with 484 trades across 244 markets over 430 days. Ranked #2,181,820 globally by net PnL, their overall performance shows a net loss of $35.04 on a total volume of $3,906. With a below-average Smart Score of 38 and a portfolio value of $4.46, Moist-Sanction’s equity trend has been declining, reflecting challenges in maintaining profitability.

This trader exhibits a balanced risk profile, maintaining a modest 51.8% win rate and a profit factor of 1.14, suggesting slightly more gains than losses per trade. Moist-Sanction’s strategy appears manual rather than automated, with a low bot score of 15 and no exposure to weather-related markets. The sell percentage stands at 37%, indicating a moderate exit rate from positions. Their trading style shows some contrarian tendencies, as evidenced by the corresponding badge, and occasional win streaks, but overall timing patterns do not strongly favor consistent gains.

Moist-Sanction’s key strengths lie in their ability to sustain a win rate just above 50% and to occasionally capitalize on streaks. However, the very low Sharpe ratio of 0.02 and a Smart Score below average highlight limited risk-adjusted returns and possible inefficiencies in trade selection or timing. The downward equity trend and negative net PnL suggest that without strategic adjustments, Moist-Sanction may continue to struggle on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

2
Contrarian
73% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
12 wins in a row

Categories

3
CRYPTO#886,145$-2Vol: $2,378
SPORTS#1,477,522$-33Vol: $1,519
🏛️ POLITICS#816,512$-1Vol: $9

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-35
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$3,906
Total Redeem
$195
Portfolio
$4
Predictions
255
total markets
Trades
303B / 181S
Daily Volume
$1
Account Age
260d
since Oct 15, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$10
Vol: $222
Month
$-2
Vol: $24
All Time
$-35
Vol: $3,906

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
53%
123W / 110L events
Realized PnL
$20
Win Rate
52%
117W / 108L
Profit Factor
1.14x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-1

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $21 (119.4% of PnL)

Top Winners

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$9
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9AM ET$5
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$4
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$4
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9?$4
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$3

Top Losers

Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?$-7
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$-4
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3AM ET$-3
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$-3
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$-3
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$-3
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 8?$-2

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.019
Sortino
0.036
HHI
118
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.212
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
5.1%
Top-5 markets
16.6%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
21/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
8:00 UTC
Median Gap
7.3m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.7h
between trades
Night Trading
1%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.29
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 438s — typical for humanSize CV 1.29 — diverse, typical for human1% at night — normal sleep pattern21/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.68 — semi-mechanical

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 8:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.2
Single entry
<=1
199 entries
<=2
234 entries
<=5
244 entries
<=10
244 entries
<=20
244 entries
<=50
244 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)24.4%
Mid (20-55c)53.8%
High (>55c)21.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 63.3%

Other$18
Paris$-1

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
223

Single bracket

<=1
217 brackets
<=2
221 brackets
<=3
222 brackets
<=4
222 brackets
<=5
222 brackets
<=8
222 brackets
>8
1 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/28/2025, 6:49:35 AM2 trades$21 min
10/28/2025, 7:33:41 AM1 trades$10 min
10/28/2025, 7:40:59 AM3 trades$54 min
10/28/2025, 8:17:27 AM4 trades$44 min
10/28/2025, 8:39:53 AM1 trades$20 min
10/28/2025, 9:46:05 AM2 trades$44 min
10/28/2025, 10:17:37 AM1 trades$20 min
10/28/2025, 10:30:49 AM1 trades$50 min
10/28/2025, 1:29:59 PM1 trades$60 min
10/28/2025, 4:33:39 PM2 trades$212 min
10/28/2025, 5:05:01 PM1 trades$50 min
10/28/2025, 5:18:53 PM3 trades$424 min
10/28/2025, 5:54:49 PM1 trades$10 min
10/29/2025, 11:52:55 AM1 trades$30 min
10/29/2025, 12:00:47 PM3 trades$57 min
10/29/2025, 12:22:49 PM1 trades$30 min
10/29/2025, 12:32:51 PM2 trades$32 min
10/29/2025, 12:52:27 PM1 trades$30 min
10/29/2025, 12:57:29 PM1 trades$20 min
10/29/2025, 1:27:57 PM2 trades$23 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
02-04
02-13
04-11
06-16
06-26
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
37.4% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.2/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event