Polydata
Moist-Sanction

@Moist-Sanction

#1,882,22723

0xfefa1281f22e9efffa173c12088bf7cccea3814a

217d· 185 markets · 378 tradesVol: $2,178 @FarhanOnChain2026-05-18T14:54
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

23
Below Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 52%11/20
Profit Factor 0.86x1/15
HHI 31510/10
Profit Days 34%1/10
DD/Peak 339%0/10

Summary

Moist-Sanction is a moderately active trader on Polymarket, with 378 trades across 185 markets over 430 days. Despite significant activity, their overall net PnL stands at a negative $19.98, placing them at rank #1,882,227 on the global PnL leaderboard. Their performance metrics, including a below-average Smart Score of 23/100 and a profit factor under 1 at 0.86, indicate challenges in consistently generating profits.

This trader exhibits a balanced win rate of 50.8%, suggesting roughly equal success and failure in their trades. Moist-Sanction does not focus on any specific market segment, notably having zero exposure to weather markets, and maintains a conservative sell rate of 38%. Their trading style appears manual, as reflected by a low bot score, and lacks strong momentum, evidenced by an equity trend that is declining and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.16. The relatively short max drawdown duration of zero days points to limited recent risk exposure.

Moist-Sanction’s key strength lies in their contrarian approach and occasional win streaks, which suggest an ability to capitalize on market sentiment shifts. However, the persistent downward equity trend and negative profit factor highlight risks of sustained losses. Their overall below-average analytics profile and declining portfolio value warrant caution for traders analyzing Moist-Sanction’s activity on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

2
Contrarian
68% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
10 wins in a row

Categories

3
CRYPTO#1,144,069$-19Vol: $2,169
🏛️ POLITICS#794,906$-1Vol: $9
SPORTS#742,202$-0Vol: $0

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$-20
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$2,178
Total Redeem
$182
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
185
total markets
Trades
236B / 142S
Daily Volume
$2
Account Age
217d
since Oct 15, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$-1
Vol: $0
Week
$-1
Vol: $0
Month
$-13
Vol: $112
All Time
$-20
Vol: $2,178

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
50%
92W / 91L events
Realized PnL
$-19
Win Rate
51%
93W / 90L
Profit Factor
0.86x
Avg Win
$1
Avg Loss
$-2

Top Winners

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$9
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9AM ET$5
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$4
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$4
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9?$4
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET$3

Top Losers

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$-21
Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?$-7
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$-4
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$-4
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3AM ET$-3
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$-3
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$-3
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$-3
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?$-3

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
-0.158
Sortino
-0.262
HHI
315
Diversified
EV per $1
$-9.798
Kelly %
0.0%
Half-Kelly
0.0%
Top-1 market
14.6%
Top-5 markets
27.7%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
2.0
Moderate
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
18/24
Extended
Peak Hour
16:00 UTC
Median Gap
6.5m
between trades
Avg Gap
1.2h
between trades
Night Trading
1%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.42
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
2 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.7

Bot Detection

#6
15
HUMAN (manual trading)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 388s — typical for humanSize CV 2.42 — diverse, typical for human1% at night — normal sleep pattern18/24 hours — extended daySession CV 0.70 — semi-mechanical

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 16:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
1.3
Single entry
<=1
148 entries
<=2
175 entries
<=5
185 entries
<=10
185 entries
<=20
185 entries
<=50
185 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)18.2%
Mid (20-55c)53.8%
High (>55c)28%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 51.3%

Other$-21

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1
Events covered
182

Single bracket

<=1
180 brackets
<=2
181 brackets
<=3
182 brackets
<=4
182 brackets
<=5
182 brackets
<=8
182 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
10/28/2025, 6:49:35 AM2 trades$21 min
10/28/2025, 7:11:59 AM3 trades$46 min
10/28/2025, 7:24:23 AM1 trades$10 min
10/28/2025, 7:33:41 AM1 trades$10 min
10/28/2025, 7:40:59 AM3 trades$54 min
10/28/2025, 7:54:49 AM4 trades$38 min
10/28/2025, 8:09:29 AM1 trades$10 min
10/28/2025, 8:15:13 AM5 trades$66 min
10/28/2025, 8:39:53 AM1 trades$20 min
10/28/2025, 9:46:05 AM2 trades$44 min
10/28/2025, 10:17:37 AM1 trades$20 min
10/28/2025, 10:30:49 AM1 trades$50 min
10/28/2025, 10:36:53 AM1 trades$50 min
10/28/2025, 10:45:41 AM1 trades$60 min
10/28/2025, 12:48:43 PM1 trades$60 min
10/28/2025, 12:59:43 PM3 trades$83 min
10/28/2025, 1:29:59 PM1 trades$60 min
10/28/2025, 4:33:39 PM2 trades$212 min
10/28/2025, 5:05:01 PM1 trades$50 min
10/28/2025, 5:18:53 PM3 trades$424 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
12-31
02-05
02-10
02-15
04-01
01-01

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
37.6% sell
DCA Style
SINGLE
avg 1.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1 br/event