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@MtnMark

#11,77546

0x70ffe7b3911e0a9474029a42ab8b2f57b799b65f

116d· 216 markets · 3789 tradesVol: $895,3282026-07-08T15:54
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

46
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 27%0/20
Profit Factor 1.83x13/15
Sharpe 0.1182/15
Sortino 0.3353/10
EV $+0.74610/10
HHI 14410/10
Profit Days 33%1/10
DD/Peak 36%7/10

Summary

MtnMark is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with a total of 3,789 trades across 216 markets over 461 days. Ranking #11,775 globally by profit and loss, MtnMark has generated a net PnL of $12,140.76 on a total volume of $895,328, reflecting a profit factor of 4.63. Despite a relatively low win rate of 29%, their overall profitability and average Smart Score of 46 indicate consistent, if cautious, market engagement.

The trader’s strategy appears to blend contrarian and lottery-style bets, as suggested by their badges and a low sell percentage of 12%. MtnMark tends to maintain positions rather than actively flipping them, indicated by zero days of max drawdown duration and a semi-bot trading style that mixes automation with manual input. Their Sharpe Ratio of 0.12 and downward equity trend suggest a low risk tolerance but also highlight possible challenges in capital growth over time.

MtnMark’s key strengths include disciplined profit-taking and a high profit factor, signaling efficient trade management despite the low win rate. However, the declining portfolio value and modest Sharpe Ratio raise concerns about sustainability and volatility control. Their semi-bot approach could provide stability but might limit adaptability in fast-moving markets. Overall, MtnMark demonstrates a balanced but cautious approach on Polymarket, with room for improving portfolio growth consistency.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

4
Profitable
PnL $+12,141
Lottery Player
92% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
99% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
5 wins in a row

Categories

8
🏛️ POLITICS#1,571,762$-466Vol: $276,495
💰 FINANCE#22,693$62Vol: $259,715
SPORTS#1,723,242$-357Vol: $210,213
🌤️ WEATHER#112$14,839Vol: $67,117
📢 MENTIONS#163,396$-206Vol: $25,107
📈 ECONOMICS#653,180$-163Vol: $15,708
🎭 CULTURE#753,093$-52Vol: $3,100
CRYPTO#1,241,830$-21Vol: $2,010

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$12,141
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$895,328
Total Redeem
$2,585
Portfolio
$2,613
Predictions
216
total markets
Trades
3347B / 442S
Daily Volume
$54
Account Age
116d
since Mar 17, 2026

Periods

#2
Today
$109
Vol: $0
Week
$225
Vol: $73
Month
$-3,079
Vol: $18,604
All Time
$12,141
Vol: $895,328

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
29%
32W / 77L events
Realized PnL
$26,066
Win Rate
29%
20W / 49L
Profit Factor
4.63x
Avg Win
$933
Avg Loss
$-82

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $16,710 (114.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?$12,961
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?$2,751
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?$998
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?$797
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?$220
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?$187
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?$169
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?$146
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$134
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of $89

Top Losers

Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026$-922
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026$-508
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026$-457
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026$-442
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$-220
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping$-131
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of t$-112
US forces enter Iran by March 31?$-93
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?$-79
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?$-72

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.118
Sortino
0.335
HHI
144
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.746
Kelly %
19.5%
Half-Kelly
9.8%
Top-1 market
3.7%
Top-5 markets
15.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
34.3
Active
Markets / Day
2.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
23:00 UTC
Median Gap
4.4m
between trades
Avg Gap
45.4m
between trades
Night Trading
28%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.54
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
2.6

Bot Detection

#6
45
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 264s — typical for humanSize CV 2.54 — diverse, typical for human28% at night — bot never sleeps24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.01 — human randomness34 trades/day — suspiciously high

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 23:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
15.5
Heavy DCA
<=1
68 entries
<=2
94 entries
<=5
147 entries
<=10
163 entries
<=20
179 entries
<=50
197 entries
>50
19 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)91.7%
Mid (20-55c)7.5%
High (>55c)0.8%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 81.7%

Other$14,620

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
2
Events covered
108

Moderate coverage

<=1
72 brackets
<=2
79 brackets
<=3
91 brackets
<=4
99 brackets
<=5
101 brackets
<=8
106 brackets
>8
2 brackets

Sessions

#12
3/17/2026, 5:17:57 AM5 trades$3244 min
3/17/2026, 5:40:13 AM1 trades$180 min
3/17/2026, 5:34:43 PM1 trades$1490 min
3/17/2026, 5:49:27 PM1 trades$00 min
3/18/2026, 1:30:59 AM1 trades$300 min
3/18/2026, 9:03:31 AM1 trades$00 min
3/18/2026, 4:49:47 PM1 trades$10 min
3/18/2026, 10:04:55 PM1 trades$40 min
3/18/2026, 11:15:57 PM1 trades$420 min
3/18/2026, 11:51:41 PM1 trades$10 min
3/19/2026, 3:03:57 AM2 trades$20 min
3/19/2026, 9:26:25 PM1 trades$30 min
3/19/2026, 11:17:11 PM1 trades$90 min
3/20/2026, 6:31:53 AM2 trades$40 min
3/20/2026, 11:06:15 AM1 trades$60 min
3/20/2026, 2:43:29 PM6 trades$163 min
3/20/2026, 2:58:05 PM1 trades$40 min
3/20/2026, 3:23:15 PM1 trades$40 min
3/20/2026, 8:23:43 PM1 trades$70 min
3/21/2026, 8:33:39 PM1 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
05-12
05-25
06-07
06-20
09-30

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
11.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 15.5/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 2 br/event