Polydata

@Muddy-Wifi

#12771

0x2b3ff45c91540e46fae1e0c72f61f4b049453446

559d· 113 markets · 2338 tradesVol: $13,125,2772026-05-16T03:12
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

71
Very Good
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 64%17/20
Profit Factor 1.48x9/15
Sharpe 0.2825/15
Sortino 0.6186/10
EV $+3.17410/10
HHI 37210/10
Profit Days 48%5/10
DD/Peak 20%10/10

Summary

Muddy-Wifi is a highly active trader on Polymarket, ranked #127 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $940,026.57 over 179 days and more than 2,300 trades. Their total trading volume exceeds $13 million across 113 markets, reflecting consistent engagement. With a Smart Score of 71, Muddy-Wifi demonstrates strong trading performance, highlighted by a 67.3% win rate and a profit factor of 1.76. Despite this, their portfolio value currently stands at zero, and their Sharpe ratio is a moderate 0.28.

Muddy-Wifi’s trading style appears focused on selective market participation with low sell activity (2%), indicating a tendency to hold positions rather than frequently exiting. They exhibit a disciplined approach, supported by badges like Sniper and DCA Master, suggesting precision entries and dollar-cost averaging. Their low bot score implies human-driven decisions with relatively fast interface use. The absence of weather market trades shows a preference for other event types, and their trading spans a broad range of markets, indicating diversified interests and a moderate risk profile.

Strengths for Muddy-Wifi include a solid win rate and profitability combined with consistent volume, which underpin their strong Polymarket presence. However, their equity trend is currently downward, signaling possible recent challenges or increased market volatility. The low Sharpe ratio and zero portfolio value might raise concerns about risk-adjusted returns and capital deployment. Overall, Muddy-Wifi balances experience and effective strategy with some caution warranted due to recent performance trends.

Badges

8
Sniper
Win Rate 64%
Profitable
PnL $+940,027
Diamond Hands
2% sell
DCA Master
avg 20.3 entries/market
Win Streak
15 wins in a row
Whale
$6,815,012
High Roller
$38,073/day
Cool Head
DD 20%

Categories

1
SPORTS#73$940,027Vol: $13,125,277

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$940,027
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$13,125,277
Total Redeem
$6,183,526
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
113
total markets
Trades
2297B / 41S
Daily Volume
$38,073
Account Age
559d
since Nov 5, 2024

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
64%
56W / 31L events
Realized PnL
$1,236,145
Win Rate
67%
72W / 35L
Profit Factor
1.76x
Avg Win
$40,022
Avg Loss
$-46,865

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $653,477 (52.6% of PnL)

Top Winners

Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines$347,110
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-12.5)$187,169
Spread: Hornets (-15.5)$119,197
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals$108,643
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals$108,405
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5)$90,828
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-1.5)$82,781
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-5.5)$72,631
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers$72,138
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)$70,152

Top Losers

LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs$-393,970
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators$-231,039
Spread: Florida Gators (-10.5)$-129,113
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A$-86,029
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)$-82,115
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)$-69,694
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-5.5)$-58,256
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-31.5)$-51,401
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-20.5)$-49,934
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5)$-49,838

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.282
Sortino
0.618
HHI
372
Diversified
EV per $1
$3.174
Kelly %
11.9%
Half-Kelly
5.9%
Top-1 market
14.5%
Top-5 markets
32.3%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
20.0
Active
Markets / Day
1.0
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
13:00 UTC
Median Gap
10s
between trades
Avg Gap
10.4m
between trades
Night Trading
21%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
7.86
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
10.8

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 10s — suspiciously fastSize CV 7.86 — diverse, typical for human21% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.28 — human randomness20 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 13:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
20.3
Heavy DCA
<=1
40 entries
<=2
52 entries
<=5
60 entries
<=10
74 entries
<=20
80 entries
<=50
102 entries
>50
11 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)12.6%
Mid (20-55c)49.7%
High (>55c)37.7%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 83.8%

Other$956,104
Los Angeles$243,893
Miami$39,160
Houston$2,141

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
87

Single bracket

<=1
68 brackets
<=2
82 brackets
<=3
86 brackets
<=4
86 brackets
<=5
87 brackets
<=8
87 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/13/2025, 4:45:53 PM1 trades$2,9960 min
12/13/2025, 5:24:09 PM1 trades$3,0240 min
12/13/2025, 5:29:21 PM2 trades$3,0241 min
12/13/2025, 8:25:49 PM1 trades$6190 min
12/13/2025, 11:54:41 PM2 trades$1,5024 min
12/14/2025, 1:25:55 AM1 trades$1,3410 min
12/14/2025, 1:34:07 AM1 trades$1,3410 min
12/14/2025, 5:36:51 AM2 trades$5,2343 min
12/14/2025, 3:14:13 PM1 trades$3,0430 min
12/14/2025, 4:24:57 PM1 trades$3,3410 min
12/14/2025, 4:49:05 PM1 trades$3,3410 min
12/14/2025, 9:26:33 PM1 trades$11,5080 min
12/14/2025, 9:31:35 PM1 trades$4160 min
12/14/2025, 9:41:05 PM10 trades$4,9924 min
12/15/2025, 12:39:35 AM1 trades$6,1000 min
12/15/2025, 12:50:19 AM2 trades$12,5932 min
12/23/2025, 11:47:11 PM9 trades$1,2508 min
12/24/2025, 2:23:09 AM1 trades$1,2500 min
12/24/2025, 2:30:33 AM1 trades$7500 min
12/25/2025, 6:35:27 PM1 trades$5,0020 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-13
12-25
03-19
03-23
03-29
04-04
04-10
06-10

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
1.8% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 20.3/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event