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@Muddy-Wifi

#12948

0x2b3ff45c91540e46fae1e0c72f61f4b049453446

598d· 122 markets · 3394 tradesVol: $17,003,5682026-06-21T06:10
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

48
Average
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 63%16/20
Profit Factor 1.15x4/15
Sharpe 0.0852/15
Sortino 0.1101/10
EV $+0.37310/10
HHI 30810/10
Profit Days 49%5/10
DD/Peak 71%0/10

Summary

Muddy-Wifi ranks #129 on Polymarket’s global profit and loss leaderboard with a net PnL of over $1 million. They have executed 3,394 trades across 122 markets, generating a total volume exceeding $17 million over 200 active days. Their Smart Score is an average 48/100, reflecting steady but not exceptional trading performance, while their portfolio value currently sits at zero, indicating all positions may be closed.

This trader favors a diverse range of markets, avoiding weather markets entirely, and shows a preference for short-term trades with a relatively low sell percentage of 11%. Muddy-Wifi exhibits a moderately conservative risk profile, supported by a profit factor of 2.07 and a win rate of 62.5%. Their Sharpe ratio is low at 0.08, signaling limited risk-adjusted returns. The short max drawdown duration of zero days suggests strong risk management or quick recovery from losses. Muddy-Wifi’s trading style also includes contrarian moves and dollar-cost averaging, consistent with badges like “Contrarian” and “DCA Master.”

Strengths for Muddy-Wifi include a high volume of trades with consistent profitability and disciplined risk control, as indicated by a solid profit factor and quick drawdown recovery. However, an overall downward equity trend raises concerns about sustainability and potential recent underperformance. The low Sharpe ratio and average Smart Score imply that while profitable, the strategy may not be optimized for maximizing risk-adjusted gains in Polymarket’s dynamic environment.

Badges

7
Sniper
Win Rate 63%
Profitable
PnL $+1,044,505
Contrarian
54% entries <$0.50
DCA Master
avg 24.9 entries/market
Win Streak
15 wins in a row
Whale
$8,403,140
High Roller
$42,016/day

Categories

1
SPORTS#56$1,457,517Vol: $15,491,270

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$1,044,505
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$17,003,568
Total Redeem
$7,131,478
Portfolio
$0
Predictions
122
total markets
Trades
3032B / 362S
Daily Volume
$42,016
Account Age
598d
since Nov 5, 2024

Periods

#2
Week
$-102,957
Vol: $0
Month
$104,479
Vol: $3,878,291
All Time
$1,044,505
Vol: $17,003,568

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
63%
59W / 34L events
Realized PnL
$1,523,239
Win Rate
63%
70W / 42L
Profit Factor
2.07x
Avg Win
$52,401
Avg Loss
$-42,288

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,164,458 (61.5% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$630,179
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines$347,110
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-12.5)$187,169
Knicks vs. Spurs$138,695
Spread: Hornets (-15.5)$119,197
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals$108,643
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals$108,405
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5)$90,828
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-1.5)$82,781
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)$78,799

Top Losers

LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs$-393,970
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Florida Gators$-231,039
Spread: Florida Gators (-10.5)$-129,113
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A$-86,029
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)$-82,115
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5)$-69,694
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-25.5)$-58,496
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-5.5)$-58,256
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-31.5)$-51,401
Lakers vs. Rockets$-49,950

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.085
Sortino
0.110
HHI
308
Diversified
EV per $1
$0.373
Kelly %
6.0%
Half-Kelly
3.0%
Top-1 market
11.8%
Top-5 markets
29%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
18.4
Active
Markets / Day
0.7
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
11s
between trades
Avg Gap
8.5m
between trades
Night Trading
20%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
7.92
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
4 min
Avg Trades / Session
10.8

Bot Detection

#6
30
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

6 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 11s — suspiciously fastSize CV 7.91 — diverse, typical for human20% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.23 — human randomness18 trades/day — very active

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
24.9
Heavy DCA
<=1
43 entries
<=2
55 entries
<=5
64 entries
<=10
79 entries
<=20
85 entries
<=50
108 entries
>50
14 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)9.5%
Mid (20-55c)57%
High (>55c)33.4%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 95.4%

Other$1,611,295
Los Angeles$243,893
Miami$39,160
Chicago$0
Houston$-2,414

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.3
Events covered
94

Single bracket

<=1
73 brackets
<=2
89 brackets
<=3
93 brackets
<=4
93 brackets
<=5
94 brackets
<=8
94 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
12/13/2025, 4:45:53 PM1 trades$2,9960 min
12/13/2025, 5:24:09 PM1 trades$3,0240 min
12/13/2025, 5:29:21 PM2 trades$3,0241 min
12/13/2025, 8:25:49 PM1 trades$6190 min
12/13/2025, 11:54:41 PM2 trades$1,5024 min
12/14/2025, 1:25:55 AM1 trades$1,3410 min
12/14/2025, 1:34:07 AM1 trades$1,3410 min
12/14/2025, 5:36:51 AM2 trades$5,2343 min
12/14/2025, 3:14:13 PM1 trades$3,0430 min
12/14/2025, 4:24:57 PM1 trades$3,3410 min
12/14/2025, 4:49:05 PM1 trades$3,3410 min
12/14/2025, 9:26:33 PM1 trades$11,5080 min
12/14/2025, 9:31:35 PM1 trades$4160 min
12/14/2025, 9:41:05 PM10 trades$4,9924 min
12/15/2025, 12:39:35 AM1 trades$6,1000 min
12/15/2025, 12:50:19 AM2 trades$12,5932 min
12/23/2025, 11:47:11 PM9 trades$1,2508 min
12/24/2025, 2:23:09 AM1 trades$1,2500 min
12/24/2025, 2:30:33 AM1 trades$7500 min
12/25/2025, 6:35:27 PM1 trades$5,0020 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-13
01-02
03-21
03-28
04-04
04-12
06-11

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
10.7% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 24.9/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.3 br/event