Polydata
Murky-Freak

@Murky-Freak

#15,08397

0x99984e22205053950eb25453779267bcc1aee858

591d· 2158 markets · 2180 tradesVol: $234,5652026-07-31T00:24
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

97
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 97%20/20
Profit Factor 176.78x15/15
Sharpe 0.65512/15
Sortino 60338.59810/10
EV $+16.69010/10
HHI 6510/10
Profit Days 100%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Murky-Freak is a moderately active trader on Polymarket with 2,180 trades across 314 markets over 868 days. Ranked #15083 globally by net PnL, they have generated $9,709.06 in profits from a total volume of $234,565. Their smart score of 97/100 places them in the elite tier, highlighting consistent and skillful performance. Despite a relatively modest portfolio value of $506.71, Murky-Freak maintains a stable equity trend with no recorded drawdown duration.

Murky-Freak demonstrates a high win rate of 96.4% and a profit factor of 147.42, indicating a strong ability to select winning positions. Their approach appears balanced with a sell percentage close to half at 47%, suggesting a mix of holding and timely exits. The lack of activity in weather markets and a low bot score imply a human-driven, possibly discretionary trading style. The moderate Sharpe ratio of 0.66 indicates moderate risk-adjusted returns, consistent with a contrarian and sniper strategy focused on select opportunities rather than broad market coverage.

The key strengths of Murky-Freak include exceptional accuracy and profitability, supported by elite rankings and badges such as Sniper and Profitable. However, their relatively low portfolio value and flat equity trend may signal limited capital deployment or cautious scaling. The low bot score suggests manual trading, which could impact scalability and response speed in volatile conditions. Overall, Murky-Freak’s data points to a skilled, disciplined trader with strong execution but potential constraints in growth and automation on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

6
Sniper
Win Rate 97%
Profitable
PnL $+9,709
Lottery Player
48% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
82% entries <$0.50
Win Streak
95 wins in a row
Consistent
121/121 days

Categories

9
🏛️ POLITICS#9,854$2,571Vol: $67,613
SPORTS#23,696$1,845Vol: $45,785
CRYPTO#21,433$1,847Vol: $32,191
🎭 CULTURE#4,435$1,203Vol: $31,599
💰 FINANCE#3,343$1,329Vol: $26,207
💻 TECH#4,907$143Vol: $6,460
📈 ECONOMICS#8,943$175Vol: $5,767
🌤️ WEATHER#5,513$157Vol: $4,023
📢 MENTIONS#5,847$105Vol: $2,649

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$9,709
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$234,565
Total Redeem
$205
Portfolio
$507
Predictions
2158
total markets
Trades
1160B / 1020S
Daily Volume
$7
Account Age
591d
since Dec 16, 2024

Periods

#2
Week
$-27
Vol: $1,777
Month
$349
Vol: $11,543
All Time
$9,709
Vol: $234,565

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
98%
259W / 5L events
Realized PnL
$7,232
Win Rate
96%
216W / 8L
Profit Factor
147.42x
Avg Win
$28
Avg Loss
$-5

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $418 (6.9% of PnL)

Top Winners

Will Shilo Sanders play in week 1? $152
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?$134
Did a crypto hedge fund blow up?$132
Ethereum all time high by August 31?$127
Will DraftKings acquire Railbird by October 31?$120
Mike Locksley out as Maryland HC in 2026?$96
Will Ja Morant be traded before the 2026 trade deadline?$93
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?$89
Will Pope Leo XIV publish his encyclical by May 15?$87
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31?$87

Top Losers

Next dildo thrown onto WNBA court is green/yellow?$-27
NHL Stanley Cup Game 4: Overtime?$-5
Pump.fun revenue above $25M in April?$-4
Will Gen.G Esports qualify to Masters Santiago 2026?$-2
Will Saks file Chapter 11 Bankruptcy by January 31?$-2
Databricks vs Salesforce - higher valuation on June 30?$-0
Will Paper Rex qualify to Masters Santiago 2026?$-0
2026 Pro Football Draft: Number of WRs drafted O/U 27.5$-0

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
0.655
Sortino
inf
HHI
65
Diversified
EV per $1
$16.690
Kelly %
95.9%
Half-Kelly
47.9%
Top-1 market
2%
Top-5 markets
8.2%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
4.1
Moderate
Markets / Day
0.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
20:00 UTC
Median Gap
1.3h
between trades
Avg Gap
3.5h
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
1.21
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
1 min
Avg Trades / Session
1.2

Bot Detection

#6
20
LIKELY HUMAN (fast interface)LOW probability

5 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
LOW
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
LOW
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 4688s — typical for humanSize CV 1.21 — diverse, typical for human19% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 0.82 — human randomness

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 20:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
3.7
Moderate DCA
<=1
92 entries
<=2
157 entries
<=5
254 entries
<=10
300 entries
<=20
312 entries
<=50
314 entries
>50
0 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)47.9%
Mid (20-55c)40.5%
High (>55c)11.6%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 43.5%

Other$6,048
Hong Kong$13

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
1.1
Events covered
295

Single bracket

<=1
288 brackets
<=2
293 brackets
<=3
293 brackets
<=4
293 brackets
<=5
293 brackets
<=8
295 brackets
>8
0 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/15/2025, 4:45:02 PM3 trades$93 min
2/15/2025, 6:55:10 PM1 trades$30 min
2/16/2025, 4:04:20 AM1 trades$00 min
2/16/2025, 4:17:26 AM1 trades$00 min
2/16/2025, 4:26:32 AM1 trades$20 min
2/16/2025, 9:47:10 AM2 trades$25 min
2/16/2025, 10:15:07 AM3 trades$34 min
2/16/2025, 10:40:27 AM1 trades$30 min
2/16/2025, 11:41:27 AM1 trades$10 min
2/16/2025, 12:32:49 PM1 trades$10 min
2/16/2025, 12:51:51 PM1 trades$10 min
2/16/2025, 12:58:28 PM1 trades$10 min
2/16/2025, 1:05:58 PM2 trades$23 min
2/16/2025, 3:26:08 PM1 trades$50 min
2/16/2025, 3:39:58 PM1 trades$10 min
2/16/2025, 4:02:44 PM1 trades$10 min
2/16/2025, 4:53:30 PM1 trades$10 min
2/16/2025, 5:50:34 PM1 trades$10 min
2/16/2025, 6:19:30 PM2 trades$24 min
2/16/2025, 6:42:52 PM1 trades$10 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
01-01
06-20
10-01
12-14
04-06
06-30
07-31
11-07

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
ACTIVE SELLER
46.8% sell
DCA Style
MODERATE
avg 3.7/mkt
Hedging
SINGLE
avg 1.1 br/event