Polydata

@Murky-Tights

#6,94094

0x77bcf759a5bbbf604a52d839d5f68ead4c78b91b

212d· 28571 markets · 6086 tradesVol: $24,169,0122026-06-24T20:18
SMART SCORE SYSTEM

Composite trader rating.
0 to 100.

Smart Score aggregates PnL consistency, win rate, risk management, diversification, timing patterns, and trading behavior into a single 0‑100 score. Combined with bot detection that analyzes trade timing gaps, order patterns, and execution speed.

94
Elite
80-100Elite
60-79Diamond
40-59Gold
0-39Standard

Score Components

Win Rate 59%14/20
Profit Factor 411.31x15/15
Sharpe 1.10115/15
Sortino 131.64010/10
EV $+31.40510/10
HHI 26810/10
Profit Days 96%10/10
DD/Peak 0%10/10

Summary

Murky-Tights is an active trader on Polymarket, holding rank #6940 on the global PnL leaderboard with a net profit of $20,609.26. Over 197 days, they have completed 6,086 trades across 377 markets, generating a total volume of over $24 million. Their Smart Score of 94/100 places them in the elite category, reflecting strong trading performance and consistency.

This trader demonstrates a high win rate of 70.2% and a profit factor of 4.08, indicating a disciplined approach with effective risk management. Murky-Tights shows a preference for a broad range of markets rather than focusing on weather-related events, with a stable portfolio value around $18,347. Their trading style balances manual and automated elements, as suggested by a bot score of 50/100, and they exhibit characteristics such as diamond hands and contrarian positioning. The absence of sell orders and a zero-day max drawdown duration suggest a steady, patient timing strategy.

Murky-Tights’ strengths lie in their consistent profitability and ability to maintain low drawdowns, supported by a Sharpe ratio of 1.10. However, the flat equity trend highlights limited recent growth, which may indicate a cautious stance or market conditions limiting upside. Their semi-bot strategy may introduce risks related to automation reliability, but overall, Murky-Tights appears to combine disciplined risk control with a diversified and steady approach on Polymarket.

Analysis based on the last 250 closed positions. Full trading history — coming soon.

Badges

9
Profitable
PnL $+20,609
Lottery Player
36% entries <$0.20
Contrarian
65% entries <$0.50
Diamond Hands
0% sell
DCA Master
avg 16.1 entries/market
Hedger
avg 11.4 brackets/event
Win Streak
6 wins in a row
Consistent
99/103 days
Cool Head
DD 0%

Categories

4
SPORTS#2,306$20,568Vol: $24,167,869
CRYPTO#136,210$38Vol: $968
💻 TECH#34,050$2Vol: $161
🏛️ POLITICS#317,926$1Vol: $13

Overview

#1
Net PnL
$20,609
Polymarket official
Total Volume
$24,169,012
Total Redeem
$34,916
Portfolio
$18,347
Predictions
28571
total markets
Trades
6086B / 0S
Daily Volume
$240
Account Age
212d
since Nov 26, 2025

Periods

#2
Today
$26
Vol: $52,112
Week
$2,799
Vol: $535,597
Month
$10,827
Vol: $1,989,147
All Time
$20,609
Vol: $24,169,012

PnL Analysis

#3
Win Rate (events)
89%
207W / 25L events
Realized PnL
$535,825
Win Rate
70%
33W / 14L
Profit Factor
4.08x
Avg Win
$139
Avg Loss
$-80

Outlier Sensitivity: Top-3 = $1,464 (42.3% of PnL)

Top Winners

Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5$589
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5$456
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5$419
Spread: England (-1.5)$389
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score$359
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)$341
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5$316
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5$204
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5$193
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5$190

Top Losers

Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5$-432
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5$-238
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5$-223
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)$-53
Spread: Croatia (-2.5)$-47
Spread: England (-2.5)$-39
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score$-36
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5$-17
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5$-15
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 2.5$-8

Risk Metrics

#4
Sharpe
1.101
Sortino
131.640
HHI
268
Diversified
EV per $1
$31.405
Kelly %
45.0%
Half-Kelly
22.5%
Top-1 market
8.6%
Top-5 markets
28.1%

Behavior Analysis

#5
Trades / Day
42.5
Active
Markets / Day
2.6
Active Hours
24/24
Around the clock
Peak Hour
19:00 UTC
Median Gap
10s
between trades
Avg Gap
1.6m
between trades
Night Trading
19%
22:00–06:00 UTC
Size Variance
2.05
Variable
Session Statistics
Sessions
50
Avg Duration
7 min
Avg Trades / Session
7.7

Bot Detection

#6
50
SEMI-BOT (bot + manual)MEDIUM probability

7 indicators analyzed

Trade Speed
HIGH
Night Activity
LOW
Active Hours
HIGH
Trade Frequency
MEDIUM
Size Consistency
LOW
Market Coverage
LOW
Median gap 10s — suspiciously fastSize CV 2.05 — diverse, typical for human19% at night — different timezone?24/24 hours — around the clockSession CV 1.09 — human randomness43 trades/day — suspiciously high769 total positions — large-scale activity

Timing Patterns

#7

Peak hour: 19:00 UTC

0
4
8
12
16
20

DCA Analysis

#8
Avg entries/market
16.1
Heavy DCA
<=1
46 entries
<=2
81 entries
<=5
151 entries
<=10
239 entries
<=20
298 entries
<=50
354 entries
>50
23 entries

Price Levels

#9
Low (<20c)35.9%
Mid (20-55c)35.8%
High (>55c)28.3%

City Stats

#10

YES bias: 32%

Other$3,457

Bracket Analysis

#11
Avg brackets/event
11.4
Events covered
33

Multi-bracket hedger

<=1
2 brackets
<=2
2 brackets
<=3
3 brackets
<=4
5 brackets
<=5
6 brackets
<=8
9 brackets
>8
24 brackets

Sessions

#12
2/1/2026, 4:55:48 PM1 trades$20 min
5/29/2026, 9:30:44 PM1 trades$70 min
6/19/2026, 10:10:50 PM1 trades$50 min
6/20/2026, 2:06:07 AM1 trades$90 min
6/20/2026, 2:35:10 AM1 trades$40 min
6/20/2026, 6:03:34 AM1 trades$10 min
6/20/2026, 11:22:50 AM7 trades$172 min
6/20/2026, 11:43:07 AM2 trades$00 min
6/20/2026, 11:56:49 AM6 trades$160 min
6/20/2026, 12:07:31 PM2 trades$40 min
6/20/2026, 12:19:11 PM4 trades$94 min
6/20/2026, 12:28:47 PM6 trades$52 min
6/20/2026, 12:44:14 PM3 trades$70 min
6/20/2026, 1:09:19 PM2 trades$60 min
6/20/2026, 1:41:07 PM5 trades$122 min
6/20/2026, 2:02:04 PM1 trades$10 min
6/20/2026, 2:09:10 PM1 trades$20 min
6/20/2026, 2:37:28 PM2 trades$50 min
6/20/2026, 3:19:22 PM2 trades$22 min
6/20/2026, 3:46:40 PM3 trades$00 min

Equity Curve

#13
Cumulative PnL by market end date Profit Loss Today
12-13
02-24
03-20
04-09
04-26
05-13
06-27
06-28

Faded bars = markets ending in the future (PnL from early exits)

Profile

#14
Specialization
MIXED
0% weather
Holding Style
HOLD
0% sell
DCA Style
HEAVY
avg 16.1/mkt
Hedging
MULTI
avg 11.4 br/event